Trump does not like the Fed's policy

When Donald Trump does not like something, he does not bother to share it. Even if this can have consequences on financial markets. Last week, the US president criticized the Fed's policy.
According to the president, every time when Us economy goes up, FED wants to raise rates. And Trump's really not happy about this.
And Trump's comments have led to a certain decline in the dollar against other major currencies on Thursday.
The yuan has been distinguished from the depreciation of the dollar. The Chinese currency has fallen to over one year's bottom.
Investors continue to worry about the decline of the yuan against the US dollar. The Chinese currency reached 6.8106 yuan per dollar, with the psychological limit of 6.8 being exceeded for the first time in more than a year.
China Central Bank announced a rate of 6.7671 yuan before opening the market on Friday, which was the lowest level in a year.
According to analysts, Trump's remarks can trigger investors who think buying dollars to postpone their deals.
Trump's comment on Thursday is not the first in which the president expresses dissatisfaction with the strong dollar. Earlier, in interview with Wall Street Journal Trump had said even more openly that the dollar was "too strong".

What can happen if Trump is removed (2)?

An initial reaction in such a scenario would be the suspension of the so-called Trump Rally, which has taken the US indices to new historical records, according to Peter Kenny, chief strategist at the Global Markets Advisory Group. The expert commented that the investors really felt comfortable about what to expect from Trump as president.
Fundamentally, the US economy remains in good shape in an environment of low inflation and steady growth. Meanwhile, Trump's nomination for Jerome Powell's fed leader has won the admiration of market players.
It is possible, after the initial shock to the market, with a potential removal of Trump, that markets quickly find support, Kenny said. Pens, is likely to continue with Trump's planned tax policies, as well as the nominated Powell.
Or, according to a number of experts, such political uncertainty can be short-lived and quickly overcome. And if you follow Buffett's advice - to buy when everyone is afraid, a deeper adjustment of the indices, could provide good opportunities for investors to enter the market.

What can happen if Trump is removed (1)?

Financial markets have experienced a difficult Friday last week. The leading US indices dropped momentarily after it became clear that Michael Flynn admitted he had lied in the testimony given to the FBI and could provide new evidence of inappropriate relations between President Trump and Russia.
What could happen?
The chances for President Trump to step down from his post are rising. This could be the worst scenario for investors because it would lead to serious political uncertainty at a time when stock prices rose seriously in anticipation of Trump's tax reform. The latter, however, is delayed and there are serious chances not to become a reality since the beginning of next year, as were the real expectations of investors.
There is a real opportunity for Washington to turn to its biggest crisis since the Watergate scandal in the early 1970s. At the same time, when Trump is removed, he is expected to be replaced by current Vice President Mike Pens, who would become premature the 46th US president.
And while this still seems like a fairly unlikely scenario, more and more investors are beginning to wonder, what would President Pens mean for the US stock markets?

Demand for gold rose after the political events in the US

Political developments in the US since the end of last week have prompted investors to raise demand for "rescue assets".
The gold has taken advantage of the situation and has appreciated. The noble metal added 1% of its value to levels above $1,290 per ounce.
More and more experts are beginning to talk about testing a psychological limit of $1,300. The last level has been limiting the growth of the metal over the past few months. If level will overcome, however, we can very quickly see a further appreciation for the yellow metal to $1,350, and later to $1,400.
The rise became a fact after former Donald Trump's security advisor Michael Flynn said he was ready to testify about unlawful ties between Trump and Russia.
The report raised fears that Trump may soon not be the president of the United States, leading to serious political and economic shocks.

Gold continues to lose positions

Gold fell yesterday after investors were eagerly awaiting the announcement of the new Fed leader who would feed the dollar. At the same time, US indices are trading very close to their record highs.
President Trump told the media on Monday that he was "very, very close" to his choice of a new Fed leader.
The spot price of gold fell by 0.5% to $1 276 per ounce after falling to $ 1,271.86 an ounce a day earlier.
Gold futures with delivery in December fell by 0.2 percent to $1 278.9 per ounce.
The spot price of gold lost 6 percent of its one-year high on September 8, at a level of $1,357.54 per ounce. Expectations are that the Fed will raise rates in December for the third time this year.
Gold also does not receive support in the direction of geopolitical uncertainty. Recently, there is nothing new about North Korea, or the situation seems quite relaxed.

Shares are cheaper, the dollar and gold are rising after Trump's threats

Global stocks fell and gold rose after US President Donald Trump said in connection with North Korea's provocations that they would be welcomed with fire.
The dollar appreciated against other major currencies as a result of increased uncertainty.
The S&P 500 index ended with minimum daily values ​​yesterday, following Trump's comments.
Trump's comments came after earlier yesterday from the capital of North Korea said they were ready to give Washington a cruel lesson of available strategic nuclear power in any US military action.
Serious increase also registered the volatility index. After the previous day VIX ended at a level below 10 points, it grew heavily yesterday, ending at its highest levels for a month.
The dollar rose by 0.5% against the euro to 1.1730 dollars for one euro.
Gold added about 1% to its value, following increased geopolitical tension, rising at trading levels of more than $1,273.

ANZ: The bearish attitudes to the dollar are overexposed

The US dollar received a serious "slap" this year, with the dollar index down by 9% since the beginning of the year. Not all analysts, however, are so negative towards the dollar.
The political uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration is cited by ANZ analysts as the main reason for the "excessive depreciation of the dollar" over other major currencies.
Leverage funds currently have a net short position in the dollar, which has taken the levels of "green money" far beyond the foundation, analysts said.
The weakness of the underlying reserve currency became a reality, despite the rise in Fed's interest rates, which outstripped other central banks around the world. In addition, the Fed's balance sheet is expected to start shrinking relatively soon, which will be another factor that will work to support the US dollar.

Citi: Trump's impeachment risks have risen

For investors, President Trump's impeachment option seems unlikely. Citi Bank, however, warns that the likelihood of this has risen.
The comments from the banks became reality after Donald Trump Jr., tweeted emails detailing his greetings, after sources identified as related to the Russian government have disclosed compromising emails to President-elect candidate Hillary Clinton.
Markets have reacted negatively to this information, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average index losing 129 points of its value immediately before recovering all its losses.
Impeachment is unlikely given the complexity of this process and the lack of sufficient evidence of a "serious crime," according to Citi analysts.
The bank also commented that such a solution would require serious political pressure, and Republicans who control Congress at the moment would hardly allow this to happen.
On the other hand, and despite many unknowns in Trump-Russia relations, Citi analysts believe that the risk of impeachment for the US president is now higher than before, although this is still not a baseline scenario.

Trump: Everyone is 'getting rich' from the stock market except for me

President Donald Trump found time during his visit to Warsaw to comment on the recent US indexes.
In his speech, Trump noted that the recent rally in the stock markets makes "everyone else rich".
"And the United States is doing very well — very strong. We've taken off restrictions and people are really moving hard. So when I say that the stock market is at an all-time high, we've picked up in market value almost $4 trillion since November 8, which was the election. Four trillion dollars — it's a lot of money. Personally, I picked up nothing, but that's all right. Everyone else is getting rich. That's OK. I'm very happy," Trump said in his speech.
Trump, not once and twice, turns to historical record highs of US indices of previous weeks. According to him, the media do not pay enough attention to this to fact.
"Dow hit a new intraday all-time high! I wonder whether or not the Fake News Media will so report?", the US president said on Monday in his Twitter.
And while the Dow Jones industrial index was recording an intraday peak, it eventually ended at a record closing level of June 19. At the same time, the tecnological index Nasdaq is already around 200 points from its peak on June 8.
With regard to Trump, the administration of the president said that the new president had liquidated all his shares in June 2016.
According to Trump, USA have, at the moment, the lowest unemployment rate since 16 years.

The dollar with the worst quarter for years

The president Donald Trump goes firmly to his goal - the US dollar has finished its worst quarter for years.
According to Trump, any weakness of the dollar is a major goal of his administration. The president's logic is that the weak US currency will stimulate companies and, accordingly, the country's economy.
Green money rose to a peak of 14 years in December, but since then it has become cheaper as a result of expectations for measures by the new administration.
In the second quarter, the dollar index, measuring the performance of the US currency against other major currencies, fell by 4.6%. This was its worst quarter since the third quarter of 2010.
The disappointing data on the US economy, coupled with good European data, helped to guide the dollar in the direction desired by Trump.
In addition, central banks around the world have expressed the view that it is time to change the course of their current stimulus policies. Including in Europe. This gave an extra boost to the euro.
The only weak link, at this stage, remains Japan. There the incentives are expected to last longer than in the rest of the world.

Trump did not excited markets

World markets on Wednesday showed mixed dynamics. The positive expectations of declaring the details of the tax reform in the US have been replaced by a negative reaction.
European markets on Wednesday grew up on expectations of the US president's speech on tax reform and the meeting of the European Central Bank. The US president did not intrigue: the details of the tax reform were published in the media the day before, and its items in general correspond to the pre-election program. The reform assumes a significant reduction in the tax burden for both business and the public. In particular, the maximum tax on companies' profits is proposed to be reduced from 35% to 15%. In relation to individuals, there are more indulgences: a reduction in the maximum income tax rate from 39.6% to 35%, a lower rate to 10-25%, while it is planned to abolish the inheritance tax and double the standard deductions. The reaction of the US markets to Trump's speech turned out to be moderately negative. Investors obviously expected more details, but in the current form the initiative of the new administration looks weak in terms of the possibility of its harmonization in the Congress.

Review of today's macroeconomic events

Today Donald Trump for the first time will appear in front of representatives of both US Houses of Parliament with their vision regarding the implementation of plans for the pre-election program. The main points of his speech will be the cancellation of Obamacare, the implementation of infrastructure projects in the energy sector, aimed at creating new jobs, and changes in tax legislation. This last point is extremely important for the global stock market. On the one hand, there may be disclosed tax incentives for the transfer of production in the US for many American manufacturers. From the other hand, it will be possible to assess the implications of these initiatives for the Asian and European economies. Given the uncertainty of the results of performance of Donald Trump, investors around the world are afraid to make deals. Trade turnover in the European and Asian markets today fell on average by 20% compared with the values ​​of the last two weeks. To date, European indexes traded in a small plus. Published today in France, statistics on GDP growth coincided with market expectations, growth of the economy of the country amounted to 1.2% y/y.

Policy as a driver of the dollar

Wednesday passed without critical economic data amid growing geopolitical uncertainty. According to the chief economic analyst at Bloomberg, now the markets are moving not from economic data and the decisions of the Fed, but from the new US president Donald Trump, who controls market assets.
EUR/USD recorded minimal growth during the last session closing the session at 1.0697, although during the day it was trading at 1.0640.
The British pound also ended on green territory, closing at 1.2539. Recent data for inflation showed that it has accelerated to 1.6% in December.
New Zealand dollar recorded a second consecutive decline after the central bank left interest rates unchanged. NZD/USD ended the day at 0.7263.
The Australian dollar recorded growth, closing at 0.7643, breaking the two-day decline.
The Canadian dollar rose against the US dollar after oil broke decline, which began on Monday. USD/CAD closed at 1.3142.
Gold continued its upward range having passed 1,240 and closed at 1241.28 dollars an ounce.

Dollar demonstrates rally against the Trump's victory

The dollar held close to the peak of three and a half months against the yen on Friday after rising last night, caused by the growth of the markets bets for the US economy and the rise in interest rates during the presidency of Donald Trump.
By 5.30 GMT the dollar fell slightly to 106.63 yen after rising to 106.950 yen at night - a maximum of 21 July.
The dollar is preparing to finish the week woth 3.3 percent growth against the Japanese yen, although earlier it was believed that the safe yen would gain against dollar in case of Trump's victory on presidential election in the United States.
The dollar on Wednesday briefly fell to around 101 yen after the Republican defeated Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton.
Now, however, the dollar demonstrates rally amid risk aversion and US bonds yields rise due to expectations that the Trump policy will support costs and accelerate inflation.
Trump promised large-scale of tax cuts and developing of infrastructure that can increase the US budget deficit.
Mexican peso stood at the level of 20.55 to the dollar, close to the record low reached on Wednesday.
The euro traded near $1.0906 after losing 1 percent last night and preparing to show a drop by 2.3 percent for the week.
The dollar has not changed to a safe Swiss franc, holding at a level of 0.9860 after falling to near three-month low of 0.9550 on Wednesday.
Sterling held position against the dollar, trading just below the monthly peak of $1.2585, reached on Thursday.

The dollar steadied against the euro after a shock reaction to the victory of Donald Trump

The US dollar steadied against the euro and the majority of the world's currencies after falling sharply against the background of the panic caused by the victory of Donald Trump's presidential election in the United States.
Despite the fact that before voting probability of presidency for Hillary Clinton was estimated at 80%, D. Trump managed to win in the key "fluctuating" states. His victory was called by the US media the biggest surprise in the history of the US electoral system.
The euro exchange rate against the US dollar by 20:38 GMT was $1.0922 compared with $ 1.1026 at the close of the previous session. Earlier in the trade, the dollar fell to $1.1300 per euro.
Meanwhile, the Mexican peso fell in value by 7.5%, earlier that day its fall against the dollar exceeded 11%, which was a record for 20 years. According to economists, the election of President Trump could worsen relations between the two countries and to reduce the volume of trade. The newly-elected president spoke about the possible cancellation of a free trade zone with Mexico and Canada. Canadian dollar against the US dollar decreased by 1%.