Страници

Saturday, 25 March 2017

Barclays is waiting for recovery of the euro against the franc

Currency strategists at Barclays note that investor sentiment towards the euro in recent times have changed for the better and believe that sustainable economic recovery will strengthen the market, which is of the opinion that the ECB is close enough to start removing stimulus measures, analysts said.
In the bank believe that correction of forecasts of the European central bank may give investors reason to expect an increase in deposit interest rates next year.
In addition, in the coming months, support for the single European currency can eliminate the risk premium associated with the uncertainty of the elections in France, analysts say.
At Barclays noted that such a prospect gives cause for moderate optimism in EUR/CHF - in the are bank waiting for the pair in the second quarter to come back to 1.09 and will continue to recover moderately (to 1.10 and 1.11 respectively) in the third and fourth quarters.

Thursday, 23 March 2017

BofA-ML: market positioning of dollar suggests neither growth nor decline in prices

The current market positioning of the dollar seems neutral. In addition, positions opened before and after the presidential elections in the US, were closed.
A new impetus for the growth of the US currency may give the fiscal policy of the United States (survey results show high expectations that the tax reform will be carried out this year). Market positioning suggests neither an increase nor a decrease in the dollar.
A strengthening of the volatility of the euro is quite possible. According to participants in the trade, some investors are betting on growth in the single currency and the current positioning of it is more bullish than a year ago.
Analysts believe that the weakness of the euro in the first half of the year will change because of its strengthening against the possible desire of the ECB to begin to alleviate its program for quantitative easing. Generally they say that investor sentiment for the single currency is more bullish than positions on the market.

Some fuel for NZD

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left interest rates unchanged at 1.75% yesterday. Although the central bank felt that the currency needed to fall still further to balance growth, and monetary policy should remain adaptive for a considerable time, officials also said that inflation should grow in the coming months. Now they believe that the consumer price index will return to the goal in the medium term, rather than gradually, and GDP growth in the fourth quarter was weak partly due to time factors. Therefore, their position on the prospects for growth is positive.
RBNZ began to tighten its position in the last few meetings, and therefore I think that the New Zealand dollar should grow. Today there will be data on the trade balance of New Zealand, which can provide support for the currency, as a sharp improvement in the mood of entrepreneurs should lead to increased trading activity.

Wednesday, 22 March 2017

Goldman Sachs: Investors have become more favorable for the euro

Currency strategists at Goldman Sachs have identified a change in the behavior of market participants amid recent signals and raising forecasts by the ECB and a warning that in the absence of deterioration in the nature of incoming data in the coming weeks, the rhetoric of central bank may become more confident.
At Goldman Sachs believe that the ECB is too optimistic in their forecasts for economic growth and inflation, there is potential for further adjustment of ECB policy.
Bank analysts believe that the recovery of the euro will be felt in the crosses (Fed factor is eliminated) and retain their quarterly forecast for EUR/GBP at 0.90 level and at the level of 127 for EUR/JPY.

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Sunday, 19 March 2017

Inflation in the euro zone accelerated in February

In February, inflation in the eurozone managed to exceed the target level of the ECB of just under 2 percent for the first time in four years thanks to a new rise in energy prices, showed final data from Eurostat, confirming preliminary assessment of European statistics.
The consumer price index (CPI) in the euro zone rose in February on a monthly basis by 0.4% and increased yoy by 2.0% after rising by 1.8% in January. This is the highest inflation in the region from January 2013 onwards, when it also increased by 2%.
Thus inflation in the euro zone managed to exceed, albeit small, medium-term target level of the ECB of just under 2 percent for the first time in four years.
Energy prices jumped in February by 9.3% annually, while prices of food, beverages and tobacco products rose by 2.5 percent from a year earlier, while prices of services increased by 1.3%. These data confirm that the sharp rise in inflation in recent months is due to the greatest extent of the solid growth of energy prices and a rise in food prices.
However, the main index of consumer prices (excluding prices of food, tobacco and energy) rose for the third consecutive month by 0.9%.

Credit Agricole: The dollar was the victim of unfulfilled hopes

Currency strategists at Credit Agricole recognize the risk of an upward adjustment of EUR/USD in the short term, but expressed doubts about the sustainability of such a movement and its scope.
At the bank believe that the dollar was the victim of the "buy on rumor, sell on facts" and ahead of the FOMC interest rate futures almost guaranteed increase in interest rates and accompanying statement could not warm up expectations for more aggressive tightening policy.
The liquidation of long positions by speculators disappointed in the near future will finish and market participants will remember that the dollar is the third-yield currency of the G10 as maintaining short positions in the currency is not expensive, analysts say.
The situation of the US economy remains highly constructive and Credit Agricole believe that investors underestimate the scale of the rise in interest rates in 2018 and 2019, as suggested by official forecasts of Fed. In addition, exchange rates do not reflect fully the positive for the dollar changes in the differential rate.
Credit Agricole is sticking to its forecast for EUR/USD in the second quarter at 1,04 and 1,05 in the third, hoping that the pair will recover to 1.08 in the fourth and 1.11 in the first quarter of 2018.