What to expect from NASDAQ?

In recent days, the big US and European indices have experienced difficulties and slowed their growth amid worries about a global trade war. Tensions between the United States and China continue to rise after US Trade Representative Robert Laitizer announced that the US is considering increasing duties from 10% to 25%.
Looking at what is happening with the NASDAQ index and the rest of the world's largest indexes since the beginning of the year, we will notice that at the end of January we had a fairly deep correction (around 12-13% on NASDAQ). But this adjustment was very easily accepted by the market and new buyers quickly entered.
After this correction, which ended in February, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones did not manage to mark new highs. The same thing happened in the European indexes. Only the French CAC40 managed to reach a new peak, but failed to keep it. In contrast, NASDAQ gained a 6% lead and remained the only bullish base index.
The technology companies that have the greatest weight in the so-called FANG (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google) and Apple continue to grow (except for the results of the reports).
This means that cash managers are starting to invest in just one group of shares, and if there will be some adjustment in these companies, there will be tremendous problems for long positions in NASDAQ.
Still, my expectations are that NASDAQ is likely to continue to rise in the short to medium term (next 1-2 weeks).

Nasdaq is down and everyone is fleeing from FANG companies

US indices traded mixed yesterday, which is definitely a cause for concern. Technological Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 continued with their decline after new record highs reached, while Dow Jones rose.
The Nasdaq 100 Index declined for the first time in five days, with investors dumping and selling shares in the FANG group and targeting the stocks of the banking companies.
Interest rates on 10-year US bonds continue to keep below the psychological limit of 3%, but according to market observers the expected almost 100% rise in interest rates in June begins to weigh above the market and indices.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index returned its earlier earnings yesterday after disappointing factory orders in Germany. The euro appreciated as a result of rising expectations for the end of monetary stimulus in the euro area.

One simple reason explains the narrow range of US indices

US stocks have been "stuck" in a narrow range in recent weeks, and the key reason behind this is very simple - there is no leader to follow.
This happens relatively rarely in the stock - lacking unambiguous leaders to keep the whole market up. Compared to the past year when these were technological shares, this year's situation is completely different.
Markets experience relatively similar periods of lack of leadership, said Michael Wilson, market strategist at Morgan Stanley.
Since the beginning of the year, the S&P 500 has declined by 0.21%, while the blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.6%. At the same time, the Nasdaq technology is up 2.5%.
The sectors are mainly traded downward, with only three of the 11 major sectors on the positive territory for the year.
The best-performing sector is the consumer cycle, adding 5.5% to its value this year. This, however, is predetermined by the strong performance of several names. For example, Amazon.com, which accounts for around 20% of the sector, has increased its market capitalization by nearly 34% this year.
Shares of Netflix Inc. - the fifth largest component in the sector, rose by more than 63% since the beginning of the year. Other names, like Home Depot HD and Walt Disney, have been in negative territory since the beginning of the year.
For the market as a whole, the lack of a sector to lead growth is also a "worrying signal" by itself.
Analysts comment that such periods occur in times of transition from a growing market to a market that has found its peak or is about to find it. The situation is further compounded by interest rates on 10-year US bonds, which rose by more than 3%, and by expectations of main interest rates hike.
There are some signs that the energy sector may become a market leader. It has grown by 9.5% since the beginning of the month, which is the best performance among the 11 major sectors of the broad US index.

Beware of the technology sector

The investor who ruled the world's largest technology fund during the "technological boom", again warned investors to keep themselves from the technology sector at the moment.
Paul Meeks, managing director of Sloy, Dahl & Holst, predicted that a new turbulence approaching the markets, given the rising asset prices.
Because they are so volatile and high beta, in correction, they will not adjust just by 2%. They will be down 20%, Meeks commented before the CNBC financial magazine at the end of last week.
This does not mean that Meeks abandons technology companies. The investor who holds in his portfolio shares of Apple and other technology companies believes that the sector is strong.
According to him, he has been watching the technology industry for a long time, and he claims that the foundation behind technology companies and compared to the other 10 sectors of the broad index is stronger than ever.
The expert's warning became a reality in celebrating new historical records for the Nasdaq technology company index, which rose by more than 7 percent from its bottom, with the February correction.
Facebook's is the top company in the FANG group according to the expert, as well as chip makers.

Shock sale for US indices - Dow loses more than 660 points

Yesterday was extremely heavy for investors on US stock markets. The blue-chip index Dow Jones Industrial Average lost the devilish 666 points in its largest decline since June 2016.
The broad S&P 500 Index fell 2.1 percent to 2 761.91 points, or its lowest level since January 10. The European Stoxx Europe 600 reduced its value by 1.4%, bringing its weekly loss to 3.1%.
The rise in interest rates on US bonds, owing to expectations of further interest rates in the world's largest economy, largely predetermined the decline.
Investors had no place to hide in the stock market, as the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500 index declined. The five-day fall in the broad index took 3.9% of its value, the first such drop from a record 404 days. Energy companies lost 4.1% after the results of companies in the sector continue to disappoint, the price of oil has fallen.
Sales of technology companies declined, with the Nasdaq 100 Index down 2.1%. For the week, the index fell by 3.7%, or the most since February of 2006. Even the record price appreciation of Amazon.com Inc. could not soften the indicator's cut. It's at its lowest levels since October.

US indices ended in new records

US indices reached new historical records, awaiting the introduction of tax reform next week.
The S&P 500 indice, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq 100 Stock Index closed at historic records after it became clear that the final tax reforms will be presented late Friday, and a vote for their approval is expected next week.
Russell 2000 Index's Index for Small Businesses saw the ninth consecutive growth for the last 10 sessions, precisely following the expected reforms.
Still, there are some uncertainties about the final version of the tax reforms and whether they will not undergo any changes.
The S&P 500 rose 0.9 percent to a level of 2,675.63 points or the highest closing level in its history. The Nasdaq 100 added 1.2% and Nasdaq Composite added 1.2% to its value.

Credit Suisse: It's time to buy technology companies

News related to US tax reform has led to a serious downsizing of technology companies. And according to Jonathan Golub, an analyst at Credit Suisse, the time for purchases may have occurred.
Information becomes more and more about tax cuts, and investors now have more clarity. This led the US indices to new records, with investors shifting from technology to industrial and financial companies.
Last week we saw growth in consumer, financial and industrial companies and a decline in technology ones.
Technological companies generally outperformed the market this year, and will probably continue to do so next year, says Goleb.
Golub also pointed out that technology companies are traded at a slightly higher ratio than other companies. The cost-benefit ratio for technology companies is 19.8, while the S&P 500's is currently 18.2.

Decline for US indices yesterday

US indices dropped yesterday, with technology and energy companies struggling to dominate the market. The technological index dropped by 0.37% and the energy added 0.44% to its value.
Oil prices rose 1.5% to support energy companies. This happened after the US oil reserves fell in line with market participants' expectations.
Undoubted impact on the market was Yellen's speech at the University of New York. Yelan has suggested that the number of increases in interest rates in the coming year may be lower than expected.
The broad US index S&P 500 rose by about 16% this year. Yesterday the index failed to close above the psychological limit of 2,600 points.
Investors and analysts, however, are raising their expectations for index performance next year, with expectations for a two-digit rise in the index.
Traded volumes were minimal before Thanksgiving today and early closing on Friday. The Volatility Index (VIX) declined for the fifth trading session in a row, being close to its lowest levels for 23 years.
Technological companies were driven by a fall in Hewlett Packard Enterprise's stock of 7.8%, or their biggest decline since 2015. This happened after company manager Meg Whitman announced that she would step down from her post in February next year.

J. Bogle: The market is fully appreciated

When the index fund father - Jack Bogle, talks, everyone listens. And Bogle has a lot to say to investors. In his last interview, he said that the market is fully appreciated.
Although two of the three major US indices fell last week, they all reached new record highs this month. And that makes Bogle, the founder of the Vanguard Group, to believe that the market is fairly valued at the moment.
According to his standarts, the financial ratings of companies are quite high, said Bogle in an interview with TheStreet. He added that his standards are high.
This year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average blue chip index passed 20,000 points and is currently trading close to 23,000 points. Technological Nasdaq rose by 22.42% since the beginning of the year, while the broad S&P 500 grew over eight consecutive days, registering its longest winning series since 2013.
It is good for investors to realize that the market is fully appreciated, and if they feel nervous about its condition, it may be better to close a portion of its portfolio, thinks Bogle.

Trump: Everyone is 'getting rich' from the stock market except for me

President Donald Trump found time during his visit to Warsaw to comment on the recent US indexes.
In his speech, Trump noted that the recent rally in the stock markets makes "everyone else rich".
"And the United States is doing very well — very strong. We've taken off restrictions and people are really moving hard. So when I say that the stock market is at an all-time high, we've picked up in market value almost $4 trillion since November 8, which was the election. Four trillion dollars — it's a lot of money. Personally, I picked up nothing, but that's all right. Everyone else is getting rich. That's OK. I'm very happy," Trump said in his speech.
Trump, not once and twice, turns to historical record highs of US indices of previous weeks. According to him, the media do not pay enough attention to this to fact.
"Dow hit a new intraday all-time high! I wonder whether or not the Fake News Media will so report?", the US president said on Monday in his Twitter.
And while the Dow Jones industrial index was recording an intraday peak, it eventually ended at a record closing level of June 19. At the same time, the tecnological index Nasdaq is already around 200 points from its peak on June 8.
With regard to Trump, the administration of the president said that the new president had liquidated all his shares in June 2016.
According to Trump, USA have, at the moment, the lowest unemployment rate since 16 years.

Ron Paul: 25% correction of the markets and 50% growth for gold is not excluded

In an interview with CNBC, Ron Paul, a former GOP president, said the US economy is probably not as strong as everyone expects and the situation could become "ugly" by October.
According to him, if the market drops by 25% and gold is rising by 50%, it would not be a shock.
Such a scenario would take the broad US S&P 500 index to a level of $1,819 and gold to $1,867 per ounce relative to current levels.
Paul is known for his bearish expectations and open-ended critic of the Trump administration. He also often criticizes the Fed for maintaining interest rates at too low levels for too long.
This, of course, is not the first time that Paul predicts an adjustment. He did the same on June 28 2016, or just a year ago. Since then, the S&P 500 index has risen by 21% and Dow has added 24%. Technological Nasdaq is traded with an increase of 34%.
Paul, however, continues to hold on to his thesis.

Good results from Amazon and Alphabet

The US indices and the dollar remained unchanged on Thursday, in expectation of the key news about the growth of the US economy on Friday.
The S&P 500 is trading very close to its historic peak, and whether it will be overcome will depend on its medium-term movement.
Reported good results from US companies have helped the technological Nasdaq to rise to a new historic record.
After the good results, Amazon.com's shares rose to a new historic record at the OTC session, where they added nearly 5% of their value. The company posted sales growth of 23 percent to $35.7 billion, which exceeded analysts' average expectations of $35.2 billion.
The market capitalization of the company is approaching the psychological limit of $200 billion.
After the good results, a growth of nearly 4% recorded also Alphabet Inc. The company's profit has risen by 29% over the past quarter and shows no signs of slowing pace.

Dow Jones ran over the barrier of 20 000

On Wednesday, Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed and closed above the psychological level at 20,000 for the first time, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also went to record levels after the disclosure of upbeat corporate earnings of giants such as Boeing Co.
Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 0.8% to a price of 20,068.51 as Boeing Co. and Caterpillar Inc. contributed to solid gains.
S&P 500 recorded a growth of 0.8 percent to a record price of 2 298.37, eight of 11 major sectors finished with increases. Financial and industrial shares led the winners, while telecommunications and real estate were among the laggards.
Nasdaq Composite ended with a rise of 1% to a price of 5 656.34 points. Since the beginning of the year until now, Nasdaq surpasses other indexes, gaining 5.1 percent.

Growth in US stock markets after the minutes of the Federal Reserve

From the Fed protocol it became clear that the first increase in interest rates in a year was approved mostly because of market reaction after the presidential election and the expectations for an aggressive fiscal policy.
On Wednesday, the major indexes closed session overseas on green territory after minutes of the Fed was released. Although the name of the president-elect is not mentioned in the transcript, the impact of the vote on the markets and the economy seems to have been discussed.
Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by +0.30% closing at 19942.16. Broad S&P 500 rose by +0.57%, closing the session at 2270.75 points.
The technological Nasdaq added +0.88% and closed at 5477.07 points.

Optimism on the stock markets in Europe and the US the day before Fed's decision

European markets led by Italian shares ended with raise and overseas indexes are on their way to new highs in anticipation of the Fed's decision on interest rates in the US.
   
European shares rose to 11-month high on Tuesday as a major factor for this was the Italian shares and more accurate - UniCredit, which present a plan for restructuring and reform. European Stoxx 600 index added 1.06 percent and reached 357.50, making it the best price from January this year. This occurs after the beginning of the week the index lost 0.5%.
Italian banking sector added 5.83%, while shares of UniCredit achieved a growth of 15.92 percent, after it became clear that the bank would cut 6500 employees by 2019 and that they will start selling stocks and bonds. This was welcomed by the markets in anticipation of stabilizing the bank. The market capitalization of the bank is worth 15 billion euros.
In the UK, FTSE 100 climbed by 1.13% to 6968, which is the highest level for six weeks. The main reason for growth also was the banking sector, which managed to prevail over the loss of the energy sector.
Overseas investors are about to find out whether Dow Jones will overcome the psychological level of 20 000. On Tuesday the index added new 114 points and climbed to 19,911 after reaching a peak for the day of 19 953. SP500 added 15 points to 2272, as 9 of the 11 sectors finished at plus. The tech Nasdaq added 59 points to 5471.