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Friday, 21 July 2017

Will the ECB keep zero interest rates for at least another year?

Europe struggles successfully for the leadership of growth and will gradually shift the US as the engine of the world economy in the second half of the year.
The difference will not be significant, but it shows the advantage of zero interest rates and the cheap euro. The slowdown in US growth does not just come from the process of normalizing of interest rates.
Their change is still insignificant, but the economy is entering the late stage of growth, which will be characterized by a slowdown in investment activity and industry. Consumption remains the most serious factor behind GDP growth, backed by low unemployment and low inflation.
Negative trends in industry and construction do not stop the Federal Reserve in raising interest rates because the slowdown in these sectors is not strong enough. Does this mean that raising interest rates is intended to stop the stock market turning into a bubble? More likely, because the deflationary processes have not passed and the economy does not overheat. In this case, the question arises when the US stock market will become aware of the risks of expensive stocks and of rising interest rates.
According to some analysts, the risks to growth in Europe are much less than the barriers to the US economy. Inflation worries remain in the background, with the European Central Bank holding zero interest rates for at least another year. Political risks are weakening, but tensions between Brussels and London will have economic consequences for both countries, which will gradually increase in 2018.

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