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Wednesday, 30 November 2016

Deutsche Bank: It's time to sell the most overvalued currency in the world

Currency strategists at Deutsche Bank, who already have in their portfolio short positions in Australian dollar against the Canadian, think it's time to consider selling AUD against the US Dollar.
Changes in the technical picture confirms the inability of the bulls to take advantage of this initiative, while improving the economic prospects of the United States after the victory of Trump and negative signals from data from Australia showed that the fundamental picture favors lowering. At Deutsche Bank paying attention to the weakening of wage growth in Australia and the general deterioration of the situation on the labor market in the country, which in the opinion of the analysts of the bank will cause the Reserve Bank of Australia to lower interest rates again in the first half of 2017.
In addition, DB doubt the recent rally in commodity assets as the bank's strategists do not believe that the movement reflects the real situation in the economy and therefore do not believe in its stability.
DB's analysts do not expect a noticeable improvement of the situation with the trade balance in Australia and also remind about the risks of China, which continue to maintain a policy of gradual devaluation of the yuan. From the bank also advise not to forget that with the arrival of Donald Trump at the White House it could be expecteda  deterioration in the trade disputes between the US and China.
At the bank believe that in given circumstances from the Australian currency can be expected a resumption of downward momentum, as the Australian dollar could be called the most overvalued currency in the world.

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