D. Gartman: The decline in US indices is not over

The collapse of US indices since the beginning of the week mobilizes an army of analysts and experts who are struggling to give an advices to investors.
Their opinions are quite opposite, some of them recommend investors to sell because we can see a further decline in the market, while the other part advises investors not to panic and not to close their positions.
The Dow blue chip index lost 1 841 points in two sessions, or nearly 7% of its value.
Some investors sell because they fear higher interest rates will affect the profits of US companies.
Others are dropping stocks because they expect further weakness in stock markets, or because they just have algorithms that sell when the majority sells, and so the decline is on the rise.
What are the predictions?
"The last few days are just the beginning of what may be a more serious bearish market," according to investor-veteran Dennis Gartman.
"We are now in the nine years of the bullish market, so will we see an adjustment of 12, 15, or 17% over the next few months?" - the expert continued.
Of course, investors should keep in mind that Gartman is traditionally a counter-investor. He has been warning of a correction for months, in an environment of growth and an increase in indexes to new and new records.
Of course there are experts who are in the opposite opinion. For example, according to Jeremy Siegel, one of the most prominent bulls in the market in recent years, which is also a warning of a potential correction, a 500-point drop in Dow could provide a good starting point for investors to buy stocks.

Shock sale for US indices - Dow loses more than 660 points

Yesterday was extremely heavy for investors on US stock markets. The blue-chip index Dow Jones Industrial Average lost the devilish 666 points in its largest decline since June 2016.
The broad S&P 500 Index fell 2.1 percent to 2 761.91 points, or its lowest level since January 10. The European Stoxx Europe 600 reduced its value by 1.4%, bringing its weekly loss to 3.1%.
The rise in interest rates on US bonds, owing to expectations of further interest rates in the world's largest economy, largely predetermined the decline.
Investors had no place to hide in the stock market, as the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500 index declined. The five-day fall in the broad index took 3.9% of its value, the first such drop from a record 404 days. Energy companies lost 4.1% after the results of companies in the sector continue to disappoint, the price of oil has fallen.
Sales of technology companies declined, with the Nasdaq 100 Index down 2.1%. For the week, the index fell by 3.7%, or the most since February of 2006. Even the record price appreciation of Amazon.com Inc. could not soften the indicator's cut. It's at its lowest levels since October.

US indices ended in new records

US indices reached new historical records, awaiting the introduction of tax reform next week.
The S&P 500 indice, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq 100 Stock Index closed at historic records after it became clear that the final tax reforms will be presented late Friday, and a vote for their approval is expected next week.
Russell 2000 Index's Index for Small Businesses saw the ninth consecutive growth for the last 10 sessions, precisely following the expected reforms.
Still, there are some uncertainties about the final version of the tax reforms and whether they will not undergo any changes.
The S&P 500 rose 0.9 percent to a level of 2,675.63 points or the highest closing level in its history. The Nasdaq 100 added 1.2% and Nasdaq Composite added 1.2% to its value.

Dow broke 23,000 points for the first time in history

The Dow Jones blue chip index has overcome the 23,000-point psychological limit for the first time in its history, driven by over 5% growth in UnitedHealth's stock. The shares of the insurance company reached a historic record after having recorded better-than-expected results for the past quarter.
On the index, however, weighted the weak performance of the industrial companies.
We do not see a market that is fascinated by the results, according to other analysts who are talking about a potential correction for the indices after their record highs.
US Treasury bonds rose after higher-than-expected growth in import prices, which raised inflationary expectations and led to a rise in the US dollar.
Additional support for the dollar has made it clear that Donald Trump would most likely prefer John Taylor as the next Fed leader after Janet Yelan's term of office.
The fall of 1.2% in General Electric's shares led to a decline in the industrial index, while the fall in Microsoft's and Intel's shares put a heavy burden on its technology components.
Seven of the 11 major sectors in the broad US index recorded declines driven by the industrial one.
Netflix shares lost 1.2% of their value after they recorded a new historic record the previous day.

J. Bogle: The market is fully appreciated

When the index fund father - Jack Bogle, talks, everyone listens. And Bogle has a lot to say to investors. In his last interview, he said that the market is fully appreciated.
Although two of the three major US indices fell last week, they all reached new record highs this month. And that makes Bogle, the founder of the Vanguard Group, to believe that the market is fairly valued at the moment.
According to his standarts, the financial ratings of companies are quite high, said Bogle in an interview with TheStreet. He added that his standards are high.
This year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average blue chip index passed 20,000 points and is currently trading close to 23,000 points. Technological Nasdaq rose by 22.42% since the beginning of the year, while the broad S&P 500 grew over eight consecutive days, registering its longest winning series since 2013.
It is good for investors to realize that the market is fully appreciated, and if they feel nervous about its condition, it may be better to close a portion of its portfolio, thinks Bogle.

Buffett: Dow at levels of 1,000,000 would not have been impossible

It's hard to argue with the genius investor Warren Buffett. When Buffett speaks and makes predictions, everyone is silent and listening. Unfortunately, for some of the predictions of the "Oracle of the Omaha," will sue our heirs.
Buffett recently said he believes it is not impossible for the Dow Jones blue chip index to reach 1,000,000 points after 100 years. By comparison, the indicator is currently at 22,000 points.
But how many of us will be alive to see if this will happen?
More importantly, however, Buffett's idea is how we should look at investing - long-term. Buffett has repeatedly promoted the long-term investment. In his opinion, the time for which a position in the portfolio is to be held is eternity. Buffett also advised investors to focus on the game, rather than just looking at the scoreboard.
Other Buffett's emblematic advice is to buy long-term equity index shares based on broad indices, which he believes are the best form of investment by individual investors.
And while Buffett's estimate of an index value of 1,000,000 points may sound pompous or unrealistic, it is far from being unachievable. In fact, to reach 1,000,000 points in 100 years, an annual return of only 4.7% is needed, which is far below the average for the past 50 years.
All, that has to happen, is that the indexes continue to grow at the pace of recent decades.
Buffett points out that the Dow blue chip index was only 81 points a century ago. It was created in the 1890's, by the 30 largest American companies.

The broken correlation between Dow and GE gives a bearish signal?

Bearish signal is given by the broken relationship between US indices and the direction of movement of General Electric, one of the components of the Dow Jones index. The industrial conglomerate is among the most closely watched by the analysts.
Technical analyst Tom McClellan pointed late on Wednesday that there is a distorted correlation between the direction of movement of the blue chip index and General Electric, which is traditionally considered a "bearish signal".
As can be seen from the graph below, the two assets usually move in the same direction. On 20 April, however, this interconnection was broken. Since then, GE shares have fallen by 17%, while the Dow index rises by 7%.

Citi: Trump's impeachment risks have risen

For investors, President Trump's impeachment option seems unlikely. Citi Bank, however, warns that the likelihood of this has risen.
The comments from the banks became reality after Donald Trump Jr., tweeted emails detailing his greetings, after sources identified as related to the Russian government have disclosed compromising emails to President-elect candidate Hillary Clinton.
Markets have reacted negatively to this information, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average index losing 129 points of its value immediately before recovering all its losses.
Impeachment is unlikely given the complexity of this process and the lack of sufficient evidence of a "serious crime," according to Citi analysts.
The bank also commented that such a solution would require serious political pressure, and Republicans who control Congress at the moment would hardly allow this to happen.
On the other hand, and despite many unknowns in Trump-Russia relations, Citi analysts believe that the risk of impeachment for the US president is now higher than before, although this is still not a baseline scenario.

Shares may collapse unless Yellen produces a miracle

The Fed has confirmed its position that it will begin to reduce its record $4 trillion balance sheet this year. This, however, did not bother particularly the stock markets, as the Dow blue chip index this week set a new record.
Are investors thinking that the Fed can withdraw liquidity from the market without affecting the companies? Obviously yes...
Otherwise, they would have to worry, not to buy shares "as the last one." Investor memory has proven not once and twice that it is short-lived and quickly forgets.
The traders apparently forgot what the asset redemption program is, which is the main reason for the Fed's record balance.
The question arises if the incentives triggered strong and parabolic growth for the indices, why not take the opposite - a reduction in the Fed's balance sheet could lead to a strong correction for US indices?

Trump: Everyone is 'getting rich' from the stock market except for me

President Donald Trump found time during his visit to Warsaw to comment on the recent US indexes.
In his speech, Trump noted that the recent rally in the stock markets makes "everyone else rich".
"And the United States is doing very well — very strong. We've taken off restrictions and people are really moving hard. So when I say that the stock market is at an all-time high, we've picked up in market value almost $4 trillion since November 8, which was the election. Four trillion dollars — it's a lot of money. Personally, I picked up nothing, but that's all right. Everyone else is getting rich. That's OK. I'm very happy," Trump said in his speech.
Trump, not once and twice, turns to historical record highs of US indices of previous weeks. According to him, the media do not pay enough attention to this to fact.
"Dow hit a new intraday all-time high! I wonder whether or not the Fake News Media will so report?", the US president said on Monday in his Twitter.
And while the Dow Jones industrial index was recording an intraday peak, it eventually ended at a record closing level of June 19. At the same time, the tecnological index Nasdaq is already around 200 points from its peak on June 8.
With regard to Trump, the administration of the president said that the new president had liquidated all his shares in June 2016.
According to Trump, USA have, at the moment, the lowest unemployment rate since 16 years.

Can the Dow Jones Index reach 100,000 by 2030?

When is the right time to invest in the Dow Jones blue chip index? The answer is right now, according to Ric Edelman, author of the book "The Truth About Your Future: The Money Guide You Need Now, Later, and Much Later".
The blue chip index is at a level of about 21,000 points. To increase to the psychological limit of 100,000 points, it will need an increase of 376%.
"If I'm wrong, then we're likely to see levels of 150,000 points for the index," Edelman said. "Most likely, we will see incredible profits in the US as well as globally in the future," said the finance expert.
Edelman's book aims to educate investors about how to save on retirement in a world of technological boom and expected life expectancy.
"If you think you will retire at the age of 65 and die at 85, forget it," Edelman added. "You'll probably live up to 110 or 120".
According to the author, "retirement will not exist in the 21st century. "This means you will have to work longer and you have to save much longer," the author said.
Edelman, is also turning to the technologies that help people in their investment decisions. Technology has substantially reduced the cost of investment, mainly through the use of index funds.

Stock markets react to the uncertainty of the position of Trump

For obvious reasons, on Friday corporate reports weren't published.
The American stock market continues to remain flat. The outlook is moderately negative, despite the presence of a graphic "flag" pattern on the weekly charts of the Dow Jones index. Technically, on the daily charts, the trend indicators are directed downward. The 9-day moving average shows clear bearish sentiment, the Bollinger bands are also oriented downwards. Thus, bears, most likely, will continue to push down the market. It's too early to talk about changing the medium-term trend, I think that this will happen after the breakdown and consolidation below 20,200 points, to which there are 4 more figures.

Dow Jones ran over the barrier of 20 000

On Wednesday, Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed and closed above the psychological level at 20,000 for the first time, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also went to record levels after the disclosure of upbeat corporate earnings of giants such as Boeing Co.
Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 0.8% to a price of 20,068.51 as Boeing Co. and Caterpillar Inc. contributed to solid gains.
S&P 500 recorded a growth of 0.8 percent to a record price of 2 298.37, eight of 11 major sectors finished with increases. Financial and industrial shares led the winners, while telecommunications and real estate were among the laggards.
Nasdaq Composite ended with a rise of 1% to a price of 5 656.34 points. Since the beginning of the year until now, Nasdaq surpasses other indexes, gaining 5.1 percent.

Growth in US stock markets after the minutes of the Federal Reserve

From the Fed protocol it became clear that the first increase in interest rates in a year was approved mostly because of market reaction after the presidential election and the expectations for an aggressive fiscal policy.
On Wednesday, the major indexes closed session overseas on green territory after minutes of the Fed was released. Although the name of the president-elect is not mentioned in the transcript, the impact of the vote on the markets and the economy seems to have been discussed.
Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by +0.30% closing at 19942.16. Broad S&P 500 rose by +0.57%, closing the session at 2270.75 points.
The technological Nasdaq added +0.88% and closed at 5477.07 points.

Optimism on the stock markets in Europe and the US the day before Fed's decision

European markets led by Italian shares ended with raise and overseas indexes are on their way to new highs in anticipation of the Fed's decision on interest rates in the US.
   
European shares rose to 11-month high on Tuesday as a major factor for this was the Italian shares and more accurate - UniCredit, which present a plan for restructuring and reform. European Stoxx 600 index added 1.06 percent and reached 357.50, making it the best price from January this year. This occurs after the beginning of the week the index lost 0.5%.
Italian banking sector added 5.83%, while shares of UniCredit achieved a growth of 15.92 percent, after it became clear that the bank would cut 6500 employees by 2019 and that they will start selling stocks and bonds. This was welcomed by the markets in anticipation of stabilizing the bank. The market capitalization of the bank is worth 15 billion euros.
In the UK, FTSE 100 climbed by 1.13% to 6968, which is the highest level for six weeks. The main reason for growth also was the banking sector, which managed to prevail over the loss of the energy sector.
Overseas investors are about to find out whether Dow Jones will overcome the psychological level of 20 000. On Tuesday the index added new 114 points and climbed to 19,911 after reaching a peak for the day of 19 953. SP500 added 15 points to 2272, as 9 of the 11 sectors finished at plus. The tech Nasdaq added 59 points to 5471.

Dow Jones Industrial Average for the first time rose above 19,000 points

Indexes in Europe recorded gains supported by growth in the oil price and positivism overseas. The price of oil reached a month high today amid expectations that OPEC will agree to limit yields. The market continues to be sensitive to comments from OPEC members, but expectations for an agreement are growing, despite opposition from Iraq and Iran.
German DAX 30 ended with an increase of +0.27% at the level of 10713 points. Here the gains came from stocks of Thyssenkrupp who have added +2.85%, followed by Deutsche Telekom with a daily increase of +1.67%.
Britain's FTSE 100 rose by +0.62%, closing the session at 6819 points.
France's CAC 40 also ended at green area adding +0.41% to close at 4548.35 points.
Dow Jones, S&P500 and Nasdaq ended the session on Tuesday at record high levels. For the first time since March 1998 indices ended for second consecutive trading session, both reaching a record at once.
The data showed that existing home sales rose in October by 2% annual growth to 5.6 million units, the highest level in nine years and a half.
S&P500 also reached a record, rising above 2200 points, leading sectors are real estate and energy, recording daily growth of +0.22%. It closed at 2202.94 points.
Technological Nasdaq Composite added +0.33%, closing the day trading at a level of 5386.35 points.