Oil between $50 and $75 suits everyone

Over the past four days, US crude oil fell nearly 10 percent of the cyclical peak $73 a barrel, reaching yesterday low at $65. This poses the question - has the downward correction of the raw material been exhausted and can it start rising again?
The sharp decline in oil became a reality as a result of the data that Saudi Arabia and Russia are considering increasing production. Both parties signaled some increase in their production.
It is the trade between Russia and OPEC in the past year to curb production, triggering a strong rise in raw material prices.
Experts, however, comment that the potential resistance of some OPEC members against Saudi Arabia and Russia's decision to boost production could lead to a certain return in the price of oil.
After the peak of 115 dollars in 2011, oil was traded in a range between 115 and 75 dollars for 30 months. Such developments would mean oil price rate in the range of between $70 and $50 over the next few years. And that would perfectly suit Russia and Saudi Arabia, according to market observers.
Any oil levels above this range are already leading to some problems for consumers related to inflation, as well as an upsurge in US oil production, which is becoming profitable.
So, it seems very likely that the price of oil will be kept in a relatively narrow range over the coming years.
There are, of course, some analysts who believe that the price of oil will continue to rise and may go beyond that limit. Some of them are experts from Goldman Sachs, according to which there is an essential background for growth in the price of oil.

Italian banks have led the downturn in Europe

Italian banks have led the fall of European financial companies downwards as a result of growing fears of new elections in the country that could boost the position of major populist parties in the country.
The decline was driven by the shares of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, the volatile government-backed bank whose shares lost 7.8% of its value.
Seven of the eight worst-performing stocks in the Bloomberg Europe Banks Index were at European banks. The shares of the largest Italian bank - UniCredit SpA, lost nearly 5% of its value.
Meanwhile, the decline in Italian banking stocks has triggered the deletion of the growth of FTSE MIB Italian index since the beginning of the year.
New political choices, coupled with growing consensus opinions among populists, seriously frighten investors, according Gabriela Pinosa, head of Go-spa Consulting, a Milan-based consulting company quoted by Bloombaerg.
The victory of Euro-skeptics may lead to a gradual withdrawal of Italy from the eurozone and a potential debt write-off. And this can be extremely negative for the euro.
Interest rates on 10-year Italian bonds rose yesterday to over 2.6%, which was their highest level in nearly four years.
The fall in Italian bond prices has occurred after populist leader Mateo Salvini said it does not make much sense for Italy to remain within the EU unless the Union rewrote its rules.
The political situation seems extremely unfavorable for Italian bonds and debt holders because of the future unpredictability of vague Italian leaders.

Oil loses more than $4 on Friday, continues to go down

The price of oil continued with its exceptionally strong depreciation on Friday and the first day of the new week. Brent futures with delivery next month lost $1.1, or 1.4% on Friday's closing level.
US crude oil fell by 1.57 dollars, or 2.3% on Friday's closing level.
Brent and US oil fell respectively by 6.4 and 9 percent of its peak in early May. In China, oil fell 4.5 percent to 459 yuan a barrel (71.83 dollars a barrel).
The rise in oil prices in recent weeks has sparked serious debates among market participants and OPEC members about the impact of oil prices on the world economy, according Chittag Ay, chief economist at Morgan Stanley.
On Friday, Saudi Arabia and Russia, which are considered to be drivers of the oil market, said some oil production growth of 1 million barrels per day was under discussion.
Production cuts were the factor that led to substantial oil prices on international markets.
With the price rise, however, the US producer of US oil is also growing, benefiting from the high oil price.
Oil prices have collapsed after reports that Saudi Arabia and Russia have agreed to increase their production in the second half of the year, ANZ said.
US energy companies have added 15 new field deposits for the week to May 25.

May seems to be the best 5-th month for US markets for 9 years

You've probably heard the Wall Street rule - "Sell in May and relax." Well, it turns out that this rule does not apply, at least this year.
Indeed, US indices are moving to their best performance for nine years, after rising 2.8% since the beginning of the month. The blue chip index Dow Jones Industrial is also heading for its best performance since May 2009, according to FactSet.
In May 2009, the index added 5.3% to its value. Since the beginning of the fifth month of this year, the indicator has brought 4.1% return to investors.
The Nasdaq Composite Index is the best-performing US index this month, with a return of 5.2% since the beginning of the month. Better was its performance in May 2005, when it rose by 7.63%.
Investors' eyes will now be on trade data, US GDP growth, and employment and unemployment figures in the US for the past month, which will most likely predict the direction of the market next month.

USD/CAD: technical view for 05/25/18

The pair is trading near the upper limit of the range 1.2750-1.2900 against the background of correction of prices for crude oil. If oil quotes continue to decline, then the pair may continue local upward movement.
Technical picture:
The price is located above the lower line of the boundaries of the Bollinger bands, below EMA 5 and EMA 13. RSI is above the level of 50% and moves horizontally. Stochastics are neutral. MACD is above the zero mark and is growing. Indicators do not confirm each other.
Trading recommendations:
If the pair overcomes the 1.2900 mark, we should expect its local growth to 1.2970.

OPEC prepares markets for changing quotas

At the auction on Thursday Brent crude oil fell by more than 1% after once again did not dare to challenge the level of 80. In general, quotes remain high and continue to feed by the subject of sanctions, but the market is beginning to form fears of another kind that can put the end of the recent rally.
Before the semi-annual OPEC + summit in Vienna, a little less than a month remains, and exporters need to prepare the markets in advance for possible scenarios, so as not to shock investors and avoid sharp fluctuations in prices. It seems that this preparation is just beginning. By the way, according to rumors, all key producers of the Middle East support the weakening of quotas.
As this development, we can see a way out of long positions on Brent in a wave of profit-taking at still attractive levels for sale. Moreover, the downside risks will increase, if, for example, there are fears that Iran will be able to compensate losses from US sanctions at the expense of deliveries to the EU.
From a technical point of view, the probability of a downward breakout is now higher than the chance of a return above 80. Accordingly, the level 78 may be at risk, the loss of which will signal a further elimination of the longs. The catalyst for this movement may be the current report of Baker Hughes, if it indicates the resumption of the growth in the number of drilling in the US.

Pound is in no hurry to recover

European currencies are making new attempts to recover within the bearish trend, but the momentum remains limited. Euro slightly moved away from the fresh lows of the year under the 1.17 mark, but on approach to the 100-hour moving average consolidated slightly above the opening level.
The pound received a good push to accelerate the bullish pulse, but could not use it fully. Retail sales in Britain were much better than forecasts in April. The indicator in monthly terms jumped 1.6% after a decrease of 1.1% against expectations of a recovery of 0.7%. Sales excluding fuel also recovered, showing an increase of 1.3% after a 0.5% decrease in volumes in March.
GBP/USD tried to grow in response to the release, but just like the euro, it ran into a 100-hour moving average in the 1.3420 area and fell back under the psychological mark. The pair must close above 1.34 to confirm the weakening of short-term pressure.
The reaction of quotations speaks not only of the restraint of buyers in the market, where the dollar continues to trade within the uptrend, but also that the restoration of retail sales did not affect the expectations of players regarding the future policy of the Bank of England. In addition, the April data players regard as obsolete - the response to fresh releases promises to be more lively.
In the short term, the pound is unlikely to develop the momentum of growth and is likely to continue to attract sales on growth attempts. The nearest important resistance is in the area of ​​1.3460.