GS: The bitcoin can make some more swings before reaching a new record

Investors and analysts are under pressure in connection with the forthcoming decision on 1st of August, whether we will see a split in the bitcoin and the currency will be divided into two parts.
This led to increased volatility in crypto currency, which, after registering a serious rebound in value on Monday, again declined. This time, however, the decline was far lower - 4.7% to $ 2,623.
According to Sheba Jafari, a Goldman Sachs technical analyst, the bitcoin may need a few more swings before its upward trend continues.
If the bitcoin is not able to break through its 13th June peak at a level of $ 3,000, it can be assumed that we are witnessing a triangle, the five waves on which to carry a bitcoin to the bottom of $ 1,786, according to Jaffari.
Up to now, Jaffari is quite constant in her analysis. At the beginning of July, the analyst predicted a depreciation of the bitcoin to levels below $ 1,857. A few weeks later, the expert warned we could see a test again at the $ 3,000 peak.
Since the beginning of the year, the bitcoin has risen by 166%.

New 23 year old bottom for VIX

US indices rose to new historical records and the volatility index fell to a new 23-year low.
The broadly-watched indicator reached the lowest value of 9.04 points, or a level not seen since December 1993.
The low VIX ratio is traditionally associated with bullish attitudes to the stock.
The average level of the index in the long run is about 20. Since the beginning of the year, however, the strong rise in US stocks and new records of indices sent the "fear" index to historical minimum.
On Monday, the index closed below 10 points for the eighth consecutive day, marking its longest-ever similar series.
Good economic performance, outstanding quarterly reports and the lack of more significant risk factors for the foreseeable future, are the main reasons for the low level of the indicator.
The sense of "security" is not limited to the stock markets alone. The one-month volatility of US government bonds is at 46.9963, or again the lowest in history.
Increasingly, investors are trying to take advantage of the low levels of the volatility index. There are massive purchases of call options on the VIX, or bets to increase the volatility of the index in the coming months.
The common theme for investors is to increase volatility after the summer.

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Why buy gold?

Gold is in a pretty good situation from a technical and fundamental point of view.
First of all, the noble metal recovered from its lowest values ​​since the beginning of this month, which is one of the worst for the metal historically.
Secondly, the price of gold is over its 200-day moving average, which is a relatively good signal for "golden bugs." They could position their stops to limit the loss, when the metal was down, below the specified value.
And thirdly, the 50-day average of gold is over 200-day one. Or the medium-term trend for the metal is extremely favorable.
There is a very simple gold trading system that gives excellent historical results. More precisely, over 12% of the average annual income if gold is bought when the 50-day average is over 200-day and goes out when the shorter term falls below the longer-term.
That is, there is now a signal to buy gold ...

And next, gold is very close to breaking the upper boundary of a descending long triangle. For such a breakthrough, as well as a confirmation signal, we can speak with a gold increase above $1,290. Such growth may be the first gold price rise to test its historic peak of over $1,900.
From a fundamental point of view, the prospects for gold are also good. There is an increased demand for physical gold in the first half of the year, including the second largest market - India.
In addition, there is an increasing expectation that the Fed's aggressive policy will slow down, which is reflected in the weakness of the dollar, to which gold is inversely proportional. Or, further preserving the weakness of the dollar, can ultimately unlock the positive potential of the metal.

Several counter-indications point to a major drop in US markets

Several counter-indicators give serious alarm signals to investors. And they can be a precursor to a serious downgrade for the markets.
First of all, private clients' cash has fallen to a record low as a percentage of their total assets, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
This means that investors feel more relaxed than ever to direct their funds to financial assets. Evidence of this is also the record low value of the VIX volatility index, which is at 23-year minimum and one-digit value.
In addition, institutional investors also hold the lowest cash value since the beginning of the bullish market eight years ago, according to Citigroup. The cash value is about one third of its highest value reached in 2016.
Next, index funds have recorded the largest capital inflow in two and a half years.
Last but not least, the new record values ​​of the indices should be noted. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices reached historic records, rising by 265 and 466%, respectively.
Meanwhile, the inflow to top-rated bonds continues to take full effect, with net capital inflows positive for the 30th consecutive week.
As BAML warns, there is a serious risk of melting the wings when flying too close to the sun.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch strategists comment in a letter to their customers that a big downturn in the market is likely to be an autumn, not a summer event.

Citi: Trump's impeachment risks have risen

For investors, President Trump's impeachment option seems unlikely. Citi Bank, however, warns that the likelihood of this has risen.
The comments from the banks became reality after Donald Trump Jr., tweeted emails detailing his greetings, after sources identified as related to the Russian government have disclosed compromising emails to President-elect candidate Hillary Clinton.
Markets have reacted negatively to this information, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average index losing 129 points of its value immediately before recovering all its losses.
Impeachment is unlikely given the complexity of this process and the lack of sufficient evidence of a "serious crime," according to Citi analysts.
The bank also commented that such a solution would require serious political pressure, and Republicans who control Congress at the moment would hardly allow this to happen.
On the other hand, and despite many unknowns in Trump-Russia relations, Citi analysts believe that the risk of impeachment for the US president is now higher than before, although this is still not a baseline scenario.

B. Gross: Danger of recession if banks are aggressive in their policies

Highly leveraged world economies, including the US, are at risk of recession, if central banks around the globe are approaching too aggressively in terms of their interest rate policy, believes the "bond king" Bill Gross.
In his latest letter to clients, Gross who is managing $2.1 billion in the Janus Henderson Global Unconstrained Bond Fund, said that the Fed and other central banks around the world should not rely on historical interest rates in a world of "extraordinary monetary policy."
"The attachment of Yellen, Bernanke, Draghi and Kuroda, as well as the other central bankers to the standard economic models, have destroyed the capitalism we have known. There is a danger of the occurrence of unknown consequences in the coming years," Gross said in his letter.
Gross refers to Yellen's predecessor Ben Bernanke, ECB chief Mario Draghi and the Japanese central bank Haruhiko Kouroda to make a warning.
According to Gross, over the past 25 years, three US recessions have matched flat yield curves between quarterly and 10-year US bonds.
"In view of the current 80 basis point spread, which is still far from the spread of 0 points, economists and some Fed officials do not see the danger of recession," Gross said.
Monetary policy, however, following Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in 2008, was "unconventional" and failed to stop buying bonds, despite warnings that a collapse in bonds is "around the corner," said Gross.
"While governments and the US can afford the extra cost of this policy, leverage companies and US investors can not," said Gross.