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Wednesday, 7 September 2016

The new "stone in the garden" of the US economy

US economic data continues to disappoint market participants. Yesterday was published the index of activity in the service sector ISM in August. Its value greatly disappointed market participants - figure dropped to a mark of 51.4 from 55.0 in July. This was the worst result for the last 6 years.
US dollar responsed to the data with weakness on all fronts. The EUR/USD in a wave of purchases broke through psychological barrier near 1.1200 and it is now in the 1.1250-60 area, intending to continue to grow.
In the past few days, there was enough evidence, that the US economy remains far from being in the state, which would allow to successfully survive the increase in Fed rates. The labor market, according to the Friday's NFP, is growing with uneven pace, inflationary pressures are not observed, and economic activity is reduced. This may force the US Federal Reserve to postpone the resumption of the cycle of rate hikes until next year.
Any new signs of recession in the US economy would immediately lead to a selling USD, so the major currency pairs will be subject to high volatility.

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