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Friday, 16 December 2016

US bulls with new rally

The US dollar continued its bullish run after the Fed raised interest rates. The greenback reached its strongest level in 14 years. For the last three months the dollar index rose by 3%, and for the last 4 months - by nearly 10%.
USD/JPY passed the barrier of 118 and now investors expect next target of 120, so as parity of EUR/USD. Janet Yellen gave a forecast for the new three raises of interest rates next year. This to some extent would lead to major problems for central banks around the world, including higher costs for debt service, higher inflation and falling of exchange rate. Emerging markets were hardest hit by capital outflows in search of higher yields and higher costs for servicing of dollar-denominated debt. In combination with the weak euro, yen and other major currencies this may have negative effects on the world and lead to slower growth, which will eventually overtake also the US economy.
Currently the strong dollar poses a major risk for the US economy, especially in terms of raising interest rates in the country. If the administration of Trump did not come quickly with a major fiscal stimulus package, the euphoria will fade and this will be the beginning of fluctuation for the US economy.

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