Wednesday, 15 August 2018

Growth for US indices yesterday

The slight improvement in the situation in Turkey has led to the stabilization of world stock indices. US indicators even ended slightly on positive territory.
Dow Jones added 0.5% to nearly 25,300 points, while the broad S&P 500 rose 0.6% to 2,839.96. Nasdaq added 0.65% to its value - to 7,870.89 points.
Meanwhile, the Turkish lira rose 8 percent to 6.35 pounds a dollar after the Turkish currency hit a record low of 7.24 pounds per dollar on Monday.
The Turkish lira, which for some time on Friday lost over 20% of its value, reached a new record low on Monday. It registered a record drop of more than 15% in just one day. However, there was some recovery in value after the country's central bank announced it would step in to stabilize its national currency.

Monday, 13 August 2018

The strong dollar sank the metals and oil

The dollar continued with its exceptionally strong appreciation over other major currencies. Especially strong was the growth of the US dollar against the New Zealand dollar. The appreciation of the dollar has adversely affected metal prices. However, their decline was relatively limited. Silver is traded at levels of 15.25 dollars per ounce and gold at $1,208. Platinum lost at least its value, swapping at levels of about $820 per ounce.
Oil also fell on the first day of the new week. The reason for this was the growing tension in world trade, especially in Asia, although US sanctions against Iran support prices to some extent and lead to more limited supplies.
Brent fell 21 cents to 72.60 dollars a barrel, compared to Friday's closing price. The decline in US crude oil, which dropped by five cents to $67.60 a barrel, was far farther.
Keeping the bearish sentiment on the market, hedge funds and other financial managers have cut their oil futures positions in the US in the week ending August 7, according to the CFTC US Trends Trading Commission on Friday. Total long positions in New York and London were 9,117, to a total of 397,885, the lowest level since June 19, according to CFTC data.

Thursday, 9 August 2018

The cryptocurrencies collapsed

The last two days were extremely heavy for the cryptocurrencies. More than 20% of their market value lost cryptocurrencies like ethereum and ripple. Earlier this morning, the ethereum is traded at levels of $365 per coin, while the ripple - at $0.34 per coin.
Serious decline has the bitcoin cash - down to $597, as well as the bitcoin, traded at $6,350 early this morning.
The depreciation of the cryptocurrencies occurred after the decision of the US Financial Supervision Commission to postpone its decision on VanEck's and SolidX's demands for an index based on the cost of the bitcoin. This was VanEck's third attempt to start this kind of fund.
More than $9 billion of the cost of the bitcoin was "wiped out" after the decision of the US regulator.
We can also recall that the Winklevos brothers' request for the creation of such a fund last month was also rejected. It was then that the strong decrease in cryptocurrencies levels was also started.
Market participants were hoping for a US regulator's permission for such a kind of index fund, which would be the first of its kind.
The proposal of the two investment companies, VanEck and Solid X, was to create an index fund backed by real bitcoins rather than futures on it.
Index funds are seen as a way of exposition of institutional investors to cryptocurrencies. The lack of such funds seriously limits the access of large investors to the relatively limited and not particularly liquid market of cryptocurrencies.
So far, there have been many attempts to obtain permission from the US regulator for an index fund, but none of them has been successful. The question is - how long can the regulators' rejection continue?

Pound/dollar - now where?

The growing prospect of a "Brexit without a deal" leaves GBP bulls away from the beginning of the week.
The comments of this kind supported some streams to safe havens such as the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc and proved to be one of the key factors for the sale of pounds. All this uncertainty surrounding the Brexit process continues to weigh on the striling, which in recent days has fallen away from most of its major competitors.
The bad series of the British currency continued for the 5th consecutive day and the previous lowest GBP/USD value for the year - 1.2919 was pierced. Almost immediately after this breakthrough, the cable tested 1.2900. Eventually disembarking underneath it can trigger stop orders and another sharp drop down. Especially in the absence of strong support.
The nearest level GBP can count on is about 1.2852, bottom since the end of August last year, after which the bears are likely to look at the nearly 14-month minimum 1.2774. On the other hand stabilization here and rising above the psychological 1.30 will give a sip of air to buyers who can look at 1.3049.
Still, overall, the picture around the British pound remains extremely sensitive to the news about Brexit. It is precisely the development of the UK-EU split negotiations that remain the main driver for couples including the GBP.

Wednesday, 8 August 2018

A new drop for precious metals and oil

Noble metals and oil dropped today after the US dollar rises again. Gold again returned at a trading rate of $1,210, and we can see a psychological limit test of $1,200 per ounce.
The silver is traded at levels of $15.30 per ounce, or close to the lowest levels for the last one year. Platinum is exchanged at 825 dollars per ounce.
Meanwhile, the price of oil fell somewhat after its strong rise at the start of the week. Data released indicated a reduction in oil and petroleum stocks in the United States, in enforced sanctions against Iran.
US crude oil fell by nearly 30 cents to $69 a barrel, and the Brent to $73.80 a barrel.
We can recall that the Brent came back at trading levels above $74 a barrel after US sanctions against Iran came into force yesterday. It is expected Iran's production to cut by about 1 million barrels, from its current level to nearly 3 million barrels.

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Tuesday, 7 August 2018

J. Gundlach: Decrease your US stocks positions!

The popular investor, Jeffrey Gundlach, advised investors to cut their exposure to US stocks and diversify them with other markets, such as India and Japan.
In an interview, the head of DoubleLine Capital also said he expects at least two Fed rises in interest rates this year.
Gundlach, confirmed his position from last June that an increase in 10-year US Treasury interest rates, above the psychological limit of 3%, would cause serious trouble for US stocks. Such an action would certainly mark the end of the three-decades-long bullish bond market.
Gundlach's position is very close to that of another legendary bond investor, Bill Gross, according to which bonds will enter the bear market when interest rates on 10-year securities are 2.6%. And these interest rates had already passed.
With regard to shares, Gundlach reaffirmed his view that other markets, beyond the US, are far cheaper and have a significant catching-up potential.