Positive data - bullish factor for AUD/USD

February retail sales and trade balance surpassed expectations. Will the growth of AUD/USD continue?
The Reserve Bank of Australia left an interest rate of 1.5% at the April 3 meeting. Australia's recent economic data was higher than expected: retail sales growth accelerated in February to 0.6% after rising 0.5% in January. The trade balance fell in February, but it was less than expected. The activity index in the construction sector (AIG) was 57.2 points in March, compared to 56.0 in February. Positive data is a bullish factor for AUD/USD. At the same time, consumer confidence in Australia declined to 102, 4, from 103.0 a month earlier. It is also expected that in the report, which will be published on April 19, the unemployment rate in March will rise to 5.6% from 5.5% in the previous month. The above factors could lead to a depreciation of the Australian dollar.

Will the Australian Dollar fall below $0.70?

Two of Australia's largest asset managers are arguing about whether the Australian currency will break the psychological limit of 70 US cents.
The Australian dollar will fall below this level by the middle of next year if Australian government bond interest rates fall below the US bond yields, according to analysts from QIC Ltd., managig assets worth $63 billion.
On the other hand, according to analysts from AMP Capital Investors Ltd., managing assets worth $137 billion, the Australian dollar will hold above the 70-cent psychological limit due to the strong growth of the Chinese economy, Australia's main trading partner.
The Australian dollar declined by about 6 per cent on its highest value in September after the two-year Australian bond premium fell for the past month against the US for the first time since 2000.
In addition, mixed economic data in the country is expected to cause the Australian central bank to refrain from raising interest rates, which are currently at a record low of 1.5%.
For the last time, the Australian dollar traded below 70 cents to the US in February of 2016.

BNP Paribas: It's time to sell the Australian dollar

This month the Australian dollar again raise its price, however, as before, it failed to break through key resistance levels, and while its attempts to decrease remain limited, the dynamics of the pair shows a weakening of upward momentum, analysts said.
Analysts at BNP Paribas note that market participants in recent years have gained a strong track record of long positions and the positions of speculators close to important technical levels suggest the attractiveness of short positions in AUD/USD.
At the bank believe that the new period of decrease will also contribute to fundamental factors and announced the opening of short positions in AUD at 0.7695 with target 0.7400 and a stop at 0.7815.

Danske Bank: Bank of Australia may prevent further growth of AUD/USD

AUD/USD won back almost all the losses suffered after the victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential election. The demand in mid-December was due to the uncertainty of the economic plans of the new US administration, the strong macroeconomic data from Australia, upbeat comments from Bank of Australia, as well as higher commodity prices and good appetite for risk, analysts say.

However, they believe that the Australian central bank wants to limit the potential growth of the couple through verbal intervention in case of its further strengthening. In addition, in the coming months there may be an increase in interest rates in the US. Analysts' forecasts of the bank for AUD/USD for 1, 3, 6 and 12 months, are respectively, $ 0.75, $ 0.73, $ 0.74 and $ 0.75.

National Australia Bank: We should not expect extraordinary results from the Australian Dollar

In recent days, the Australian dollar moved up strongly, and today finally bulls managed to break the field of defense in the seventy-fifth digit. The mood remains positive and now after a pause investors are interested in buying at dips.
Analysts at National Australia Bank remind that the long-term trend remains downward. However, in recent weeks it is seen a number of positive changes, suggesting the possibility of more severe corrective phase. Thus for the stabilization of the price a good sign was the passage above 0.7150/00, and the formation of three ascending candles on the weekly chart is a bullish signal.

The Australian dollar fell because of the GDP data

The Australian dollar fell on Wednesday during the Asian trading session, as Australian GDP shrank in the third quarter.
AUD/USD was trading at 0.7431, down by 0.40%, and the USD/JPY rose by 0.12% to 114.16.
The US Dollar Index, showing the strength of the dollar against the six major currencies, was up by 0.01% to 101.52.
In Australia the day is rich in fresh indicators. Thus, the index of activity in the construction sector from AIG rose from 45.9 in November to 46.6, and in the third quarter GDP fell qoq by 0.5% and grew year on year basis, while it was expected to grow by 0.3% and 2.5% respectively.
Reduction of GDP, the highest since 2008, is one of the biggest deviations from the forecasts of the Reserve Bank of Australia's history. RBA, according to the calculations of economists expect GDP growth somewhere at 0.5%. Although officials expect that GDP will retrace in the fourth quarter, the lowest rate will attract the attention of traders to the report on the state of the labor market and definitely will soften the current neutral position of the central bank.

Deutsche Bank: It's time to sell the most overvalued currency in the world

Currency strategists at Deutsche Bank, who already have in their portfolio short positions in Australian dollar against the Canadian, think it's time to consider selling AUD against the US Dollar.
Changes in the technical picture confirms the inability of the bulls to take advantage of this initiative, while improving the economic prospects of the United States after the victory of Trump and negative signals from data from Australia showed that the fundamental picture favors lowering. At Deutsche Bank paying attention to the weakening of wage growth in Australia and the general deterioration of the situation on the labor market in the country, which in the opinion of the analysts of the bank will cause the Reserve Bank of Australia to lower interest rates again in the first half of 2017.
In addition, DB doubt the recent rally in commodity assets as the bank's strategists do not believe that the movement reflects the real situation in the economy and therefore do not believe in its stability.
DB's analysts do not expect a noticeable improvement of the situation with the trade balance in Australia and also remind about the risks of China, which continue to maintain a policy of gradual devaluation of the yuan. From the bank also advise not to forget that with the arrival of Donald Trump at the White House it could be expecteda  deterioration in the trade disputes between the US and China.
At the bank believe that in given circumstances from the Australian currency can be expected a resumption of downward momentum, as the Australian dollar could be called the most overvalued currency in the world.

The markets have calmed down and the dollar stopped growing

The dollar has stopped the rise and traded steadily against other currencies in quiet trading on Friday as investors have recovered from the shocking results of the voting in the United States, and became even optimistic considering the choice of Americans to the country's economy.
The EUR/USD fell by 0.30% to 1.0852. On Wednesday, the pair jumped to 1.1298, the highest level since September 8, before returning to 1.0902.
The dollar was supported as investors revised their initial expectations for Trump presidency. Market participants expect an increase in costs and increase in inflation during the administration of Trump.
The dollar showed an increase after on Thursday the US Department of Labor said the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week ended November 5 fell by 11000 to 254000. Analysts had expected a decline in the number of initial applications by 5000 to 260,000 last week.
The Mexican peso continues to fall, MXN/USD pair fell by 1.44% to a fresh record low at 0.0479.
At a press conference on Wednesday the governor of the Mexican central bank said that the institution is watching the market volatility, but refrain from any national currency stabilization measures.
GBP/USD pair rose by 0.85% to 1.2595, the highest level since 6 October.
The pound was supported, as some British politicians have declared that they intend to vote against the negotiations on Brexit, after a court stated that the UK government must obtain parliamentary approval to initiate the process of exit from the EU.
Pair USD/JPY fell by 0.49% to 106.66, holding near a three-month high on Thursday at 106.94.
Australian and New Zealand dollars fell, AUD/USD pair fell by 0.33% to 0.7541 and the pair NZD/USD fell by 0.29% to 0.7106.
Pair USD/CAD rose by 0.27% to 1.3536, holding near a seven-month high at 1.3525.
USD index, which shows the relationship of the US dollar to a basket of major currencies, was steady at 98.84, remaining at the 2.5-week high on Thursday at 99.08.

On the foreign exchange market is approaching summer lull

Last week, the JPY crosses have continued to grow, while at the periphery of the market place quite remarkable events are happening, but in general, it seems that the market returned to summer boredom, despite the fact that volatility is still much higher than in 2014.
EUR/USD was in one of the tightest ranges in its history, despite the banking crisis in the European Union and the existential problems that have arisen around Brexit. AUD/USD and USD/CAD also show no signs of life, though AUD/USD is trying to break through the highest level in more than two months.
The market is now busy looking for an equilibrium point for the British currency, which has experienced a shock due to Brexit and traders in pairs with the yen are trying to understand, when the Japanese authorities are going to take the next inevitable step. Given the common symptoms that indicate that the currency returned to average values, it can be assumed that the GBP/USD will develop from the zone 1,3400-1,3500 and JPY crosses will form a top, before continuing the downtrend.