The new "stone in the garden" of the US economy

US economic data continues to disappoint market participants. Yesterday was published the index of activity in the service sector ISM in August. Its value greatly disappointed market participants - figure dropped to a mark of 51.4 from 55.0 in July. This was the worst result for the last 6 years.
US dollar responsed to the data with weakness on all fronts. The EUR/USD in a wave of purchases broke through psychological barrier near 1.1200 and it is now in the 1.1250-60 area, intending to continue to grow.
In the past few days, there was enough evidence, that the US economy remains far from being in the state, which would allow to successfully survive the increase in Fed rates. The labor market, according to the Friday's NFP, is growing with uneven pace, inflationary pressures are not observed, and economic activity is reduced. This may force the US Federal Reserve to postpone the resumption of the cycle of rate hikes until next year.
Any new signs of recession in the US economy would immediately lead to a selling USD, so the major currency pairs will be subject to high volatility.

Fed's rates raising back on the agenda

In response to the unexpectedly strong data on US labor market, dollar strengthened against most of its competitors. The release can be called truly impressive. In July, the employment rate for payrolls, excluding the agricultural sector, increased by 255 thousand, against the expected growth by 180 thousand. At the same time the previous two indicators were revised upward, bringing the average for the last three months amounted to an impressive 190 thousand.
No less noteworthy was the component of the average hourly and weekly earnings, which J. Yellen gives great importance. The indicator rose to 2.7% y/y, reaching a maximum of more than one year level. The increase in earnings gives hope for acceleration of inflation in the country, which is the second reference point for the Fed in determining the course of monetary policy. Thus, Friday's statistics unit immediately gives two arguments in favor of the fact that this year the regulator can still decide to raise borrowing costs.
As expected, the pair EUR/USD, which was trading near 1.1150, has responded to the report, falling under the mark of 1.11. Reaching the 8-day low at 1.1050, the euro has lost more than one figure. To improve the technical picture EUR/USD is now required to return above the mark of 1.11.

The Bank of England is preparing for the worst

During the last meeting of the Bank of England, the regulator did not disappoint those who counted on the generous incentives. The regulator has reduced the expected rate by 0.25%, while enhancing the program of buying assets to 375 billion up to 435 billion pounds. Surprisingly, it was the decision to buy not only the state, but also corporate bonds. The program will be applied within 6 and 18 months, respectively.
GBP/USD naturally weakened in response to the verdict of the monetary authorities, having lost the level of 1.32. The pair found support on the way to the level of 1.31, and is still under pressure.
In the aspect of longer-term prospects for the British currency, we should pay attention to the attitude of the Central Bank.
Firstly, the Central Bank sharply lowered its economic growth forecast for 2017 to 0.8%, while in May, GDP was expected at 2.3%. Such a grim assessment, combined with the increasing talk about a technical recession, create unfavorable conditions for the pound. Secondly, M. Carney made it clear that he is ready to further easing of policy in the future. It raises the issue of divergence rates of monetary policy of the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve. And although the issue of the next rate hike in the United States is still shrouded in fog, it is important to remember that in the United States we are talking about the normalization of monetary policy, but the British regulator after today's "warm-up" paves the way for further action in this direction.
The closest factor that may affect the expectations of the Fed's rates will manifest itself tomorrow and will have an impact on the dynamics of the GBP/USD and the dollar as a whole. Strong key report on the US labor market will strengthen the position of the US currency across the board. In this scenario, the pressure on the pound will continue and may worsen. Otherwise, we expect a restoration of the pair above the level of 1.32.