The consequences of yesterday's publication of the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Committee for open market operations differed slightly from the official statement of the FOMC at a meeting in early May. Then the Fed spoke of "symmetry" to describe the goal of inflation. This was probably regarded as an unwillingness to intimidate the market, because it could calculate that the Fed will react too energetically to further inflation growth, because the inflation target of 2.0% is already looming on the horizon.
This time (in any case, judging by the reaction of profitability in the US and the increase in expectations about the Fed's rate hikes), the tone of the protocol was more "dovish", since the Fed apparently agrees to "suffer" a high inflation rate of 2% "long" time, before raising rates further.
The conclusion is that the US central bank seems to be strongly inclined to not cut the recovery period and make sure that inflation remains within the target range.
The very sharp reaction of the US yield in the form of its decline was just as muffled, but this does not apply to the pair USD/JPY, which experienced a new and strong sell-off wave at night, which caused the pair to fall to new local lows and to a level below 110.00. Judging by the dynamics, the level of 110.00 for the pair USD/JPY is too much, and the currency pair could fully rise to high levels if the yield in the USA was also high now.
Thursday, 24 May 2018
Wednesday, 23 May 2018
Gold may strengthening
Quotes of gold traded quite actively in the course of trading on Tuesday, but at the end of the day almost did not change compared to the opening price of the session at around 1292 dollars per troy ounce.
For the gold market, it is very important that the price seems to be fixed below the support level of $1,300 per ounce. A record increase in the yield of US bonds over the past seven years and the strengthening of the dollar index to a five-month high continue to exert strong pressure on gold quotes. In addition, there are a strong US stock market, as well as expectations for further tightening of monetary policy in the US. Some investors expect three more interest rate hikes this year. The first of these should take place at the next Fed meeting in June, and according to some forecasts, the probability of this event is almost 100%.
Another factor testifying to the strengthening of gold remains a possible truce between China and the United States regarding possible trade wars. However, the geopolitical component still remains a factor of gold support, thanks to the possible introduction of US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela, after Nicolas Maduro was elected for a president for another term.
For the gold market, it is very important that the price seems to be fixed below the support level of $1,300 per ounce. A record increase in the yield of US bonds over the past seven years and the strengthening of the dollar index to a five-month high continue to exert strong pressure on gold quotes. In addition, there are a strong US stock market, as well as expectations for further tightening of monetary policy in the US. Some investors expect three more interest rate hikes this year. The first of these should take place at the next Fed meeting in June, and according to some forecasts, the probability of this event is almost 100%.
Another factor testifying to the strengthening of gold remains a possible truce between China and the United States regarding possible trade wars. However, the geopolitical component still remains a factor of gold support, thanks to the possible introduction of US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela, after Nicolas Maduro was elected for a president for another term.
Wednesday, 16 May 2018
John Paulson and Ray Dalio believe in gold
Billionaire investor and hedge fund manager John Paulson, as well as Ray Dalio, founder of the world's largest hedge fund, remain faithful to gold. Even in the light of the yesterday's decline in the noble metal and the expectations for an accelerated rise in interest rates by the Fed.
As of March 31, the New York based Paulson Fund - Paulson & Co. has had 4.32 million shares in the largest stock-exchange SPDR Gold Shares. This, compared with 4.36 million shares of the fund in December.
Meanwhile, the Bridgewater Associates Fund also retains its stake in SPDR and iShares Gold Trust, the second largest gold-based index fund.
Gold appreciated by 1.7% in the first three months of this year, after the dollar fell for the fifth consecutive quarter. This helps the metals withstand the downward pressure on the Fed's interest rate hike.
In March, Paulson's gold fund, as well as its other funds, began to return capital to investors after their assets were down $9 billion from $38 billion in 2011.
Otherwise yesterday, gold marked a significant decline, returning below the psychological limit of $1,300 per ounce. Early this morning, the spot price of gold is at levels of about $1,294 per ounce.
As of March 31, the New York based Paulson Fund - Paulson & Co. has had 4.32 million shares in the largest stock-exchange SPDR Gold Shares. This, compared with 4.36 million shares of the fund in December.
Meanwhile, the Bridgewater Associates Fund also retains its stake in SPDR and iShares Gold Trust, the second largest gold-based index fund.
Gold appreciated by 1.7% in the first three months of this year, after the dollar fell for the fifth consecutive quarter. This helps the metals withstand the downward pressure on the Fed's interest rate hike.
In March, Paulson's gold fund, as well as its other funds, began to return capital to investors after their assets were down $9 billion from $38 billion in 2011.
Otherwise yesterday, gold marked a significant decline, returning below the psychological limit of $1,300 per ounce. Early this morning, the spot price of gold is at levels of about $1,294 per ounce.
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Tuesday, 15 May 2018
US indices started correction down
Trading on US stock exchanges began with a decline in major indices on Tuesday, which recently lost 0.6-0.8%. Investors fixed their profit after several days of growth, as well as against the background of the excess of the yield of 10-year treasury bonds by 3%. Statistics at the same time showed a slowdown in growth in retail sales in April from 0.8% to 0.3%, as expected. The increase in the indicator for March was revised from 0.6%. Production reserves in March did not change (it was expected + 0.1%).
The S & P500 index rebounded down from the resistance of 2750 points, which was raised the day before. If the indicator does not manage to return to 2720 points at the end of the day, the probability of accelerating the fall in the Bollinger average area of the daily chart (2680 points) will increase.
European index EuroStoxx 50 by the end of the day fell by less than 0.1%.
The S & P500 index rebounded down from the resistance of 2750 points, which was raised the day before. If the indicator does not manage to return to 2720 points at the end of the day, the probability of accelerating the fall in the Bollinger average area of the daily chart (2680 points) will increase.
European index EuroStoxx 50 by the end of the day fell by less than 0.1%.
Monday, 14 May 2018
Misalignment of raw materials, despite the weaker dollar
Despite the weaker dollar, commodities denominated in the US currency ended last week in a mixed fashion as investors narrowed their positions in gold and oil on the last day of the week.
Copper finished slightly on Friday in positive territory due to the weakness of the US dollar. A sharp drop in the price of aluminum has limited the growth of copper.
July's copper futures ended at 3.1115, or woth an increase of 0.05%. The price was supported in the past week by declining copper stocks, which, according to technical analysts, could take the price to 3.1215.
Gold closed slightly down on Friday, but still managed to record its first weekly increase of four weeks. The metal market was backed last week by the dollar depreciation and lower interest rates on US government bonds.
Among the investors, there is speculation that the Fed will not be as aggressive in its policy of raising interest rates.
Gold futures with delivery in June lost $1.6, or 0.12% to $1 320.7 per ounce.
The announcement of a meeting between the United States and North Korea, which will take place in Singapore, also leads to a reduction in geopolitical tensions and, accordingly, weighs on the price of gold.
Meanwhile, the price of oil has fallen from its highest levels for the past three and a half years, but continues to trade relatively close to them. US crude oil fell 0.63 cents, or 0.9%, while brent fell by 0.35 cents, or 0.45%.
Copper finished slightly on Friday in positive territory due to the weakness of the US dollar. A sharp drop in the price of aluminum has limited the growth of copper.
July's copper futures ended at 3.1115, or woth an increase of 0.05%. The price was supported in the past week by declining copper stocks, which, according to technical analysts, could take the price to 3.1215.
Gold closed slightly down on Friday, but still managed to record its first weekly increase of four weeks. The metal market was backed last week by the dollar depreciation and lower interest rates on US government bonds.
Among the investors, there is speculation that the Fed will not be as aggressive in its policy of raising interest rates.
Gold futures with delivery in June lost $1.6, or 0.12% to $1 320.7 per ounce.
The announcement of a meeting between the United States and North Korea, which will take place in Singapore, also leads to a reduction in geopolitical tensions and, accordingly, weighs on the price of gold.
Meanwhile, the price of oil has fallen from its highest levels for the past three and a half years, but continues to trade relatively close to them. US crude oil fell 0.63 cents, or 0.9%, while brent fell by 0.35 cents, or 0.45%.
A drastic decline of altcoins on Friday
Heavy week for the bitcoin and the other cryptocurrencies. The heaviest, however, was the last day of last week for the altcoins.
Bitcoin Gold, for example, lost 15% of its value, pointing to the psychological limit of $50. Many analysts believe that the depreciation of the cryptocurrency may continue to the next psychological level of 40 dollars per coin.
The latter level has proved to be a key level of support, and started the last rally.
The dash also overcome the psychological support level of $400 on Friday, and the cryptocurrency seems to have fallen further down to 350 dollars. Experts believe that the $420 level is a serious resistance and could limit the price of the digital coin.
The monero also experienced severe times on Friday, moving below the $200 psychological limit.
Otherwise, the ripple declined substantially, falling over the past week by over 20% and closing the week at 0.69 cents. Litecoin also fell seriously - to a level of 139 dollars per coin on the last day of the week.
The second largest cryptocurrency - the ethereum, ended at a level of 690 dollars per coin.
Otherwise, the bitcoin led the fall of the cryptocurrencies after dropping below the $9,000 psychological limit, where it traded for most of last week. On Friday, the bitcoin ended at $8,500 for a coin.
Bitcoin Gold, for example, lost 15% of its value, pointing to the psychological limit of $50. Many analysts believe that the depreciation of the cryptocurrency may continue to the next psychological level of 40 dollars per coin.
The latter level has proved to be a key level of support, and started the last rally.
The dash also overcome the psychological support level of $400 on Friday, and the cryptocurrency seems to have fallen further down to 350 dollars. Experts believe that the $420 level is a serious resistance and could limit the price of the digital coin.
The monero also experienced severe times on Friday, moving below the $200 psychological limit.
Otherwise, the ripple declined substantially, falling over the past week by over 20% and closing the week at 0.69 cents. Litecoin also fell seriously - to a level of 139 dollars per coin on the last day of the week.
The second largest cryptocurrency - the ethereum, ended at a level of 690 dollars per coin.
Otherwise, the bitcoin led the fall of the cryptocurrencies after dropping below the $9,000 psychological limit, where it traded for most of last week. On Friday, the bitcoin ended at $8,500 for a coin.
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