OPEC prepares markets for changing quotas

At the auction on Thursday Brent crude oil fell by more than 1% after once again did not dare to challenge the level of 80. In general, quotes remain high and continue to feed by the subject of sanctions, but the market is beginning to form fears of another kind that can put the end of the recent rally.
Before the semi-annual OPEC + summit in Vienna, a little less than a month remains, and exporters need to prepare the markets in advance for possible scenarios, so as not to shock investors and avoid sharp fluctuations in prices. It seems that this preparation is just beginning. By the way, according to rumors, all key producers of the Middle East support the weakening of quotas.
As this development, we can see a way out of long positions on Brent in a wave of profit-taking at still attractive levels for sale. Moreover, the downside risks will increase, if, for example, there are fears that Iran will be able to compensate losses from US sanctions at the expense of deliveries to the EU.
From a technical point of view, the probability of a downward breakout is now higher than the chance of a return above 80. Accordingly, the level 78 may be at risk, the loss of which will signal a further elimination of the longs. The catalyst for this movement may be the current report of Baker Hughes, if it indicates the resumption of the growth in the number of drilling in the US.