Today was a good day for the dollar. He rose against most major currencies, with USD/JPY fell back to 102. The data from the US has been relatively good. The reports had little impact on the dollar, which rose after the yield of US government bonds and the overall demand for US assets. Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a record high, while the yield on 10-year US government bonds jumped by 0.7%. Despite the fact that there were no news that would explain today's motion, it is clear that further policy easing in other countries make US assets more attractive.
Yesterday the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates by 0.25% and stated that they will fall even further. In the US, the situation is reversed - Federal Reserve officials say the rise in interest rates in 2016 is still possible. The latest about this said the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco John Williams. Supporters of tight policy even claimed that the rates can be increased in the next month, but I highly doubt it. Also, demand for the dollar can be attributed to tomorrow's release of data on retail sales in the US. As wages rose, while sales of cars fell back, in July it is expected to increase consumer spending. However, I fear that the figure may be disappointing, because gas prices have fallen, and, according to the Johnson Redbook, spending last month decreased. If I'm right, USD/JPY will end the week close to the 101. If I'm wrong, and the index will still be high, it will serve as an argument in support of the policy tightening this year and may return the USD/JPY to the August peak.
No comments:
Post a Comment