UBS: The dollar is heading for a difficult 2018

The US currency will most likely be disappointing next year against the euro, despite the expected continued interest rate hike by the Fed, according to experts from UBS.
The Fed is expected to raise the interest rate three times in the following year. Traditionally an increase in interest is assumed to be good for the US currency, so the forecast is a bit surprising.
Since the beginning of the year, the euro has risen by 11.5% against the dollar.
The financial institution's strategists believe that, fundamentally, the euro remains cheap and a better performance of European economies should channel a further appreciation of the single currency.
The bank expects the dollar to perform well against the Canadian dollar and the Japanese yen next year. The outlook for inflation in Canada remains weak, so the recent appreciation of the Canadian currency may have exhausted its strength.
Strengthening the power of the current Japanese Prime Minister will most likely trigger a further policy of incentives and low interest rates by the central bank. So, the weakness of the Japanese currency is likely to continue with full force, according to UBS.

Canadian dollar falls from highs due to lower oil prices

The Canadian dollar fell against its US counterpart on Tuesday, as oil rally ended as a result of profit taking by investors, as the market focused on the meeting of the Bank of Canada this week.
Pair USD/CAD rose by 0.30% to 1.3310. On Monday, the pair reached 1.3235, the lowest level since 21 October.
Oil prices fell on Tuesday to 16-month highs after data showed that the OPEC oil production reached in November another record high.
OPEC last week managed to sign an agreement on the limitation of production, which can reduce the excess of reserves of the world, which was followed by a sharp jump in oil prices, the main part of Canada's exports.
The increase in production before the coming into force in January an agreement to reduce production caused concern that the global excess of reserves can continue in 2017.

USD/CAD has won back losses on strong US statistics

The US dollar has won back losses against the Canadian Dollar on Tuesday and is trading at nine-month highs, supported by upbeat US economic data, while the decline in oil prices is putting pressure on the Canadian currency.
In early US trade, the pair USD/CAD rebounded from 1.3489, the session low, to 1.3527, still down by 0.26%.
The pair was likely to receive support at 1.3420, Friday's low, and resistance at 1.3589, Monday's high and a nine-month high level.
Demand for the dollar as a whole is stored on hopes that the presidency of Trump would increase budget spending, will come to tax cuts and a weakening of the financial regulation, which, in turn, will contribute to improving the economic growth and inflation.
The Canadian dollar remained under pressure as oil prices continue to decline amid concerns of oversupply of world reserves.
Canadian dollar is higher against the euro, with EUR/CAD rose by 0.29% to 1.4516.

ING: The yen will rise to 95, the euro - to 1.15, and the Canadian dollar could drop to 1.38

A verbal intervention by the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan after the rise of the yen is quite possible, but unilateral intervention beyond the level of 100 seems unlikely, say analysts at ING.
According to them there is a risk of collapse of the USD/JPY to 95 amid growing demand for protective assets, which may cause Japanese authorities to strengthen verbal and actual intervention in the currency market.
ING Analysts' forecasts after winning the US presidential election by Trump suggest growth of EUR/USD to 1.15, but any growth will be limited, taking into account that the re-evaluation of the prospects for an increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve was partially compensated by a concern for the affairs of European exporters.
We can see a sharp movement on the USD/CAD to 1.38, as the global market will avoid the risk, analysts said. There are concerns about the expectations of easing of the monetary policy by the Bank of Canada, taking into account the current uncertainty in the US. All the factors are negative for the Canadian dollar. On the other hand the bank of Switzerland would remain on the market and will closely monitor francs and will resort to actual intervention, analysts said. USD/CHF will follow the dynamics of EUR/USD, they added.

The dollar steadied against the euro after a shock reaction to the victory of Donald Trump

The US dollar steadied against the euro and the majority of the world's currencies after falling sharply against the background of the panic caused by the victory of Donald Trump's presidential election in the United States.
Despite the fact that before voting probability of presidency for Hillary Clinton was estimated at 80%, D. Trump managed to win in the key "fluctuating" states. His victory was called by the US media the biggest surprise in the history of the US electoral system.
The euro exchange rate against the US dollar by 20:38 GMT was $1.0922 compared with $ 1.1026 at the close of the previous session. Earlier in the trade, the dollar fell to $1.1300 per euro.
Meanwhile, the Mexican peso fell in value by 7.5%, earlier that day its fall against the dollar exceeded 11%, which was a record for 20 years. According to economists, the election of President Trump could worsen relations between the two countries and to reduce the volume of trade. The newly-elected president spoke about the possible cancellation of a free trade zone with Mexico and Canada. Canadian dollar against the US dollar decreased by 1%.

USD/CAD rebounded from lows and won back losses

On Thursday, the US dollar regained ground against the Canadian dollar after the publication of upbeat data on benefits for unemployment in the US, as well as a disappointing report on the volume of permits for construction in Canada.
In early US trade, the pair USD/CAD rebounded from 1.2851, the session low, to 1.2902, gained 0.10%.
The pair was likely to receive support at 1.2818, Wednesday's low and resistance at 1.2934, the high of September 6th.
US Department of Labor said, that the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week ending September 3 fell by a seasonally adjusted 4,000 to 259,000 from 263,000 the previous week. Analysts had forecast for a decline of 2,000 to 265,000.
However, sentiment on the dollar remained fragile after the release of weak employment data in the United States on last Friday, as the expectations for rate rise by the Federal Reserve have lowered.
Also on Thursday, Canada's Statistics reported that the amount of issued building permits rose by 0.8% in July, while they were expected to grow by 0.3%. In June, the volume of building permits declined by 5.3%, the value was revised from the preliminary 5.5%.
But the commodity "Canadian" was supported against the background of rising oil prices, as market participants expect fresh weekly information on US stockpiles of crude oil and petroleum products.
Canadian fell against the euro, EUR/CAD rose by 0.86% to 1.4608.

USD/CAD rising in anticipation of Yellen speech

On Wednesday, the US dollar was higher against the Canadian dollar, as investors are waiting for the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen on Friday.
At the beginning of the US trade, the pair USD/CAD reached 1.2953, the session high; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.2932, adding 0.16%.
The pair was likely to find support at 1.2854, Tuesday's low, and resistance at 1.2997, the high of August 12.
Market participants are waiting for the outlook of Yellen's on US economy, after the hawkish comments of other Fed officials in recent weeks and release of protocols of the July meeting of the Federal Committee, which showed that its members still disagree on the need to raise rates this year.
The US dollar was supported after data on Tuesday showed, that the volume of new home sales jumped by 12.4% to 654,000 last month, although the forecasts were for decline by 2.0%.
Investors remain cautious on the eve of speech of the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen on Friday.
At the same time the Canadian dollar remaind under pressure from falling of oil prices on Wednesday.
Canadian dollar rose against the euro, EUR/CAD fell by 0.18% to 1.4572.

CAD - daily note for August 11

The best results after the US dollar today showed the Canadian dollar, unexpectedly and significantly raised in the conditions of strengthening USD. This very remarkable fact is fully explained by the increase in oil prices by 4.5%. Discussions on possible measures to stabilize oil prices caused the increase in commodities, although the talks will take place only at the informal meeting at the end of next month. The probability of changes in production volume is small, but today there weren't no major factors, so even a minimum chance was enough for USD/CAD to fall to its lowest level for the month.

The pair USD/CAD has grown up after the release of US and Canadian data

On Tuesday, the US dollar registered growth against the Canadian supported by the upbeat US reports, while disappointing data on manufacturing sales in Canada put pressure on the local currency.
Pair USD/CAD reached 1.2950 during early US trade, the session high, and subsequently consolidated at 1.2946, gaining 0.42%.
The pair was likely to find support at 1.2768, the low of May 12 and resistance at 1.3014, the high of May 9th.
The dollar found support after the US Commerce Department said that housing starts rose in April by 6.6% to 1.172 million units, compared with expectations of increase to 1.127 million units.