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Wednesday, 2 May 2018

One simple reason explains the narrow range of US indices

US stocks have been "stuck" in a narrow range in recent weeks, and the key reason behind this is very simple - there is no leader to follow.
This happens relatively rarely in the stock - lacking unambiguous leaders to keep the whole market up. Compared to the past year when these were technological shares, this year's situation is completely different.
Markets experience relatively similar periods of lack of leadership, said Michael Wilson, market strategist at Morgan Stanley.
Since the beginning of the year, the S&P 500 has declined by 0.21%, while the blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.6%. At the same time, the Nasdaq technology is up 2.5%.
The sectors are mainly traded downward, with only three of the 11 major sectors on the positive territory for the year.
The best-performing sector is the consumer cycle, adding 5.5% to its value this year. This, however, is predetermined by the strong performance of several names. For example, Amazon.com, which accounts for around 20% of the sector, has increased its market capitalization by nearly 34% this year.
Shares of Netflix Inc. - the fifth largest component in the sector, rose by more than 63% since the beginning of the year. Other names, like Home Depot HD and Walt Disney, have been in negative territory since the beginning of the year.
For the market as a whole, the lack of a sector to lead growth is also a "worrying signal" by itself.
Analysts comment that such periods occur in times of transition from a growing market to a market that has found its peak or is about to find it. The situation is further compounded by interest rates on 10-year US bonds, which rose by more than 3%, and by expectations of main interest rates hike.
There are some signs that the energy sector may become a market leader. It has grown by 9.5% since the beginning of the month, which is the best performance among the 11 major sectors of the broad US index.



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