EUR/USD after the ECB meeting

The ECB meeting is already in the history. In general, it can be summed up that it did not produce anything more serious like news. The euro wondered where it would go against the dollar, but eventually chose to go down, falling below 1.1650. Earlier in the day, the single currency traded at levels of about 1.1700 after the good development from Trump and Juncker meeting.
Overall, the ECB decided to keep its base rate unchanged. Draghi also confirmed that 30 billion stimulus would gradually be reduced to reach zero by December 2018.
At the press conference, Draghi once again confirmed the plans of the financial institution to maintain the current interest rate by the summer of next year to ensure continued steady convergence of inflation over the medium term to levels near two percent.
Of course, the future decisions of ECB will continue to be predetermined by the outgoing macrodata. This was accepted by market participants as a signal that if the trade war resulted in a more serious slowdown in economic growth and inflation, the central bank could be much less aggressive about its interest rates.
In June, the ECB announced its plans to end its massive bond purchase program in December, hinting that interest rates are likely to remain at the current low levels until at least the summer of 2019. The ECB reaffirmed that any possible change to the current plan would depend on the current economic data.
According to technical analysts, the euro may try to retest the psychological limit of 1.1500 against the dollar, and the test will determine the further movement of the currency pair. Decline below this limit can be seen as a very negative signal and lead to further losses for the single currency towards 1.13-1.12. Otherwise, a failed breakthrough, as well as returning at trading levels above 1.1700, will require conditions to boost the euro's appreciation.

New ESMA regulations for forex traders

The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) has published a new regulations for forex brokers, CFDs and binary options providers. The document was adjusted to add a section explaining the position of the mega-regulator in the issue of certification and provision of cross-border financial services to retail customers.
In relation to trading CFD contracts in Europe, the Authority changes the leverage in the range from 1:30 to 1:5, depending on the volatility of the underlying asset (the so-called historical price behavior). Also, the document sets standards for forced close out of the position (margin close out). That is, the stop out - level (in percent), when the provider is forced to close the client's position, will be the same for all traders with this asset.
Moreover, new measures of protection against negative balance are introduced. According to the regulator, this will provide a more guaranteed limit of possible losses to retail customers.
In addition, the European regulator is making crypto-currency instruments (CFD contracts) within the limits of these restrictions. Also, the ESMA regulator completely prohibits the trade in binary options in Europe.
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Gold, silver and platinum with new bottoms (2)

The Bloomberg Commodity Index, which tracks the performance of commodities, declined 10% from its nearly three-year high in May, and its sell-offs began to shift to other assets.
This is clear from the performance of the mining companies, the worst performing sector this month, as part of the European Stoxx Europe 600 Index. This is not a big surprise, given the poor performance of the metals.
The weakness of the raw materials was also transferred to the currencies of the raw-producing nations. Almost all 22 key commodities in the Bloomberg Commodity Index fell from their peak in May, with the exception of live cattle, cotton and orange juice. Copper, which is often used as a barometer for the state of the world economy, fell by as much as 18% over the period.
The burning trade war and the uncertainty about Chinese demand for raw materials is one of the main reasons for the depreciation of raw materials. While there is uncertainty about China, raw materials will continue to be under pressure, according to market observers.

Trump does not like the Fed's policy

When Donald Trump does not like something, he does not bother to share it. Even if this can have consequences on financial markets. Last week, the US president criticized the Fed's policy.
According to the president, every time when Us economy goes up, FED wants to raise rates. And Trump's really not happy about this.
And Trump's comments have led to a certain decline in the dollar against other major currencies on Thursday.
The yuan has been distinguished from the depreciation of the dollar. The Chinese currency has fallen to over one year's bottom.
Investors continue to worry about the decline of the yuan against the US dollar. The Chinese currency reached 6.8106 yuan per dollar, with the psychological limit of 6.8 being exceeded for the first time in more than a year.
China Central Bank announced a rate of 6.7671 yuan before opening the market on Friday, which was the lowest level in a year.
According to analysts, Trump's remarks can trigger investors who think buying dollars to postpone their deals.
Trump's comment on Thursday is not the first in which the president expresses dissatisfaction with the strong dollar. Earlier, in interview with Wall Street Journal Trump had said even more openly that the dollar was "too strong".

Gold, silver and platinum with new bottoms (1)

What happens to raw materials should seriously stress investors on global stock markets. Because they have entered a correction phase and traditionally it is believed that the direction of commodity price movements points to the situation in the growth of the world economy.
Copper, which has often predicted short-term GDP growth with very high precision, saw a decline of more than 18% from its peak in May. In the light of the appreciation of the US dollar, copper fell below $6,000 (18% of its peak in May), and US crude oil tested $68 a barrel.
Gold fell below $1,202, and platinum rested near a 14-year low at levels below $800 per ounce. Silver, another industrial noble metal, is about to test the psychological limit of $15 per ounce.

Decline for US indices

US indices ended last week on a negative territory, dragging the Asian indexes on their last trading day for the week. The broad US S&P 500 declined by 0.4%, while the Dow Jones blue chip index lost 134.79 points, or 0.53%. Technological Nasdaq was the least loss - 0.37%.
Otherwise, Japan's Nikkei 225 lost 0.66% of its value, and the South Korean crude fell 0.2%. The Hong Kong Main Index recorded a loss of 0.5% several hours before closing the market.
Investors continue to worry about the decline of the yuan against the US dollar. The Chinese currency reached 6.8106 yuan per dollar, with the psychological limit of 6.8 being exceeded for the first time in more than a year.

A Simple Gold Trading System (3)

What does gold look like today and what signal does it give, based on trading system requirements?

As we can see from the chart above, gold is currently trading below its 10-month moving average. That is, the trend for precious metal can be predetermined as a downward trend, and investors who want to buy gold are well worth waiting for the metal to return above that average. And this is most likely to happen when gold rises above the psychological limit of $1,300 per ounce.
In other words, be patient and wait for a confirmation that the downward trend in gold is exhausted.

A Simple Gold Trading System (2)

What was the result of this system?

Backtests of the system since 1971 show that it has earned investors an income of 16.8% a year when gold was bought (its price was above its 10-month moving average) and income of 2.9% when it was sold (the price was below the 10-month moving average).
For comparison, following the simple buy-and-go strategy for gold for the period under review has yielded an average annual return for investors of 8%.
In short, investors were definitely supposed to be in gold when they had a "purchases" signal.
Summarized, the system results look like this:
Between 2001 and 2012, the system has given frequent "buy" signals.
Between 2012 and 2015 dominated "sell" signals.
In 2016, the system gave signals for purchases in the first half of the year and a signal for sale from mid-October.

A Simple Gold Trading System (1)

The simple things are the ones you have to stick to when trading in the financial markets - this is advice given to investors by not one and two great investors, including the genius Warren Buffett.
In this line of thought, I will now introduce you a simple gold trading strategy that you can use as a second opinion when investing in the noble metal.
In fact, at this moment of uncertainty, more and more investors are looking at gold. Relations between the US and China are strained, and the official start of the "trade war" was also given in the beginning of the month.

What is the strategy?

The strategy is represented by experts from the Daily Wealth and includes long positions in gold if its price is over its 10-month moving average and shortening if the price of gold is below it. It just sounds simple, right? Yes... So we have met the requirement for simplicity.

Oil with dramatic loss yesterday

The oil price was exceptionally strong yesterday. The Brent lost $3.49 of its value, or 4.6%, to finish the first day of the week at $71.48 a barrel with delivery in September. This was the lowest closing date since April last year.
US crude oil fell by 2.95 dollars, or about 4.2% to 68.06 dollars a barrel. Its lowest closing level since 21 June.
The Trump administration, in addition to conducting active political talks with Russia and Saudi Arabia to boost production, plans to resort to US strategic reserves to stem the fall in oil prices.
The average selling price of oil rose 16% since the beginning of the year, resulting in serious dissatisfaction with Trump's policy.
The sanctions imposed by the US on Iran are largely among the main reasons for the rise in oil prices in international markets.
According to the International Energy Agency, US state producers are expected to raise their daily production by 143,000 barrels in August, compared to a year earlier.

Asian indices with the first weekly increase for five weeks

Asian indexes on Friday scored their first weekly boost in five weeks after China refrained from declaring details about their response to US tariff hikes. Shares in Japan, Hong Kong and South Korea rose on the last day of the week, while those in China and Australia declined.
Beijing's officials seem to mitigate against President Trump's tariffs as a result of the slowdown in the economy, the fall in prices of shares on stock markets and the weakness of the currency.
China's exports for June exceeded analysts' average expectations, while imports slowed far more than expected, export data said.
Investors and analysts are turning their eyes on the upcoming quarterly reports, which can largely determine the future direction of stock markets around the world.

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US indices ended yesterday on green territory

Yesterday, the US indices ended in positive territory, with the biggest gain of 0.5% being the Dow Jones blue chip index. The broad S&P 500 added 0.4% to its value. With least gains ended the technological Nasdaq, adding only 3 points to its value. Otherwise, the index following the performance of the smaller companies - Russell 2000, ended in a negative territory.
Oil lost $0.5 of its value, and noble metals returned almost everything earned within the day. Earlier this morning gold is traded at levels of $1,250 per ounce and silver is below the psychological limit of $16.00 per ounce. Now is the question whether we will see a test of the bottom at $15.60 an ounce and will it remain in force?

The pound is stabilizing

The British currency rebounded on the second day of the week, following fears about the withdrawal of two ministers yesterday. The British pound rose to 1.3270 against the dollar, after registering yesterday the lowest value of 1.3180 against the US currency.
After two ministers of May's cabinet resigned - first Brexit negotiator David Davis and then Foreign Minister Boris Johnson, there were given signals for a softer Brexit. And that's good news, according to market observers.
Several hours after Davis's resignation, the British Prime Minister appointed Dominique Raab, who was in charge of the London-Brussels talks on the UK's exit from the EU.
Conservative lawmakers announced that May is likely to be sure of her leadership despite two resignations, and that directly helped the British pound recover.

More new jobs and higher unemployment in the United States

The newly created jobs in the United States surprised the analysts happily, rising to 213,000 in the past month, or more than the average expectations of 200,000 new jobs.
What disappointed investors, however, was the unemployment figures. Instead of keeping at 3.8%, as expected, unemployment rose to 4%.
The other disappointing figures in the report were those of raising average hourly wages. The index grew by 0.2% on a monthly basis and 2.7% on an annual basis in June, against expectations of an increase of 0.3 and 2.8%, respectively.
All this has made investors take a step backwards in terms of forecasts of four US interest rates hikes this year after we've seen two. In other words, they can only expect another increase in interest rates this year.
The dollar has fallen sharply against other major currencies. The euro rose to 1.1750 levels after trading at levels of about 1.1700 previously.

The European indices ended with growth

The European Stock Exchange session ended in positive territory despite the start of the US-China trade war late last week.
Employment data in the US also had an impact on European indexes on the first day of the new week. The European Stoxx 600 reported the highest rise after the UK FTSE 100 Main Index.
The political turbulence in the UK, in connection with the resignations of two negotiators, was also accepted by market participants as good news. Expectations for a reversal in the negotiations with the EU and a "soft break" have risen after the two resignations.
French carmaker Renault-Nissan came to the bottom because of concerns over his Nissan partner company, which has admitted to falsifying exhaust emissions and fuel economy in the Japanese automotive market.

Gold is pushed up from its bottom

At the beginning of the week, platinum fell momentarily below the psychological limit of $800 per ounce. But there was a fast return, and early this morning, the "white metal" was trading at 840 dollars per ounce.
Gold also recovered substantially from its decline on Monday when it reached the lowest value of $1 236 per ounce. Earlier today, precious metal was traded at levels of $1 254 per ounce.
The big loser is silver, although the metal was also the one that dropped at least during the precious metal fall at the beginning of the week.
Silver has returned at levels of trade above the psychological limit of 16 dollars per ounce, but faces difficulties for further growth. Serious resistance is at the level of $16.10 per ounce.
Down below, silver should not fall below the bottom of November last year at $15.60 an ounce. If this happens, the prospects for the appreciation of the metal will fall seriously. On the other hand, witnessing the acceleration of silver growth can only be achieved with a sustained return of more than 16.20 dollars per ounce.

Oil is headed to $80 a barrel?

Oil continued to rise to $75, after data on US crude oil stocks and continuing concerns about supply shortages.
Despite assurances that Saudi Arabia will raise its production, in response to President Trump's request and his administration, there was a scandal. The media severely condemned Trump's tweets, saing they were offensive to Saudi Arabia.
US crude oil rose 1%, with a premium between futures contracts shipped month by month, expanding heavily. This indicates the market participants' expectations for a potential further rise in the price of "black gold."
In addition, the decline of the dollar against other major currencies has also fueled the slight rise in oil prices.
Oil prices are rising despite OPEC countries' assurances that they will adhere to a 1 million barrel per day production agreement.
The rise in the cost of raw materials in such environments has led a number of market observers to believe that OPEC will not be able to cope with the supply of such a quantity of oil due to lack of sufficient spare capacity.
And this may trigger further rising of raw material to the next key $80 per barrel.

Platinum under $800

The price of platinum has collapsed. It fell below $800 per ounce, marking a record low in its history. The noble metal started with its decline a week ago but only yesterday lost more than 5% of its value.
The prices of other precious metals also fell. Gold fell below the support level of $1,250 and fell to $1,238 per ounce.
Silver is trading early this morning at $15.78, or its lowest value since November last year.
The platinum and gold price ratio is at a record low of 0.646.
The sharp decline in platinum prices is largely determined by fears that US duties on aluminum and steel will reduce demand for platinum.
The strong dollar and the decline in demand for diesel cars, whose platinum catalysts are used, are other reasons for the decline in platinum prices.
There are also some concerns about manipulating the price of platinum. The fall of the metal below $811, which is a bottom since 2004, has increased panic sales of investors. Many stop losses were taken, which further prompted the supply of precious metal.
Whether levels of less than $800 would not have been a good time to buy, we're going to see very soon.

Emerging market currencies are sharply declining

Trump's latest measures to deepen protectionism have triggered further sell-offs in emerging markets.
The currencies and indices of emerging markets are turning to their biggest losses since September 2015. The Hungarian forint has fallen to a historic bottom after the country's central bank has confirmed its not particularly aggressive monetary policy.
Yuan fell on Thursday for the tenth consecutive day against the dollar, which was his longest series of declines since March of 2014.
A cheap yuan is part of China's policy to resist US blows in the ever-worsening trade war between the two super-economic powers.
Chinese yuan is cheaper also because the central bank of China refrains from raising interest rates after the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points.

The silver broke $16 - the next stop is 15.50

Traditional economic theories say that gold and other precious metals should rise in times of geopolitical uncertainty. In an environment of constant mention of the word "trade war" between the US and China, what better geopolitical instability than this?
Still, noble metals can not find their way up and continue with their loss.
Gold broke the key support level of $1,250 and traded at $1,248 earlier this morning. Subsequent levels of support for the yellow metal are at levels of about $1,230 per ounce.
More worrying is the silver situation, where there was a break of the psychological limit of $16 per ounce. This level has already stopped the downward depreciation of the metal several times, and now the situation is quite worrying.
It seems almost certain that silver will test its key level of support at $15.50 per ounce.