Thursday, 26 October 2017

JPM: There are no cheap assets at the moment

Richard Madigan, Chief Investment Officer of the Private Banking Unit of the Investment Bank J.P. Morgan has bad news for investors. And it is - no asset seems cheap at the moment.
Madagan, which manages assets of $290 billion of private customers, and a total of more than $1 trillion in general, believes that the main challenge for investors today is the diversification of expensive markets and how to manage the higher customer expectations.
Yesterday, the stock saw a certain return after the record highs, which is seen as the first symptom of risk exposures among investors, and according to some experts, may be a precursor to a more serious adjustment.
The strategy among investors to buy on any index drop was the most profitable in the past three to five years, but the question is when will it stop working properly?
Some experts, such as GS, have made comments last week that the US economy and markets may be close to their peak. A similar thesis was taken up by other market observers.
Still, the foundation for the economy and companies remains strong, concludes Madigan. So, the biggest challenge for the manager right now is still the proper management of investor expectations. And the latter are quite high.

Oil rally may be short-term?

Another good week for oil after the OPEC Secretary predicted global oil consumption growth to over 100 million barrels per day by 2020. Mohamed Barkindo's statement was widely welcomed by oil investors.
Investors are now beginning to ask - is the oil rally justified and how far could the price of black gold go?
The market knows that OPEC's positive comments and forecasts often are rapidly being overcomed. Especially in cases where net long positions of investors rise to high levels, as currently the case is.
Investors are aware that any forecasts coming from OPEC should be taken with a great portion of mistrust. In the end, they come from a party that is interested in a high oil price and can be manipulated.
Some experts start to worry that the price of oil has risen too much and too fast. Not only the planned repairs of US refineries expected to bring downward pressure on raw material prices, but also the number of shale growers is rising as a result of the rise in oil prices.
Oil demand from China may also fall below expectations, which is another factor to lower the price of oil.
On the other hand, the unprecedented warming of relations between Russia and Opec may be a factor that will continue to support the cost of the raw material. What will happen from now on is yet to be seen.

Wednesday, 25 October 2017

Gold continues to lose positions

Gold fell yesterday after investors were eagerly awaiting the announcement of the new Fed leader who would feed the dollar. At the same time, US indices are trading very close to their record highs.
President Trump told the media on Monday that he was "very, very close" to his choice of a new Fed leader.
The spot price of gold fell by 0.5% to $1 276 per ounce after falling to $ 1,271.86 an ounce a day earlier.
Gold futures with delivery in December fell by 0.2 percent to $1 278.9 per ounce.
The spot price of gold lost 6 percent of its one-year high on September 8, at a level of $1,357.54 per ounce. Expectations are that the Fed will raise rates in December for the third time this year.
Gold also does not receive support in the direction of geopolitical uncertainty. Recently, there is nothing new about North Korea, or the situation seems quite relaxed.

Tuesday, 24 October 2017

GS: S&P 500 at 2 400 points by the end of the year

The US economy is growing at a healthy pace, which has already brought the US indexes to new record highs, commented GS chief financial analyst David Kostin. He acknowledged that a synchronized rise in economic activity around the world was a major reason for the appreciation of the stock.
Now, however, Kostin warns investors to be careful. He pointed to the ISM Manufacturing Index, which is at a 13-month high of 60.8 points in September. Indicator value is above 50 points, signaling growth.
In other words, according to Kostin, the current ISM index values ​​could signal a peak in the economy.
And as we know, expectations are being traded in the markets. When expectations begin to slow down, markets are also following.
Kostin predicts the blue chip index S&P 500 to drop to 2 400 points by the end of the year. Despite these expectations, he likes growth-oriented stocks.

Monday, 23 October 2017

Draghi: Cryptocurrencies are not mature enough to be regulated

Apparently, the head of the ECB, Mario Draghi, has become bored, or he just wants to divert the market attention after commenting on the cryptocurrencies. All eyes are on Draghi, looking for potential signs of what the ECB's future monetary stimulus policy will be. Draghi, however, surprised everybody, by saying that cryptocurrencies, are not mature enough to be regulated. According to him, digital currencies need to be approached with particular attention in relation to the potential risks associated with them.
Until now, the different regulators have adopted a different approach to cryptocurrencies. It varies widely from their recognition from Japan, to the ICO ban in China, and the closure of the Crypto-Exchanges.
Last month, in a formal statement to the European Parliament on Economic and Monetary Affairs, Draghi said the ECB had no competence to regulate cryptocurrencies.

Thursday, 19 October 2017

Gold with a third consecutive decline, as a result of the strong dollar

Gold fell for a third consecutive session on Wednesday, driven by strong dollar pressure and speculation who might be the next Fed leader. And the expectations are him to be far more aggressive in terms of interest than Janet Yelan.
Gold lost 0.3% to $1,280.86 per ounce with immediate delivery. Its lowest value for the day was at a level of $1,277.14, or a level unseen since October 9.
Gold futures, with delivery in December, lost 0.3 percent to $1,282.60 per ounce.
The rise in interest rates for the following year is not fully appreciated by the dollar, according to market observers. And this reflects very negatively on the price of gold.

Wednesday, 18 October 2017

The ActivTrades Financial Trading Summit 2017

I am thrilled to inform that my favorite forex broker ActivTrades will hold their ActivTrades Financial Trading Summit 2017!
It will be held on Saturday, 28 Oct 2017, in Shangri-La Dubai Hotel.
On this amazing event we will meet the best ActivTraders speakers:

- Dr. Andrew Lumsden Groom will speak on Applying Methods to Improve Trading Efficiency;
- Ms Ann Hunt will guide us thru the Psychological Trading;
- Ms Sara Waqar will clarify to us the main prospects in forex Risk Management;
- Nour Eldeen Muffeed KH. Alhammoury will present An in-depth look into Fundamental Analysis.

The program of this outstanding event also includes tea and coffee, lunch, panel discussion with lecturers and networking with industry professionals and other traders.

For more information and registration, visit here.

Tuesday, 17 October 2017

J. Dimon: If you are stupid enough to buy bitcoin, you will pay for it

Jamie Dimon can not just stay out of the bitcoin. Only one day after his bank announced its quarterly results, and Dimon had swaered never to comment on the bitcoin, he failed to fulfill his quest.
During a conference, Dimon said that if you're stupid enough to buy it, then one day you'll pay the price for it.
In September, Dimon called the bitcoin a scam. After the strong initial depreciation of more than 30%, the cryptocurrency recovered everything lost, reaching new historical records at levels above $5,800.
Despite the remarks made by Dimon, however, the bitcoin survived without significant change at levels of about $5,700.
Meanwhile, the Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC) lost about 2% of its value today, with its highest value for the past one year accounting for nearly 40% of the price.
In a special interview, Mark Wydman, a global strategist for iShares, said in an interview with Bloomberg that he does not see a particularly great sense in an index fund on a bitcoin, because we're talking about trading with assets that are difficult to access. If the bitcoin ever becomes successful, why do we need an index to access the bitcoin, the expert asked.

Dow broke 23,000 points for the first time in history

The Dow Jones blue chip index has overcome the 23,000-point psychological limit for the first time in its history, driven by over 5% growth in UnitedHealth's stock. The shares of the insurance company reached a historic record after having recorded better-than-expected results for the past quarter.
On the index, however, weighted the weak performance of the industrial companies.
We do not see a market that is fascinated by the results, according to other analysts who are talking about a potential correction for the indices after their record highs.
US Treasury bonds rose after higher-than-expected growth in import prices, which raised inflationary expectations and led to a rise in the US dollar.
Additional support for the dollar has made it clear that Donald Trump would most likely prefer John Taylor as the next Fed leader after Janet Yelan's term of office.
The fall of 1.2% in General Electric's shares led to a decline in the industrial index, while the fall in Microsoft's and Intel's shares put a heavy burden on its technology components.
Seven of the 11 major sectors in the broad US index recorded declines driven by the industrial one.
Netflix shares lost 1.2% of their value after they recorded a new historic record the previous day.

Monday, 16 October 2017

J. Gundlach: The dollar will fall in the long run

DoubleLine Capital CEO - Jeffrey Gundlach, talks about the situation in the most popular currency pair - EUR / USD in an interview with CNBC Financial.
First, we should note that at the beginning of the year all experts were extremely optimistic about the dollar. In fact, long dollar positions were among the most crowded deals in the market, Gundlach commented.
The dramatic depreciation of the dollar against the euro followed. We have to look at the factors that predetermined this. And that was mainly the expectations of investors for the Fed's policy.
Fed's comments on three interest rate rises in the market next year are not "bought from the market" for bonds, Gundlach commented. In fact, only 50% of market participants expect an increase in interest rates next year. And as I have not once seen, in my long-standing practice, the market has been much more predictive in history than the Fed.
Moreover, as far as possible, I expect the Fed to change its tone over time and in case of bad data, as well as its expectations for the number of interest rises in the next year. It is these expectations that make the dollar cheaper than other major currencies.
Otherwise, with regard to the recent appreciation of the dollar, it is not surprising. Indeed, in August, we witnessed its biggest daily decline in 20 years. And this, logically, puts it in a situation of "oversold", which many counter-investors have taken advantage of.
Otherwise, in general, I expect, despite the momentum of the dollar, that its depreciation in the longer term will continue, Gundlach predicted.

Saturday, 14 October 2017

J. Bogle: The market is fully appreciated

When the index fund father - Jack Bogle, talks, everyone listens. And Bogle has a lot to say to investors. In his last interview, he said that the market is fully appreciated.
Although two of the three major US indices fell last week, they all reached new record highs this month. And that makes Bogle, the founder of the Vanguard Group, to believe that the market is fairly valued at the moment.
According to his standarts, the financial ratings of companies are quite high, said Bogle in an interview with TheStreet. He added that his standards are high.
This year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average blue chip index passed 20,000 points and is currently trading close to 23,000 points. Technological Nasdaq rose by 22.42% since the beginning of the year, while the broad S&P 500 grew over eight consecutive days, registering its longest winning series since 2013.
It is good for investors to realize that the market is fully appreciated, and if they feel nervous about its condition, it may be better to close a portion of its portfolio, thinks Bogle.

Thursday, 12 October 2017

P. Harker: Another rate hike this year and three in the next

Fed Philadelphia head Patrick Harker said last week he expects another increase in interest from the reserve and three next year.
This program, however, will largely depend on the performance of inflation, Harker said.
He still signed up for three interest rates next year, but again we need to see how market dynamics is developing, Harker said in an interview with CNBC.
Apparently the comments of the official representatives of the reserve are not convincing enough, as yet a little over half of the market participants expect a third increase in interest rates this year.
We can not fail to note the still low performance of inflation in the world's leading economy. It is at levels below the target of 2%, puzzling seriously the members of the Monetary Policy Committee.
And although Fed officials, in the face of Janet Yelan and Stanley Fischer, have said in the past two weeks that they expect inflation to accelerate over the coming months as a result of low unemployment, inflation has fallen since the beginning year.

Wednesday, 11 October 2017

Fischer: Soon we will see inflation

The current path of low inflation in the US will not last long, according to Fed Vice President Stanley Fischer.
He still believes we will see higher inflation, Fischer said in an interview with Bloomberg TV.
The fall in unemployment will lead to an increase in wages at one point, and that is to inflation behind, Fischer said.
Fisher's comments are in line with statements by Janet Yelan, who recently said that she expects inflation to gradually rise over time.
Some Fed officials want to first see signs of returning inflation to target 2% before continuing the policy of raising interest rates.
Fischer said he welcomed the gradual rise in Fed interest rates since 2015.
Currently, the level of short-term US interest rates is between 1 and 1.25%. Inflation measured through personal consumption is at a level of 1.3% on an annual basis.

Tuesday, 10 October 2017

El-Erian: Only an external shock like North Korea can stop the stock rise

Allianz chief economist Mohamed El-Erian said he is concerned about what is happening with North Korea and potential mistakes by the Fed on monetary policy.
Investors felt comfortable in recent years that central banks supported them. But will this change?
Promises of "synchronized economic recovery" are not as strong as guaranteeing high asset prices, El-Erian said.
According to him, we need to see a series of significant events, or a bigger shock that would pull the market out of the rails. It is not easy to remove the market from its tracks.
Regarding the potential shocks that worry El-Erian, he pointed North Korea to do something very stupid, followed by such a reaction on the part of the United States.
El-Érian also worries about a possible error in the monetary policy of the leading central banks around the world, given their lenient policy since 2008.
Buying any correction is already a strategy that makes sense given the historical performance of the indexes. The question, however, is how long this strategy will work. And it will work until it stops working...

Monday, 9 October 2017

Larry Fink: I believe in cryptocurrencies

The polarization in the world of the bitcoin and the other cryptocurrencies continues with full force. After seeing the bankers who opposed the bitcoin and announcing it as a balloon, the cryptocurrencies received some support from other representatives of the financial world.
After it became clear that Goldman Sachs apparently planned to enter the digital money world more seriously, the latest support for the bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies came not from any else, but from one of the most influential financiers.
It's about Larry Fink, the head of the largest asset management fund - BlackRock.
According to Fink, the bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies can have a significant impact on the identification and disclosure of "money laundering" globally.
The continued growth of cryptocurrencies points to and reveals how money laundering is currently taking place in the world, Fink told Bloomberg.
He also said, that he is the one of the great believers in the potential of cryptocurrencies and what they can do. He added that he sees "tremendous opportunities" in the bitcoin, but at the moment, moods about cryptocurrencies are relatively speculative.

Friday, 6 October 2017

Jordan Belfort: The bitcoin is a scam

The real Wall Street Wolf, Jordan Belford, said in a special television interview that the swashbuckling and ditching schemes that led him being imprisoned are still a reality on Wall Street.
"This is still happening today," Belfort commented on The Street, financial magazine. "People use internet and chat rooms to discuss how to inflate the prices of certain stocks," the Wall Street wolf said.
Belfort is not sure whether he could really recreate the "swell and ditch" schemes in today's reality, given the growth in popularity of the global network.
As for people who have lost money on account of his financial schemes, Belfort continues to make up for the revenue from his book and media presentations.
Belfort is the author of the new book, 'The Way of the Wolf'.
Wall Street Wolf commented that he had already recovered $18 to 19 million from damage to investors by planning to rebuild more.
As for the bitcoin, Belford is concerned, that it was definitely a scam.
And while he sees a future in cryptocurrencies, he is worried about the possibility of hackers stealing the people's bitcoins.
"I know people who have lost all their money in this way," Belfort said, adding that he would never buy bitcoins himself.
Belfort expects central banks to present their own cryptocurrencies, and this is the factor that can halt the rise of cryptocurrencies.

Thursday, 5 October 2017

The pound with four-week low against the dollar

The pound fell to its lowest value of nearly four weeks against the dollar after speculation about a coup against Theresa Mey from her own party after her terrible speech on Wednesday.
The British currency has fallen against the ten major currencies, with demand for dollars being exacerbated. This has triggered stops in leveraged accounts, commented market experts.
According to British newspaper Telegraph, over 30 senior members of the party of May, prepare a petition for resignation.
The pound lost 0.9% against the greenback from 1.3134 to levels approaching test support at 55-day moving average. The pound fell further with 0.5% against the euro to 89.24 pence.

Wednesday, 4 October 2017

A Seminar by ActivTrades: The Power of Strategy

ActivTrades always cares about its customers, constantly teaching them, using all the new features of the Internet. That is why, ActivTrades regularly conducts events in partnership with leading traders and experts to help you in your trading. Learn how to improve your skills and develop new trading techniques. Be aware of the smallest changes in the market and learn how to define technical figures. Do not miss the opportunity to improve your trading strategy by visiting ActivTrades' seminars and webinars.

My favorite broker ActivTrades once again offers to its clients excellent free seminar, which will be held on 07-th of October 2017.

 The guest speakers Paul Wallace and Martin Walker will discuss the importance of a solid strategy and how you can implement a system into your own trading everyday.
 2017 is an year of historic and turbulent events which have rocked the financial market. From the UK activating Article 50 in March, to the eventful French presidential elections in April and May and of course Trumps policy, there has never been a greater need for a clear and precise trading strategy.

 Martin Walker is full time Trader, Trading Educator and Mentor who is passionate about perfecting and teaching his trading techniques.  He started trading Forex in April 2008 and attended an International Traders Conference that October, where he met his former Forex mentors. He has experience trading both as an individual and for funds.

 After a career in the Royal Air Force Paul Wallace started trading whilst working in the City during the dot-com boom of the late nineties. Paul is now a professional financial trader with more than 24 years’ experience working in competitive, results-driven, performance environments. Paul has always been fascinated by success, achievement and peak performance, whether on the battlefield, sports-field, boardroom or financial markets.

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Tuesday, 3 October 2017

Gold and oil continue to dig lower

The continuing strength of the dollar, following tensions in Spain, has led to further losses for gold and oil. Gold traded close to its lowest for the past two months, with the decline accelerated at the price of oil.
The noble metal lost $9.1 yesterday, or 0.7% to a level of $1 275.70 per ounce. This was the lowest level of trading since August 8.
The decline in the metal was largely predetermined after new record highs for US indices yesterday, in light of the expected massive tax reform by President Trump.
The oil price also marked serious losses. The Brent is traded at $56.40 and US crude at $50.3 a barrel.

Monday, 2 October 2017

A mysterious trader makes a big bet on volatility

A multi-dollar bet on increased market volatility, made by a mysterious trader, enters into the eyes of traders in the financial markets. The bet is about to turn into the largest, based on the volatility index this year.
The trade, made in July, predicts a serious rise in the volatility index in the short term. Meanwhile, the VIX index is currently at its lowest levels this year.
Based on the option trades, the trader expects the VIX index to rise to levels below 20 or slightly above 20. If the index rises above 20, then the position will become losing.
For comparison, VIX currently is traded at levels below 10, which is one of its lowest values ​​this year.
Experts recall that the deal may have a hedging goal of a large institutional investor portfolio rather than just a bet for higher volatility.
At the current record levels for US indices, the volatility index is at atypically low levels flirting with the lowest levels in 23 years.

Sunday, 1 October 2017

Buffett: Dow at levels of 1,000,000 would not have been impossible

It's hard to argue with the genius investor Warren Buffett. When Buffett speaks and makes predictions, everyone is silent and listening. Unfortunately, for some of the predictions of the "Oracle of the Omaha," will sue our heirs.
Buffett recently said he believes it is not impossible for the Dow Jones blue chip index to reach 1,000,000 points after 100 years. By comparison, the indicator is currently at 22,000 points.
But how many of us will be alive to see if this will happen?
More importantly, however, Buffett's idea is how we should look at investing - long-term. Buffett has repeatedly promoted the long-term investment. In his opinion, the time for which a position in the portfolio is to be held is eternity. Buffett also advised investors to focus on the game, rather than just looking at the scoreboard.
Other Buffett's emblematic advice is to buy long-term equity index shares based on broad indices, which he believes are the best form of investment by individual investors.
And while Buffett's estimate of an index value of 1,000,000 points may sound pompous or unrealistic, it is far from being unachievable. In fact, to reach 1,000,000 points in 100 years, an annual return of only 4.7% is needed, which is far below the average for the past 50 years.
All, that has to happen, is that the indexes continue to grow at the pace of recent decades.
Buffett points out that the Dow blue chip index was only 81 points a century ago. It was created in the 1890's, by the 30 largest American companies.