Saturday, 16 June 2018

How to deal the dollar next few days?

Discrepancies in the monetary policy of the Fed and the ECB are likely to lead to an increase in the dollar exchange rate and a decrease in the euro next week, making the dollar more attractive to profit-seeking investors.
On Wednesday the "three bigs" - Kuroda, Draghi and Powel will perform in Portugal and would shake the markets with some volatility, bringing to table good trading options.
On Thursday the Bank of England will keep the interest rate unchanged. The decision of the National Bank of Switzerland will be similar.
The US dollar index fell 0.14% at the end of the trading session on Friday to 94.80, after rising to a maximum in eleven months, to 95.13. Over the last week, the dollar index rose 1.33%, which was the largest growth in seven weeks.
More likely, the dollar will keep the good pace next week.

Friday, 15 June 2018

Gold gets cheaper after the dollar rises

Gold declined after the dollar appreciated against other major currencies as a result of the surprisingly good results of the historic meeting between Trump and Kim Chen Un.
The spot price of gold fell 0.2 percent to $1,297 per ounce, and the precious metal futures with delivery in August lost 0.1 percent to $1,301.50 per ounce.
The dollar has been a major driver of the movement in the price of gold and other precious metals lately. The reduction in geopolitical tensions, however, has an additional impact on the direction of the shiny metal, according to Daniel Hines, an analyst at ANZ.
The price of gold is at serious resistance at levels of 1300-1305, as well as support from Asian buyers when it approaches $ 1,290 per ounce.
For other metals, silver fell 0.3 percent to $ 16.83 and platinum was traded at about $ 903 per ounce.

Thursday, 14 June 2018

50 Cent bets on VIX again

Do you remember the mysterious trader "50 Cent"? The guy who, for nearly a year, has consistently bet on put options on the VIX volatility index and, though for a long time shadowed, ultimately made a profit of tens of millions of dollars?
This might be a good example of how patience and persistence of trading, coupled with a good commercial strategy, reward the player.
Well, it looks like the mysterious trader is back to its favorite instrument again.
After profiting about $183 million and long absent, or rather awaiting, from the volatility index market, the trader made its bet again.
It was placed on Tuesday with the purchase of 50,000 call options with $28 bet on the volatility index at a level of 0.50 and 0-51 cents. On Wednesday morning, a similar deal was made again, but this time for 0.49 cents.
Of course, there are some doubts about whether the bet is made by the original "50 cent" and not by an immitator. So it's good to have one mind on S&P 500.

Russia is raising its oil production

Oil prices dropped somewhat, as a result of negative forecasts from JPMorgan late last week that non-OPEC countries are expected to raise their production seriously in 2019.
They will be led by the United States, along with Russia, Brazil, Canada and Kazakhstan, the US investment bank said.
In addition, downward pressure on oil prices also revealed that Russia's production in May was over 11 million barrels a day, or above the country's target of producing less than 11 million barrels.
Next, the appreciation of the dollar, pending the Fed's decision to raise the interest rate again, also has its impact on the price of "black gold".
The number of oilfields in the United States has risen to 862, according to Baker Hughes. This is their highest level since March 2015. This suggests that US production, which is already at a record of 10.82 million barrels per day, may continue to rise in the future.
Oil prices, however, have changed their negative course, following comments by the oil minister of Iraq, that oil-producing countries should not be pressed to produce more oil.

Wednesday, 13 June 2018

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Friday, 8 June 2018

Nasdaq is down and everyone is fleeing from FANG companies

US indices traded mixed yesterday, which is definitely a cause for concern. Technological Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 continued with their decline after new record highs reached, while Dow Jones rose.
The Nasdaq 100 Index declined for the first time in five days, with investors dumping and selling shares in the FANG group and targeting the stocks of the banking companies.
Interest rates on 10-year US bonds continue to keep below the psychological limit of 3%, but according to market observers the expected almost 100% rise in interest rates in June begins to weigh above the market and indices.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index returned its earlier earnings yesterday after disappointing factory orders in Germany. The euro appreciated as a result of rising expectations for the end of monetary stimulus in the euro area.

Thursday, 7 June 2018

The world's biggest hedge fund: the 2019th will be hard for the economy

When the founder and head of the world's largest hedge fund, Ray Dalio, speaks, the market is silent and listening. And what Dalio says should bother all market players.
According to the head of Bridgewater Associates, next year will be difficult for stock markets and the economy. He is bearish for almost every asset class, Dalio commented in a recent letter to the clients of the fund he manages.
2019 seems to be a dangerous period for the economy, Dalio says.
Earlier in the month, the hedge fund manager said he was at the forefront of the stock market and this is a problem.
The company, which currently manages assets worth about $150 billion, believes the US bond yield curve should remain flat, in a range where oil reached $62 a barrel and the dollar fell 3.5 percent against the rest of the major currencies.
2019 seems to be a dangerous period for the economy when the financial stimulus is over, and the Fed's interest rate cycle will find its peak, Dalio said in the letter to the hedge fund investors. Given the fact that financial markets are ahead of what is happening in the real economy, the danger to investors is already present.