The metals and the brent become cheaper

The appreciation of the US dollar after the Fed hinted that it would raise more interest rates this year, had an adverse effect on the prices of precious metals and oil.
Silver fell to 15.40 dollars per ounce, while platinum fell to 815 dollars per ounce. Gold is traded early this morning at $1,217 an ounce.
Oil has also been affected by the appreciation of green money and has continued its decline since the last two days. On Wednesday the raw material lost 2.5% of its value.
Earlier this morning, the Brent was traded at $71.90 a barrel and US crude at $68.4.
Oil prices are influenced by the effects of continuing tensions in world trade, but market participants are worried about any slowdown in economic growth around the world.

Trump does not like the Fed's policy

When Donald Trump does not like something, he does not bother to share it. Even if this can have consequences on financial markets. Last week, the US president criticized the Fed's policy.
According to the president, every time when Us economy goes up, FED wants to raise rates. And Trump's really not happy about this.
And Trump's comments have led to a certain decline in the dollar against other major currencies on Thursday.
The yuan has been distinguished from the depreciation of the dollar. The Chinese currency has fallen to over one year's bottom.
Investors continue to worry about the decline of the yuan against the US dollar. The Chinese currency reached 6.8106 yuan per dollar, with the psychological limit of 6.8 being exceeded for the first time in more than a year.
China Central Bank announced a rate of 6.7671 yuan before opening the market on Friday, which was the lowest level in a year.
According to analysts, Trump's remarks can trigger investors who think buying dollars to postpone their deals.
Trump's comment on Thursday is not the first in which the president expresses dissatisfaction with the strong dollar. Earlier, in interview with Wall Street Journal Trump had said even more openly that the dollar was "too strong".

The minutes of the FOMC meeting knocked down the pair USD/JPY, the yield in the US falls

The consequences of yesterday's publication of the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Committee for open market operations differed slightly from the official statement of the FOMC at a meeting in early May. Then the Fed spoke of "symmetry" to describe the goal of inflation. This was probably regarded as an unwillingness to intimidate the market, because it could calculate that the Fed will react too energetically to further inflation growth, because the inflation target of 2.0% is already looming on the horizon.
This time (in any case, judging by the reaction of profitability in the US and the increase in expectations about the Fed's rate hikes), the tone of the protocol was more "dovish", since the Fed apparently agrees to "suffer" a high inflation rate of 2% "long" time, before raising rates further.
The conclusion is that the US central bank seems to be strongly inclined to not cut the recovery period and make sure that inflation remains within the target range.
The very sharp reaction of the US yield in the form of its decline was just as muffled, but this does not apply to the pair USD/JPY, which experienced a new and strong sell-off wave at night, which caused the pair to fall to new local lows and to a level below 110.00. Judging by the dynamics, the level of 110.00 for the pair USD/JPY is too much, and the currency pair could fully rise to high levels if the yield in the USA was also high now.

Dollar should not yet waiting for pleasant surprises from the Fed

After an impressive rally, the dollar shows a local correction against the major currencies. The euphoria of the bulls over the yield growth of the bonds faded - the yield indicator of 10-year securities has moved away from the highs of four years ago, although it is held near the 3% mark, keeping the American currency from a more significant drawdown.
In the wake of the rally in profitability, the expectations of four Fed rate increases this year instead of three were returned to the scene. Next week, the Fed will hold a meeting, but changes in monetary policy are not expected this time. The danger for the dollar in the context of this event is that recently the market's belief in more active policy tightening has significantly strengthened. Accordingly, players will expect more aggressive rhetoric from the regulator.
However, the Central Bank can still take a wait-and-see attitude and refrain from premature "hawkish" signals, so as not to run ahead. Moreover, the situation in foreign policy is not at all smooth, and, given Trump's unpredictability, new conflicts can await ahead.
However, at this stage, the chances for a peaceful resolution of trade contradictions with China are growing. China today urged Washington not to aggravate their trade relations. Next week, US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin and several other White House officials will travel to China to negotiate trade. If there are encouraging statements from this front, this will support both interest in risk and the dollar.

W. Dudley: Gradual rising interest rates by the Fed

Fed chief William Dudley said the federal reserve will likely continue to stick to its plan for a gradual rise in interest rates unless inflation rises to an unexpected margin.
The official does not think we know how much interest increases we will see this year, Dudley said on Monday in an interview with CNBC. While inflation is relatively low, the Fed will raise interest rates smoothly. If the inflation rate rises above 2%, then the smooth rise in interest rates can be changed, according to Dudley.
During the Fed meeting in March, the Fed officials voted for three or four interest rises this year, including the meeting of the reserve that went on and the interest rate was raised.
According to Dudley, three or four interest rises seem like a reasonable decision for this year.
Dudley is expected to retire as head of the Fed in New York after more than nine years on that post. He will be succeeded by John Williams, currently head of the Fed San Francisco.

Powell: Balance between the risks of overheating and the need to maintain the growth

In one of his first speeches as the Fed leader, Jerome Paul talks about the need to balance between the risks of overheating the US economy and sustaining growth.
This confirmed that Powell would continue to pursue the Fed's policy of smooth interest rates hike, which was also led by Janet Yelan.
The rise in interest rates is expected to become a reality despite the addition of incentives resulting from tax cuts and government spending.
The Fed is expected to raise interest rates three times this year, as Powell made no further comments to drive investors and analysts the view that we can see more increases in interest rates.
The Fed will continue to look for a balance between avoiding overheating and bringing inflation to 2 per cent on an annual basis, Powell said in his first report to Congress as the head of the largest central bank in the world.
Powell commented on the good performance of the world and US economies in particular, as well as the fact that the level of inflation is still below 2%.
According to Powell, a gradual rise in interest rates in the future would be good for both Fed goals - to reduce the risk of overheating and to return inflation to target levels.
The Fed is expected to resort to the first interest rate rise under Powell over the next month.

Inflation expectations in the US have fallen

Inflation expectations in the US declined over the past month, according to a report by the New York Fed, published yesterday. Financial markets traditionally look at these reports as evidence of what inflation will be.
The survey of consumer expectations indicates a further gradual rise in interest rates. However, inflation is expected to be 2.71% next year compared to 2.82 the previous month.
The three-year value of expectations was 2.79% in January, which was also down from 2.89% previously. Both values ​​last month were the highest in a long time.
Data largely contradicts the government's January wage increase report, which raised inflationary expectations of the market as well as expectations for interest rate hikes from the Fed.
The Fed raised interest rates three times in the past year, despite the fall in inflation. At the same time, the reserve is expected to do so three more times this year.
In addition, the Fed is expected to begin gradually reducing its record balance, which will also exert an upward pressure on interest rates.

Fed kept the interest rate unchanged

Fully expected, at its last meeting, as head of the Fed, Yellen and the reserve kept interest rates in the US unchanged, paving the way for their further rise by her deputy. Most likely the next interest rate rise will be made by Jerome Powell in March.
The decision did not have a significant impact on the dollar trading levels, which, after its brief rise at the start of the week, again went down against the rest of the major currencies.
Later this week, Janet Yellen's mandate ends. She will be replaced by President Trump's nominee - Jerome Powell. The latter, also supports the policy of the reserve for a smooth increase in interest rates. Federal interest rates have been raised six times since the end of 2015.
In 2014, Janet Yellen became the first woman to become the head of the Fed. According to a number of magazines, she has even become the most influential woman in the world.

Jerome Powell expects interest rates to rise further

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and President Donald Trump's nominee for Fed's head of office expects interest rates to continue rising from their current levels.
According to him, the FED's goal is to maintain a strong labor market and to move inflation to target levels. In this regard, FED expects the interest rates to rise further from their current values ​​and the size of the balance to gradually decrease.
Powell also said that the Fed's objectives would continue to maintain strong financial system, with financial and regulatory reforms being gradually made.
The key question facing Paul is most likely - how the Fed will continue to sustain and stimulate the third longest expansion in US history and how far the planned regulatory relief for the financial system will be stretched.
While Janet Yelan inherited a relatively weak state economy, still aware of the effects of the debt crisis, Powell will inherit a rather strong economy.
Powell also said that if he was appointed to the post, he would continue to support the growth and progress of the economy to full recovery.

The dollar is the cheapest against the euro since September 25th

The US dollar declined to its lowest level since September 25 against the euro, registering a third consecutive weekly loss.
Concerns that the Fed may not respond to the increased market expectations in terms of the numbers of increases in interest rates have largely determined the depreciation of the US currency.
The US continues to face the dangers of low inflation, even though it operates in full employment.
The dollar index fell 0.39%, reaching the lowest value in two months, at 92.781 points. The index was down 0.9% in the past week.
The euro appreciated by 0.7% at the end of last week, reaching a level of 1.1927 dollars, compared to 1.1850 Thursday. This was the first breach of 1.19 by the end of September. The euro appreciated 1.1% last week.

Gold continues to lose positions

Gold fell yesterday after investors were eagerly awaiting the announcement of the new Fed leader who would feed the dollar. At the same time, US indices are trading very close to their record highs.
President Trump told the media on Monday that he was "very, very close" to his choice of a new Fed leader.
The spot price of gold fell by 0.5% to $1 276 per ounce after falling to $ 1,271.86 an ounce a day earlier.
Gold futures with delivery in December fell by 0.2 percent to $1 278.9 per ounce.
The spot price of gold lost 6 percent of its one-year high on September 8, at a level of $1,357.54 per ounce. Expectations are that the Fed will raise rates in December for the third time this year.
Gold also does not receive support in the direction of geopolitical uncertainty. Recently, there is nothing new about North Korea, or the situation seems quite relaxed.

Dow broke 23,000 points for the first time in history

The Dow Jones blue chip index has overcome the 23,000-point psychological limit for the first time in its history, driven by over 5% growth in UnitedHealth's stock. The shares of the insurance company reached a historic record after having recorded better-than-expected results for the past quarter.
On the index, however, weighted the weak performance of the industrial companies.
We do not see a market that is fascinated by the results, according to other analysts who are talking about a potential correction for the indices after their record highs.
US Treasury bonds rose after higher-than-expected growth in import prices, which raised inflationary expectations and led to a rise in the US dollar.
Additional support for the dollar has made it clear that Donald Trump would most likely prefer John Taylor as the next Fed leader after Janet Yelan's term of office.
The fall of 1.2% in General Electric's shares led to a decline in the industrial index, while the fall in Microsoft's and Intel's shares put a heavy burden on its technology components.
Seven of the 11 major sectors in the broad US index recorded declines driven by the industrial one.
Netflix shares lost 1.2% of their value after they recorded a new historic record the previous day.

P. Harker: Another rate hike this year and three in the next

Fed Philadelphia head Patrick Harker said last week he expects another increase in interest from the reserve and three next year.
This program, however, will largely depend on the performance of inflation, Harker said.
He still signed up for three interest rates next year, but again we need to see how market dynamics is developing, Harker said in an interview with CNBC.
Apparently the comments of the official representatives of the reserve are not convincing enough, as yet a little over half of the market participants expect a third increase in interest rates this year.
We can not fail to note the still low performance of inflation in the world's leading economy. It is at levels below the target of 2%, puzzling seriously the members of the Monetary Policy Committee.
And although Fed officials, in the face of Janet Yelan and Stanley Fischer, have said in the past two weeks that they expect inflation to accelerate over the coming months as a result of low unemployment, inflation has fallen since the beginning year.

Fischer: Soon we will see inflation

The current path of low inflation in the US will not last long, according to Fed Vice President Stanley Fischer.
He still believes we will see higher inflation, Fischer said in an interview with Bloomberg TV.
The fall in unemployment will lead to an increase in wages at one point, and that is to inflation behind, Fischer said.
Fisher's comments are in line with statements by Janet Yelan, who recently said that she expects inflation to gradually rise over time.
Some Fed officials want to first see signs of returning inflation to target 2% before continuing the policy of raising interest rates.
Fischer said he welcomed the gradual rise in Fed interest rates since 2015.
Currently, the level of short-term US interest rates is between 1 and 1.25%. Inflation measured through personal consumption is at a level of 1.3% on an annual basis.

Yellen: The gradual rise in interest rates will continue (2)

Yellen's comments are becoming reality in an environment of fierce disputes among economists and members of the monetary policy committee about how the rise in interest rates will affect on low inflation.
The level of consumer price growth is still far below the target of 2%, which is considered healthy for the economy.
According to Yellen, there is now a 30% probability that inflation will fluctuate between one and three percent, which could radically change the policy pursued by the reserve.
In fact, Yellen's message was very controversial, but was perceived by market participants as a complete lack of certainty as to what Fed's interest rate inflation and policy would be.

Yellen: The gradual rise in interest rates will continue (1)

Janet Yellen did not surprise the market by saying what everyone was expecting from her. Particulary, the gradual rise in interest rates will continue despite weak inflation.
Yellen's comments continue to indicate problems in predicting inflation in the future, which may be an obstacle to normalizing interest rate policy from the Federal reserve.
It is possible that the Fed has applied incorrect inflation models and failed to take into account key labor market facts, said Yellen.
And while there is still no clear evidence of accelerating inflation to strengthen the position of a gradual rise in interest rates, the central bank must be open to similar action, the most influential business lady said.
The current low inflation most likely reflects factors that will drop over time, Yellen said in a 37-page report.
Without further gradual increases in federal interest, according to her, over time, there is a risk that the labor market will gradually overheat, creating inflationary problems in the future that will be difficult to overcome without bringing a recession.

Shares may collapse unless Yellen produces a miracle

The Fed has confirmed its position that it will begin to reduce its record $4 trillion balance sheet this year. This, however, did not bother particularly the stock markets, as the Dow blue chip index this week set a new record.
Are investors thinking that the Fed can withdraw liquidity from the market without affecting the companies? Obviously yes...
Otherwise, they would have to worry, not to buy shares "as the last one." Investor memory has proven not once and twice that it is short-lived and quickly forgets.
The traders apparently forgot what the asset redemption program is, which is the main reason for the Fed's record balance.
The question arises if the incentives triggered strong and parabolic growth for the indices, why not take the opposite - a reduction in the Fed's balance sheet could lead to a strong correction for US indices?

Fed members disunited

The report of the previous Fed meeting on monetary policy shows a serious disunity amongst the members of the Monetary Policy Committee about the rise in interest rates.
Details of the summit, on which FED voted to raise interest rates indicated that several members of the committee asked the balance of reserve bonds to start declining by the end of August. Others, however, have said that this is more appropriate to be done later this year.
And while most of the FOMC members believe that the observed slowdown in price increase is a temporary phenomenon and a consequence of seasonal and casual factors, some have expressed concern if this is not the beginning of a new trend.
Fed members also seem to be worried why the recent rise in interest rates has not led to a contraction in money supply, and why financial markets have continued to grow.

Ron Paul: 25% correction of the markets and 50% growth for gold is not excluded

In an interview with CNBC, Ron Paul, a former GOP president, said the US economy is probably not as strong as everyone expects and the situation could become "ugly" by October.
According to him, if the market drops by 25% and gold is rising by 50%, it would not be a shock.
Such a scenario would take the broad US S&P 500 index to a level of $1,819 and gold to $1,867 per ounce relative to current levels.
Paul is known for his bearish expectations and open-ended critic of the Trump administration. He also often criticizes the Fed for maintaining interest rates at too low levels for too long.
This, of course, is not the first time that Paul predicts an adjustment. He did the same on June 28 2016, or just a year ago. Since then, the S&P 500 index has risen by 21% and Dow has added 24%. Technological Nasdaq is traded with an increase of 34%.
Paul, however, continues to hold on to his thesis.

Gold is cheaper in a background of a rising dollar and record indices

New records for US indices did not particularly affect gold. Investors dropped the metal, demanding higher returns and a "high security" environment.
There is another fact about the calm of the market. The continuing decline in the volatility index of the Chicago stock exchange.
Otherwise, gold futures with delivery in August lost $9.8 in value, or 0.8% to $1,246.70. It was the seventh consecutive closure of a negative territory for gold, from the last nine sessions.
The Fed's policy of normalizing interest rates also had a negative impact on gold.
In addition, US indices reached new record highs yesterday and the US dollar appreciated.