The strong dollar sank the metals and oil

The dollar continued with its exceptionally strong appreciation over other major currencies. Especially strong was the growth of the US dollar against the New Zealand dollar. The appreciation of the dollar has adversely affected metal prices. However, their decline was relatively limited. Silver is traded at levels of 15.25 dollars per ounce and gold at $1,208. Platinum lost at least its value, swapping at levels of about $820 per ounce.
Oil also fell on the first day of the new week. The reason for this was the growing tension in world trade, especially in Asia, although US sanctions against Iran support prices to some extent and lead to more limited supplies.
Brent fell 21 cents to 72.60 dollars a barrel, compared to Friday's closing price. The decline in US crude oil, which dropped by five cents to $67.60 a barrel, was far farther.
Keeping the bearish sentiment on the market, hedge funds and other financial managers have cut their oil futures positions in the US in the week ending August 7, according to the CFTC US Trends Trading Commission on Friday. Total long positions in New York and London were 9,117, to a total of 397,885, the lowest level since June 19, according to CFTC data.

A new drop for precious metals and oil

Noble metals and oil dropped today after the US dollar rises again. Gold again returned at a trading rate of $1,210, and we can see a psychological limit test of $1,200 per ounce.
The silver is traded at levels of $15.30 per ounce, or close to the lowest levels for the last one year. Platinum is exchanged at 825 dollars per ounce.
Meanwhile, the price of oil fell somewhat after its strong rise at the start of the week. Data released indicated a reduction in oil and petroleum stocks in the United States, in enforced sanctions against Iran.
US crude oil fell by nearly 30 cents to $69 a barrel, and the Brent to $73.80 a barrel.
We can recall that the Brent came back at trading levels above $74 a barrel after US sanctions against Iran came into force yesterday. It is expected Iran's production to cut by about 1 million barrels, from its current level to nearly 3 million barrels.

The metals and the brent become cheaper

The appreciation of the US dollar after the Fed hinted that it would raise more interest rates this year, had an adverse effect on the prices of precious metals and oil.
Silver fell to 15.40 dollars per ounce, while platinum fell to 815 dollars per ounce. Gold is traded early this morning at $1,217 an ounce.
Oil has also been affected by the appreciation of green money and has continued its decline since the last two days. On Wednesday the raw material lost 2.5% of its value.
Earlier this morning, the Brent was traded at $71.90 a barrel and US crude at $68.4.
Oil prices are influenced by the effects of continuing tensions in world trade, but market participants are worried about any slowdown in economic growth around the world.

Oil with dramatic loss yesterday

The oil price was exceptionally strong yesterday. The Brent lost $3.49 of its value, or 4.6%, to finish the first day of the week at $71.48 a barrel with delivery in September. This was the lowest closing date since April last year.
US crude oil fell by 2.95 dollars, or about 4.2% to 68.06 dollars a barrel. Its lowest closing level since 21 June.
The Trump administration, in addition to conducting active political talks with Russia and Saudi Arabia to boost production, plans to resort to US strategic reserves to stem the fall in oil prices.
The average selling price of oil rose 16% since the beginning of the year, resulting in serious dissatisfaction with Trump's policy.
The sanctions imposed by the US on Iran are largely among the main reasons for the rise in oil prices in international markets.
According to the International Energy Agency, US state producers are expected to raise their daily production by 143,000 barrels in August, compared to a year earlier.

Oil is headed to $80 a barrel?

Oil continued to rise to $75, after data on US crude oil stocks and continuing concerns about supply shortages.
Despite assurances that Saudi Arabia will raise its production, in response to President Trump's request and his administration, there was a scandal. The media severely condemned Trump's tweets, saing they were offensive to Saudi Arabia.
US crude oil rose 1%, with a premium between futures contracts shipped month by month, expanding heavily. This indicates the market participants' expectations for a potential further rise in the price of "black gold."
In addition, the decline of the dollar against other major currencies has also fueled the slight rise in oil prices.
Oil prices are rising despite OPEC countries' assurances that they will adhere to a 1 million barrel per day production agreement.
The rise in the cost of raw materials in such environments has led a number of market observers to believe that OPEC will not be able to cope with the supply of such a quantity of oil due to lack of sufficient spare capacity.
And this may trigger further rising of raw material to the next key $80 per barrel.

Russia is raising its oil production

Oil prices dropped somewhat, as a result of negative forecasts from JPMorgan late last week that non-OPEC countries are expected to raise their production seriously in 2019.
They will be led by the United States, along with Russia, Brazil, Canada and Kazakhstan, the US investment bank said.
In addition, downward pressure on oil prices also revealed that Russia's production in May was over 11 million barrels a day, or above the country's target of producing less than 11 million barrels.
Next, the appreciation of the dollar, pending the Fed's decision to raise the interest rate again, also has its impact on the price of "black gold".
The number of oilfields in the United States has risen to 862, according to Baker Hughes. This is their highest level since March 2015. This suggests that US production, which is already at a record of 10.82 million barrels per day, may continue to rise in the future.
Oil prices, however, have changed their negative course, following comments by the oil minister of Iraq, that oil-producing countries should not be pressed to produce more oil.

US producers increase their oil production

The US oil producers is clearly the most satisfied group of high oil prices. The cost of raw materials declined on Friday after it became clear that OPEC and Russia could increase their production. And the latter may be the result of US production growth in an environment of rising production.
US crude oil lost about 1 percent of its value to $66.39 a barrel late Friday, while the Brent fell 0.6 percent to $77.07 and was already more than $3 below its highest since late May.
US oil production is growing at a good pace and weekly data show no signs of slowing down, according to Seaport Global analysts, adding that growth is mainly driven by Texas and New Mexico.
US oil production rose 215,000 barrels per day to 10.47 million barrels per day in March, according to the US energy ministry. Production in Texas rose 4% to 4.2 million barrels per day, while that in New Mexico - by 6.5% on a monthly basis.
Increasing production by US companies in the US is a reality when the market increasingly talks about Russia and OPEC being able to override accepted production constraints. Namely the latter were the basis of the strong rise in oil prices to a maximum of four and a half years.

Oil between $50 and $75 suits everyone

Over the past four days, US crude oil fell nearly 10 percent of the cyclical peak $73 a barrel, reaching yesterday low at $65. This poses the question - has the downward correction of the raw material been exhausted and can it start rising again?
The sharp decline in oil became a reality as a result of the data that Saudi Arabia and Russia are considering increasing production. Both parties signaled some increase in their production.
It is the trade between Russia and OPEC in the past year to curb production, triggering a strong rise in raw material prices.
Experts, however, comment that the potential resistance of some OPEC members against Saudi Arabia and Russia's decision to boost production could lead to a certain return in the price of oil.
After the peak of 115 dollars in 2011, oil was traded in a range between 115 and 75 dollars for 30 months. Such developments would mean oil price rate in the range of between $70 and $50 over the next few years. And that would perfectly suit Russia and Saudi Arabia, according to market observers.
Any oil levels above this range are already leading to some problems for consumers related to inflation, as well as an upsurge in US oil production, which is becoming profitable.
So, it seems very likely that the price of oil will be kept in a relatively narrow range over the coming years.
There are, of course, some analysts who believe that the price of oil will continue to rise and may go beyond that limit. Some of them are experts from Goldman Sachs, according to which there is an essential background for growth in the price of oil.

Oil loses more than $4 on Friday, continues to go down

The price of oil continued with its exceptionally strong depreciation on Friday and the first day of the new week. Brent futures with delivery next month lost $1.1, or 1.4% on Friday's closing level.
US crude oil fell by 1.57 dollars, or 2.3% on Friday's closing level.
Brent and US oil fell respectively by 6.4 and 9 percent of its peak in early May. In China, oil fell 4.5 percent to 459 yuan a barrel (71.83 dollars a barrel).
The rise in oil prices in recent weeks has sparked serious debates among market participants and OPEC members about the impact of oil prices on the world economy, according Chittag Ay, chief economist at Morgan Stanley.
On Friday, Saudi Arabia and Russia, which are considered to be drivers of the oil market, said some oil production growth of 1 million barrels per day was under discussion.
Production cuts were the factor that led to substantial oil prices on international markets.
With the price rise, however, the US producer of US oil is also growing, benefiting from the high oil price.
Oil prices have collapsed after reports that Saudi Arabia and Russia have agreed to increase their production in the second half of the year, ANZ said.
US energy companies have added 15 new field deposits for the week to May 25.

USD/CAD: technical view for 05/25/18

The pair is trading near the upper limit of the range 1.2750-1.2900 against the background of correction of prices for crude oil. If oil quotes continue to decline, then the pair may continue local upward movement.
Technical picture:
The price is located above the lower line of the boundaries of the Bollinger bands, below EMA 5 and EMA 13. RSI is above the level of 50% and moves horizontally. Stochastics are neutral. MACD is above the zero mark and is growing. Indicators do not confirm each other.
Trading recommendations:
If the pair overcomes the 1.2900 mark, we should expect its local growth to 1.2970.

OPEC prepares markets for changing quotas

At the auction on Thursday Brent crude oil fell by more than 1% after once again did not dare to challenge the level of 80. In general, quotes remain high and continue to feed by the subject of sanctions, but the market is beginning to form fears of another kind that can put the end of the recent rally.
Before the semi-annual OPEC + summit in Vienna, a little less than a month remains, and exporters need to prepare the markets in advance for possible scenarios, so as not to shock investors and avoid sharp fluctuations in prices. It seems that this preparation is just beginning. By the way, according to rumors, all key producers of the Middle East support the weakening of quotas.
As this development, we can see a way out of long positions on Brent in a wave of profit-taking at still attractive levels for sale. Moreover, the downside risks will increase, if, for example, there are fears that Iran will be able to compensate losses from US sanctions at the expense of deliveries to the EU.
From a technical point of view, the probability of a downward breakout is now higher than the chance of a return above 80. Accordingly, the level 78 may be at risk, the loss of which will signal a further elimination of the longs. The catalyst for this movement may be the current report of Baker Hughes, if it indicates the resumption of the growth in the number of drilling in the US.

Misalignment of raw materials, despite the weaker dollar

Despite the weaker dollar, commodities denominated in the US currency ended last week in a mixed fashion as investors narrowed their positions in gold and oil on the last day of the week.
Copper finished slightly on Friday in positive territory due to the weakness of the US dollar. A sharp drop in the price of aluminum has limited the growth of copper.
July's copper futures ended at 3.1115, or woth an increase of 0.05%. The price was supported in the past week by declining copper stocks, which, according to technical analysts, could take the price to 3.1215.
Gold closed slightly down on Friday, but still managed to record its first weekly increase of four weeks. The metal market was backed last week by the dollar depreciation and lower interest rates on US government bonds.
Among the investors, there is speculation that the Fed will not be as aggressive in its policy of raising interest rates.
Gold futures with delivery in June lost $1.6, or 0.12% to $1 320.7 per ounce.
The announcement of a meeting between the United States and North Korea, which will take place in Singapore, also leads to a reduction in geopolitical tensions and, accordingly, weighs on the price of gold.
Meanwhile, the price of oil has fallen from its highest levels for the past three and a half years, but continues to trade relatively close to them. US crude oil fell 0.63 cents, or 0.9%, while brent fell by 0.35 cents, or 0.45%.

Oil with a strong downturn before Trump-Iran

Oil prices plunged 4% yesterday after media reported that Trump would most likely withdraw from the Iranian deal with the nuclear program.
The question now is how quickly Trump sanctions will be imposed on Iran and whether this will meet market expectations.
According to a report by The New York Times, President Trump has told French President Emanuel Macron that he will restore sanctions to Iran and will impose additional economic sanctions.
Macron has denied this information, quoted by Reuters.
Oil prices will continue to be extremely volatile and to be influenced by news related to Washington-Iran relations.
The Brent lost 2.3 percent of its value to $74.42 a barrel, while US crude futures fell 2.8 percent to $68.73 a barrel.

US vs. Iran: the game begins

The prices for oil on Thursday after correction in the last few days again moved to growth: Brent crude again continues to try to gain a foothold at $75 per barrel, North American oil WTI is in an attempt to overcome the mark of $68.5 per barrel.
The situation in the Middle East continues to worsen: the Iranian issue added to the Syrian issue, full of uncertainty: the peak moment will be May 12, as the question of the possibility of imposing new sanctions against Iran on the part of the US is being resolved because of the reluctance of the oil Middle East giant to meet halfway in the issue of revision of the nuclear deal.
If sanctions are imposed, one of the largest oil producers will again be withdrawn from the game, which can raise the cost of raw materials not only up to $80, but much higher.

GS: Brutal inflation and a Brent price of $82 in a few months

According to the US investment bank, investors must target the shares of dividend companies... because unpredictable inflation is forthcoming.
And it is very possible that the new Fed leader will resort to four interest rises this year and much more in the next year.
The bank does not recommend investors to close their long positions, but warn them to be extremely careful.
Here are some suggestions of the bank's letter to its clients:
There is inflationary pressure on wage growth for Americans, with average hourly wages rising by 3% on an annual basis.
The gradual rise in expectations for interest rates hikes by the Fed, which can still be defined as not very aggressive, given the dangers of rising inflation.
The bank expects a price increase for Brent to $82.50 a barrel, by the middle of the year.

ING predicts oil price of $ 57 by the end of the year

Dutch bank ING forecasts a barrel price of $57 in the second half of this year. According to the financial institution, there is a risk that oil will fall below $60 a barrel as a result of an increase in exports from the US to Asia.
It is very likely to initiate a split between the OPEC agreement to cut production, experts from the Dutch bank said.
The fact that, in an environment of decline in production by OPEC and Russia, the US is increasing its production and exports to Asia, it may lead to some OPEC countries starting to retreat from the agreed production constraints.
And this could lead to a depreciation of oil, which added more than 40% since June last year.

Oil prices are stabilizing after the sharp drop

Oil prices stabilized on Tuesday morning after a strong decline in the previous trading session, prompted by expectations of further growth in the extraction of raw materials in the US. Futures for the North Sea Brent blend dropped 0.05 percent to $64.92 per barrel.
Futures contracts for US light oil WTI by this time traded at $61.33 per barrel, which is 0.05 percent lower than the previous closing.
On Monday, both benchmarks fell by about one percent.
Oil prices fell due to fears that the increase in production in the US could lead to an increase in the stock of raw materials in the country, analysts of the ANZ bank believe.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its March review raised the forecast for oil production in the US in 2018. The Office expects that the volume of production of raw material in the US on average will grow by more than 120,000 barrels per day to 11.17 million barrels per day by the fourth quarter of this year. The previous forecast assumed growth to 11.04 million barrels per day.
Moreover, the production of shale oil resources in the US in April will increase by 131,000 barrels per day by March to 6.95 million barrels per day - a fresh maximum, according to the EIA.
The focus of investors' attention is data on weekly stocks of oil and petroleum products in the US from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and official EIA statistics.

Natural gas futures fell during the US session

Quotations of natural gas futures fell during the American session on Monday.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange NYMEX, natural gas futures for March delivery were trading at $2,564, down by 0.23%.
The minimum of the session was $2527. Natural gas found support at $2,530 and resistance - at $2,623.
As for other products traded on the NYMEX, WTI futures for delivery in April rose 1.35% to reach $62.38 per barrel, while fuel oil futures for March delivery rose 1.33% to a level of 1.9359 dollars per gallon.

Oil prices rise fourth consecutive session

Oil is growing in price during the fourth consecutive session against the backdrop of growing demand for risky assets.
The price of April futures for Brent crude on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures rose by $0.38 (0.59%) - to $65.22 per barrel.
The cost of the WTI futures contract for March in the electronic trading of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) increased by $0.41 (0.66%) to $62.09 per barrel.
According to experts, oil prices could again shift to a decrease if another weekly report from the US Department of Energy indicates an increase in oil production in the country. At the same time, the volume of oil produced in the States is already at a record high in history.
At the end of last week, the oil service company Baker Hughes reported an increase in the number of operating oil drilling rigs in the US for the fourth week in a row - to 798.
The indicator mainly reflects the recovery of production at shale deposits. It is expected that by the next month, production at the Permian field will grow to a record 2.99 million barrels per day. With this indicator, the region could take the fourth place among all the OPEC countries.

Citigroup: Oil could rise to $ 80 a barrel

Oil prices, rising on Wednesday after US oil drops, may continue to grow to $ 80 a barrel. This is predicted by Citigroup Inc.
The reason for these expectations is the geopolitical risks largely unrelated to the Middle East, as well as the uncertainty of President Trump's policy.
Oil prices have risen heavily as OPEC countries have taken a policy extension to curb their production by the end of this year. Subsequently, the price was further supported by the riots in Iran.
Last week, however, oil has suffered heavy losses as a result of massive sell-offs on world stock markets, which has led many investors to close their long oil positions to reduce risk or lock their profits.
And yet, as the most systematic risk to the raw material remains President Trump, according to analysts of the State Bank.
If the US imposes sanctions again on Iran, the third largest oil producer in OPEC, the price of oil could rise by $ 5 only as a result of this action, the Bank's analysts said.