US producers increase their oil production

The US oil producers is clearly the most satisfied group of high oil prices. The cost of raw materials declined on Friday after it became clear that OPEC and Russia could increase their production. And the latter may be the result of US production growth in an environment of rising production.
US crude oil lost about 1 percent of its value to $66.39 a barrel late Friday, while the Brent fell 0.6 percent to $77.07 and was already more than $3 below its highest since late May.
US oil production is growing at a good pace and weekly data show no signs of slowing down, according to Seaport Global analysts, adding that growth is mainly driven by Texas and New Mexico.
US oil production rose 215,000 barrels per day to 10.47 million barrels per day in March, according to the US energy ministry. Production in Texas rose 4% to 4.2 million barrels per day, while that in New Mexico - by 6.5% on a monthly basis.
Increasing production by US companies in the US is a reality when the market increasingly talks about Russia and OPEC being able to override accepted production constraints. Namely the latter were the basis of the strong rise in oil prices to a maximum of four and a half years.

Oil between $50 and $75 suits everyone

Over the past four days, US crude oil fell nearly 10 percent of the cyclical peak $73 a barrel, reaching yesterday low at $65. This poses the question - has the downward correction of the raw material been exhausted and can it start rising again?
The sharp decline in oil became a reality as a result of the data that Saudi Arabia and Russia are considering increasing production. Both parties signaled some increase in their production.
It is the trade between Russia and OPEC in the past year to curb production, triggering a strong rise in raw material prices.
Experts, however, comment that the potential resistance of some OPEC members against Saudi Arabia and Russia's decision to boost production could lead to a certain return in the price of oil.
After the peak of 115 dollars in 2011, oil was traded in a range between 115 and 75 dollars for 30 months. Such developments would mean oil price rate in the range of between $70 and $50 over the next few years. And that would perfectly suit Russia and Saudi Arabia, according to market observers.
Any oil levels above this range are already leading to some problems for consumers related to inflation, as well as an upsurge in US oil production, which is becoming profitable.
So, it seems very likely that the price of oil will be kept in a relatively narrow range over the coming years.
There are, of course, some analysts who believe that the price of oil will continue to rise and may go beyond that limit. Some of them are experts from Goldman Sachs, according to which there is an essential background for growth in the price of oil.

Oil loses more than $4 on Friday, continues to go down

The price of oil continued with its exceptionally strong depreciation on Friday and the first day of the new week. Brent futures with delivery next month lost $1.1, or 1.4% on Friday's closing level.
US crude oil fell by 1.57 dollars, or 2.3% on Friday's closing level.
Brent and US oil fell respectively by 6.4 and 9 percent of its peak in early May. In China, oil fell 4.5 percent to 459 yuan a barrel (71.83 dollars a barrel).
The rise in oil prices in recent weeks has sparked serious debates among market participants and OPEC members about the impact of oil prices on the world economy, according Chittag Ay, chief economist at Morgan Stanley.
On Friday, Saudi Arabia and Russia, which are considered to be drivers of the oil market, said some oil production growth of 1 million barrels per day was under discussion.
Production cuts were the factor that led to substantial oil prices on international markets.
With the price rise, however, the US producer of US oil is also growing, benefiting from the high oil price.
Oil prices have collapsed after reports that Saudi Arabia and Russia have agreed to increase their production in the second half of the year, ANZ said.
US energy companies have added 15 new field deposits for the week to May 25.

Oil with a strong downturn before Trump-Iran

Oil prices plunged 4% yesterday after media reported that Trump would most likely withdraw from the Iranian deal with the nuclear program.
The question now is how quickly Trump sanctions will be imposed on Iran and whether this will meet market expectations.
According to a report by The New York Times, President Trump has told French President Emanuel Macron that he will restore sanctions to Iran and will impose additional economic sanctions.
Macron has denied this information, quoted by Reuters.
Oil prices will continue to be extremely volatile and to be influenced by news related to Washington-Iran relations.
The Brent lost 2.3 percent of its value to $74.42 a barrel, while US crude futures fell 2.8 percent to $68.73 a barrel.

US vs. Iran: the game begins

The prices for oil on Thursday after correction in the last few days again moved to growth: Brent crude again continues to try to gain a foothold at $75 per barrel, North American oil WTI is in an attempt to overcome the mark of $68.5 per barrel.
The situation in the Middle East continues to worsen: the Iranian issue added to the Syrian issue, full of uncertainty: the peak moment will be May 12, as the question of the possibility of imposing new sanctions against Iran on the part of the US is being resolved because of the reluctance of the oil Middle East giant to meet halfway in the issue of revision of the nuclear deal.
If sanctions are imposed, one of the largest oil producers will again be withdrawn from the game, which can raise the cost of raw materials not only up to $80, but much higher.

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Oil lost about 1% of its value, and gold and silver almost did not react, contrary to the expectations of many investors, that they would appreciate.
The yen, traditionally considered as a rescue island, in moments of crisis or geopolitical tension, is not traded in any significant change in its levels.
If we had to be objective, the biggest increase over the weekend were crypto-currencies. And this is increasingly asking the question - will the crypto-currencies turn into the "new gold"?
Otherwise, gold is traded at levels of $1 346 per ounce, and its rise continues to decline from a level of $1,360. The silver is at 16.65 dollars per ounce, and the brent is exchanged at 72.25 dollars. Early in the morning, the valuable raw material had fallen below the psychological limit of $72 a barrel.

Trump conducts moods on the oil market

At the end of Thursday's trading, Brent oil found the strength to return to positive territory and closed at around 68.50. The extinction of escape from risks brought temporary relief to the raw materials segment, which simultaneously had to put up with the strengthening of the dollar. But already at the start of today's trading the situation has changed - quotes of black gold opened with gap down and again traded below level 68.
A new wave of risk aversion, which covered the oil market, was raised by Trump, who spoke about considering the introduction of tariffs on Chinese goods for another $100 billion. After a small lull, this was another blow to the markets, which renewed concern over the incitement of a trade war. Considering that China is serious and has repeatedly expressed its readiness for this confrontation, after some time, Beijing can voice the next response measures, which creates an additional negative for risky assets.

GS: Brutal inflation and a Brent price of $82 in a few months

According to the US investment bank, investors must target the shares of dividend companies... because unpredictable inflation is forthcoming.
And it is very possible that the new Fed leader will resort to four interest rises this year and much more in the next year.
The bank does not recommend investors to close their long positions, but warn them to be extremely careful.
Here are some suggestions of the bank's letter to its clients:
There is inflationary pressure on wage growth for Americans, with average hourly wages rising by 3% on an annual basis.
The gradual rise in expectations for interest rates hikes by the Fed, which can still be defined as not very aggressive, given the dangers of rising inflation.
The bank expects a price increase for Brent to $82.50 a barrel, by the middle of the year.

Oil prices are stabilizing after the sharp drop

Oil prices stabilized on Tuesday morning after a strong decline in the previous trading session, prompted by expectations of further growth in the extraction of raw materials in the US. Futures for the North Sea Brent blend dropped 0.05 percent to $64.92 per barrel.
Futures contracts for US light oil WTI by this time traded at $61.33 per barrel, which is 0.05 percent lower than the previous closing.
On Monday, both benchmarks fell by about one percent.
Oil prices fell due to fears that the increase in production in the US could lead to an increase in the stock of raw materials in the country, analysts of the ANZ bank believe.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its March review raised the forecast for oil production in the US in 2018. The Office expects that the volume of production of raw material in the US on average will grow by more than 120,000 barrels per day to 11.17 million barrels per day by the fourth quarter of this year. The previous forecast assumed growth to 11.04 million barrels per day.
Moreover, the production of shale oil resources in the US in April will increase by 131,000 barrels per day by March to 6.95 million barrels per day - a fresh maximum, according to the EIA.
The focus of investors' attention is data on weekly stocks of oil and petroleum products in the US from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and official EIA statistics.

Oil with a fall

Oil prices dropped on Wednesday after data suggest US stock growth, and financial markets have fallen as a result of fears of a trade war and the resignation of Trump's economic adviser.
US crude oil futures lost 1.28 dollars of value to a level of $ 61.10 a barrel, or a decline of nearly 2% a day.
Brent futures declined by 1.3 dollars to 64.40 dollars a barrel.
US oil inventories rose 2.4 million barrels last week, which was slightly below the analysts' average expectations of 2.7 million barrels.
Investors, however, sold the raw material as a result of concerns about the state of the world economy, in an environment of increased danger of a world trade war, which is unclear how it will affect the growth of the world economy.
Additional political tensions were also brought after the resignation of President Donald Trump's Chief Economic Adviser.

Oil prices rise fourth consecutive session

Oil is growing in price during the fourth consecutive session against the backdrop of growing demand for risky assets.
The price of April futures for Brent crude on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures rose by $0.38 (0.59%) - to $65.22 per barrel.
The cost of the WTI futures contract for March in the electronic trading of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) increased by $0.41 (0.66%) to $62.09 per barrel.
According to experts, oil prices could again shift to a decrease if another weekly report from the US Department of Energy indicates an increase in oil production in the country. At the same time, the volume of oil produced in the States is already at a record high in history.
At the end of last week, the oil service company Baker Hughes reported an increase in the number of operating oil drilling rigs in the US for the fourth week in a row - to 798.
The indicator mainly reflects the recovery of production at shale deposits. It is expected that by the next month, production at the Permian field will grow to a record 2.99 million barrels per day. With this indicator, the region could take the fourth place among all the OPEC countries.

Oil with the highest value since June 2015

Oil has reached its highest level since mid-2015 yesterday, but has since retreated from its value after a recovery in Libya's lead pipeline supplies and data for a rise in US production to the highest value for four decades.
This was the first time since January of 2014, when both major types of oil - Brent and Crude, opened the year at levels above $60 a barrel. Aid for rising oil prices has sparked political tensions in Iran and the agreement between OPEC and Russia to restrict the production of raw materials.
US crude oil ended yesterday with a fall of 5 cents to 60.37 dollars a barrel or its highest level since June 2015.
The Brent lost 30 cents of its value, or close lower by 0.5 percent to a level of $67.29 a barrel. This was the highest level since May 2015.

The Brent with the highest price since 2015

Brent has risen to its highest levels since 2015 today, after an unplanned closure to repair a North Sea pipeline. This has resulted in serious supply difficulties and has helped to raise the cost of raw material.
The Brent with delivery in the next month traded at $64.73 a barrel early this morning.
Raw material has begun to rise before the meeting of OPEC, which reached agreement to extend production constraints by the end of next year. The decision was also backed by Russia.
However, this time, unlike the previous one, OPEC's decision did not lead to a sharp depreciation of the price of "black gold."
More and more analysts are starting to talk about a price of 70 or even $80 a barrel next year. The good performance of the global economy and the possible depreciation of the dollar may be the factors that will predict similar high prices.
Brent peaked yesterday, at $64.93 a barrel, or its highest price since June 2015.
US crude oil was traded at $57.98 a barrel.

Oil with a slight increase in expectations of US stocks report

Oil prices rose slightly today due to expectations of a decline in oil stocks in the United States and after the OPEC deal last week to extend production constraints.
The Brent with delivery next month added nearly one percent to its value, to a level of $63 a barrel.
US crude oil is traded in the morning at $57.40 a barrel or with no significant change from yesterday's levels.
Last week, OPEC countries agreed to continue their production restrictions at 1.8 million barrels by the end of next year. This, however, was not followed by much reaction to the price of oil.
According to Goldman Sachs analysts, Saudi Arabia and Russia have shown a strong will to continue the production constraints by lowering their forecasts for the price of Brent and US crude oil to 62 and 57.5 dollars respectively.

Short sellers are returning to oil

Once bull bets on brent have reached a historic record and commodity futures have risen to two-year highs, hedge funds are beginning to believe that growth has peaked.
Bets on falling oil prices rose most since June. This, as tensions in the Middle East began to normalize and investors again began to reduce expectations for a unified OPEC position with regard to future production constraints.
Hedge funds have cut their net long positions in Brent by 1% to 537,557 contracts for the week to November 14. At the same time, short stakes have risen by 8.7%.
More and more experts say that oil may not have come out of its range, as OPEC countries are asking for. Or it is entirely possible that the price of oil will return to levels of about 60 dollars per barrel.

WTI futures rose in price during Asian trade

Quotations for oil futures WTI rose during Asian trading on Wednesday.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI futures for December delivery are traded at a price of $57.03 per barrel, up 0.30%. WTI oil found support at $53.99 and resistance at $57.69.
Futures on the USD index, showing the ratio of the US dollar to the basket of the six major currencies, decreased by 0.06% and is trading at around 94.75 dollars.
As for other goods traded on ICE, futures for Brent crude for January delivery increased by 0.16%, reaching $63.59 per barrel, and the difference in price between Brent crude oil contracts and WTI crude oil was 6.56 dollars per barrel.

What can we expect for oil in the second half of the year?

For most of the first half of the year, it seemed that oil had found its balance about $50 a barrel of American sort. OPEC respects the mining constraint, with Saudi Arabia dropping its production below 10 million barrels per day. The change occurred only when stocks in the US began to grow in the second quarter. And the price of oil fell to 42.50 dollars.
Achieving a balance of the oil market remains an open question for the second half of the year. US companies report a reduction in shale oil production costs, resulting in increased drilling and production.
According to some analysts, oil is likely to reach levels of 45-55 dollars. Expectations are for this range to be maintained by the end of 2018, notably until the OPEC and Russia agreements are in force. But the fact that the price of oil comes down in a lower price range does not mean that there is a tendency for a strong depreciation of the raw material.

Oil with the worst performance for the first half of the year since 1998

The weakness of the dollar and weaker production in the US have triggered a rise in oil prices over the week. However, this did not prevented the raw material from registering its worst performance for the first half of 1998.
Brent finished the first six months of the year, at levels of nearly $49 a barrel, and US crude at $46.30 a barrel.
Thus, since the beginning of the year, the Brent has lost 15% of its value, and US crude oil - nearly 18%. This is also their biggest decline for the first six months since 19 years, statistics show.
The start of the sharp decline in oil has happened surprisingly after the decision by the OPEC countries to continue their production cuts by March next year.
The effect of the decision, however, was largely offset by the data that producers such as Nigeria and Libya virtually increased their production in May of this year.
In addition, data for a faster-than-expected growth in US production also had a negative impact on oil prices. Increased production is also present with other non-OPEC producers - including Brazil and Canada.

The three questions about oil, following OPEC's decision

OPEC may extend its production constraints for another nine months, but after the initial party, the questions faced by investors are as follows:
Will the strong relations between Russia and Saudi Arabia be maintained after the agreement? Will the members of the cartel succeed in resisting the temptation of larger production, in the midst of a boom in extraction by US state-owned manufacturers? And perhaps the most important question - what is the long-term policy of OPEC countries?
The last question is very important because we saw how OPEC's policy can be radically turned to 180-degree only within a few years.
The war on US state-owned producers, and Saudi Arabia, seriously reflected on the producers themselves, and they were the first to "flicker", not to resist the low price of oil they themselves attempted to initiate. And the goal was clear - to bring US producers to bankruptcy.
What worries the experts is that there are no clear signals about the exit strategy and what the parties' policy will be after.
These concerns, among market participants, materialized in the price of oil. Brent lost 5 percent, to $51.24 a barrel after the decision, neutralizing a major part of the growth after representatives of Russia and Saudi Arabia publicly announced they would support production cuts last week.
Or have we witnessed the materialization of the market rule "buy on rumors, sell on news".

WTI futures rose on Friday

Quotations for oil futures WTI rose during the European session on Friday.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), WTI futures for May delivery rose to $52.89 per barrel, up by 0.41%.
WTI oil found support at $52.29 and resistance at $53.76.
As for other goods traded on ICE, futures for Brent crude for delivery in June rose by 0.02%, reaching $55.64 per barrel, and the difference in price between Brent crude oil contracts and WTI oil was 2.75 dollars per barrel.
Futures on the USD index, showing the ratio of the US dollar to the basket of the six major currencies, increased by 0.43% and is trading at around $100.49.