BNP Paribas: It's time to sell the Australian dollar

This month the Australian dollar again raise its price, however, as before, it failed to break through key resistance levels, and while its attempts to decrease remain limited, the dynamics of the pair shows a weakening of upward momentum, analysts said.
Analysts at BNP Paribas note that market participants in recent years have gained a strong track record of long positions and the positions of speculators close to important technical levels suggest the attractiveness of short positions in AUD/USD.
At the bank believe that the new period of decrease will also contribute to fundamental factors and announced the opening of short positions in AUD at 0.7695 with target 0.7400 and a stop at 0.7815.

Review of today's macroeconomic events

Today Donald Trump for the first time will appear in front of representatives of both US Houses of Parliament with their vision regarding the implementation of plans for the pre-election program. The main points of his speech will be the cancellation of Obamacare, the implementation of infrastructure projects in the energy sector, aimed at creating new jobs, and changes in tax legislation. This last point is extremely important for the global stock market. On the one hand, there may be disclosed tax incentives for the transfer of production in the US for many American manufacturers. From the other hand, it will be possible to assess the implications of these initiatives for the Asian and European economies. Given the uncertainty of the results of performance of Donald Trump, investors around the world are afraid to make deals. Trade turnover in the European and Asian markets today fell on average by 20% compared with the values ​​of the last two weeks. To date, European indexes traded in a small plus. Published today in France, statistics on GDP growth coincided with market expectations, growth of the economy of the country amounted to 1.2% y/y.

Gold rising

On Friday, the price of gold reached a maximum of three and a half months due to lower expectations for a quick reform of the tax administration of the Trump.
Gold futures for April rose by 0.53% to $1258.05 on a division of the New York Commodity Exchange COMEX. During the trading session, the price of gold rose to a maximum from November 11 - $1258.8.
For the week gold has risen in price by 1.56%, registering the fourth consecutive week of increase.
On Thursday, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that he would like to hold a large-scale tax reform through Congress before the holidays in August, but there is still a lot of work.
He also noted that the Trump administration's actions to change economic policies are likely to have an effect only next year.
These statements have reduced investors' expectations that the tax reform will boost the inflation and will force FED to raise interest rates in the United States.

Barclays reduced its target price for oil in 2018 by $10

On Friday, analysts at Barclays (LON: BARC) lowered their forecast for the price of Brent crude oil at the end of 2018, but confirmed the trend in the increase of oil prices.
In particular, analysts have lowered the forecast of oil on the London Commodity Exchange to $67 per barrel from the previous value of $77.
The analysts at Barclays explained, that they maintain their forecast that the price increase will be by $10 higher than the current rate futures.
They also left unchanged the forecast for the average price of a barrel of Brent crude oil for 2017 at $57 per barrel, noting that the forecast for the second quarter was $62.
Analysts called the situation "a game of musical chairs", which will end as soon as the US shale oil producers to increase production, or completed action on the production reduction agreement.
According to the analysts, if OPEC agreement is not renewed, it will decline in 2018, oil prices will be more volatile when stockpiling will continue, as OPEC spare capacity.
British bank's forecast for the price of WTI crude oil was $56 per barrel in 2017 and $65 per barrel in 2018.

Deutsche Bank: Short positions in EUR/CHF have become more attractive

The fundamentals remain constructive for the Swiss currency, in addition to these, analysts believe that increased political risks in Europe that are negative for the euro and positive for francs and which maintain the status of the franc as a safe haven currency.
At Deutsche Bank noted that the inflow of foreign capital continues to urge the franc to rise, as 1.06 level seems to have become the new unofficial border of the Swiss National Bank, as bank analysts do not talk about defense of this level at any cost.
At Deutsche Bank advised attempts to growth of EUR/CHF to be used for sales of еuro, expecting to break below 1.06 and the fall of the exchange rate at 1.00. Analysts note that the data show favorable for such a deal positioning of market participants.

Danske Bank: Uncertainty about the economy of Trump may lead the Fed to raise rates only twice in 2017

As expected, we have not learned many new from FOMC, as most members of the committee have already expressed their views after its meeting in February. The head of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen also spoke, as she did in mid-February before Congress.
FOMC members believe that the economy continues to show improvement, but Trump's economics makes predicting future decisions indefinite. The word "uncertainty" was mentioned in the minutes of FOMC 14 times. This is slightly less than in December, when it was mentioned 15 times, but significantly more than in November, when Donald Trump won the elections (only 5 times).
Although most members of the Commission expect that the increase in interest rates will happen "very soon", only a small portion of the hopes are that this will happen at the meeting in March. This confirms the opinion of analysts of the bank that the increase in interest rates in March seems unlikely. The Fed can not afford to sit on the fence, pointing to the strong dollar and inflation, which remained below the target level of 2%.
The bank analysts continue to believe that the Fed will raise rates twice in 2017: in June and December. But there is a chance for a third increase. If economic indicators remain strong, analysts of the bank will receive more information about the economy of Trump, as then they do not exclude the possibility of an increase in interest rates in May.

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