USD relies on aggressive rhetoric of the US Federal Reserve

The new week began for the dollar successfully. Recovering from failed to meet expectations on the employment report in the US, the currency once again is in demand amid lingering hopes for a Fed rate increase in December. Against this background, EUR/USD slippedagain under the 1.12 mark, checking out the area of ​​1.1150.
In September, there were created 156 thousand jobs against the forecast of 172 thousand. However, the release upset the market participants not too much, and they are still hoping that the regulator will start tightening policy until the end of the year. If we analyze the NFP figures for the previous three months, the average growth in the value is around 192 thousand jobs. More than decent result, especially given the continuing growth in wages. In addition, it is worth noting an increase in business activity in manufacturing and services in the country, as well as signs of increasing inflationary pressures.
Theoretically, all this creates conditions for raising the cost of lending. The probability of such a scenario in December, at the moment is about 70%. However, before the December meeting, there are still a lot of tests, which may affect this forecast. This week on focus will be the Fed's minutes on Wednesday. Also, the market will give considerable importance to data on consumer confidence and retail sales in the United States.
So, in spite of the growing confidence in raising rates and the growing optimism of the players, any significant negative signal may trigger a revision of expectations for 2017. For example, if part of the rhetoric of the Fed minutes will be not sufficiently aggressive or even wear a "pigeon" character, USD will be under pressure, and the probability of a December policy tightening will return to 50%.