Страници

Sunday, 30 April 2017

Good results from Amazon and Alphabet

The US indices and the dollar remained unchanged on Thursday, in expectation of the key news about the growth of the US economy on Friday.
The S&P 500 is trading very close to its historic peak, and whether it will be overcome will depend on its medium-term movement.
Reported good results from US companies have helped the technological Nasdaq to rise to a new historic record.
After the good results, Amazon.com's shares rose to a new historic record at the OTC session, where they added nearly 5% of their value. The company posted sales growth of 23 percent to $35.7 billion, which exceeded analysts' average expectations of $35.2 billion.
The market capitalization of the company is approaching the psychological limit of $200 billion.
After the good results, a growth of nearly 4% recorded also Alphabet Inc. The company's profit has risen by 29% over the past quarter and shows no signs of slowing pace.

Record highs of purchases of call options on the S&P500

In light of expected tax changes by President Trump, investors have bought record volumes of call options based on the broad S&P500 index.
This has led to a record ratio between call and put options of the index on Thursday. Last time, when this ratio was so high, the index has seen an increase of 3% over the next two weeks, experts from Credit Suisse recall.
The increase in the ratio to a new record has become a reality on Thursday before the publication of Trump tax reforms. In practice, the ratio began to rise after the US presidential election in November last year.
It reached a record high on Feb. 14, after which the broad index rose by 3% over the next few days to reach a historic record on March 1.
Often, this ratio is also used by countertraders, especially when at peak levels. And the current ones may be a good indicator of peak market optimism, which is the first worrying signal for the markets.

Friday, 28 April 2017

Beijing promises further internationalization of the yuan and a free trade

China will continue to promote the internationalization of the renminbi, as well as free trade and investment, Vice Chairman of the People's Bank of China Fan Yifei said on Thursday.
The head of the regulator is sure that achieving sustainable economic growth and maintaining financial stability will create a good basis for the internationalization of the renminbi, the Central Bank's website said.
However, the process will be long, and the decisive role will be played by market forces, he said at a conference in Sydney.
The head of the central bank of Australia, Philip Lowe, on Thursday commented on the statement of the Chinese colleague, calling the internationalization of the yuan entailing significant consequences for the global financial system.
Fears of further weakening of the yuan and slowing the world's second largest economy prompted investors to withdraw funds abroad. In response, at the end of 2016 and early 2017, Beijing imposed restrictions on capital outflow, which influenced the pace of internationalization of the national currency. However, the weakening pressure of capital outflow helped to stabilize the yuan this year, while the country's foreign exchange reserves again exceeded the key $3 trillion mark.

Thursday, 27 April 2017

Euro/dollar in the near future will still close the gap

The euro/dollar is falling and is trading near the 1.088 mark. Following the meeting, the ECB left the interest rate unchanged at zero level. The decision of the bank was expected, therefore the market reaction is indirect. However, the growth of volatility is still possible, in the evening there will be a press conference of the bank, whose rhetoric will be closely evaluated. I assume that in the near future the pair will close the gap. Also in the evening there will be statistics from the US: orders for durable goods, unemployment data and unfinished sales in the real estate market.

Trump did not excited markets

World markets on Wednesday showed mixed dynamics. The positive expectations of declaring the details of the tax reform in the US have been replaced by a negative reaction.
European markets on Wednesday grew up on expectations of the US president's speech on tax reform and the meeting of the European Central Bank. The US president did not intrigue: the details of the tax reform were published in the media the day before, and its items in general correspond to the pre-election program. The reform assumes a significant reduction in the tax burden for both business and the public. In particular, the maximum tax on companies' profits is proposed to be reduced from 35% to 15%. In relation to individuals, there are more indulgences: a reduction in the maximum income tax rate from 39.6% to 35%, a lower rate to 10-25%, while it is planned to abolish the inheritance tax and double the standard deductions. The reaction of the US markets to Trump's speech turned out to be moderately negative. Investors obviously expected more details, but in the current form the initiative of the new administration looks weak in terms of the possibility of its harmonization in the Congress.

Sunday, 23 April 2017

Wells Fargo: Short-term weakness of USD/JPY

Wells Fargo Securities chief strategist Erick Viloria predicts further weakness of the dollar against the yen in the short term in an interview with Bloomberg.
The reason for these expectations is the political uncertainty in Europe and other parts of the world that can make investors look for the yen as a safe haven.
The head of the Japanese central bank said on Thursday that the institution will continue its accumulation policy until the inflation targets are met. This is happening in an environment of rising interest rates from the Fed, which makes the situation favorable to the dollar against the yen.
Nevertheless, Viloria points to the previous few interest raises, in which market participants "bought on rumors and sold on news". That is to say, that the difference in the policies of the two central banks - the US and the Japanese - is already calculated in USD/JPY trading levels.

EUR/GBP - time to sell

Traders who traded the GBP were greatly surprised when British Prime Minister Teresa May announced that early elections will be held in the United Kingdom on June 8th. For some time, the Conservative Party has overriding the opposition, according to polls, so the prospect of them remaining in power continues to be up to date, and such a development of events will not have a particular weight on the markets. In the short term, additional information is needed to keep the pound rally.
EUR/USD also rose, on a par with the British currency, in part due to a weakening dollar.
In terms of technical analysis, in the currency pair, there is a breakthrough in the key support for a reversing "head and shoulders" figure, which has been developing for 9 months. We can look for short positions at the current price, putting a stop at 0.8460 and a target 0.7886.