The strong dollar sank the metals and oil

The dollar continued with its exceptionally strong appreciation over other major currencies. Especially strong was the growth of the US dollar against the New Zealand dollar. The appreciation of the dollar has adversely affected metal prices. However, their decline was relatively limited. Silver is traded at levels of 15.25 dollars per ounce and gold at $1,208. Platinum lost at least its value, swapping at levels of about $820 per ounce.
Oil also fell on the first day of the new week. The reason for this was the growing tension in world trade, especially in Asia, although US sanctions against Iran support prices to some extent and lead to more limited supplies.
Brent fell 21 cents to 72.60 dollars a barrel, compared to Friday's closing price. The decline in US crude oil, which dropped by five cents to $67.60 a barrel, was far farther.
Keeping the bearish sentiment on the market, hedge funds and other financial managers have cut their oil futures positions in the US in the week ending August 7, according to the CFTC US Trends Trading Commission on Friday. Total long positions in New York and London were 9,117, to a total of 397,885, the lowest level since June 19, according to CFTC data.

The metals and the brent become cheaper

The appreciation of the US dollar after the Fed hinted that it would raise more interest rates this year, had an adverse effect on the prices of precious metals and oil.
Silver fell to 15.40 dollars per ounce, while platinum fell to 815 dollars per ounce. Gold is traded early this morning at $1,217 an ounce.
Oil has also been affected by the appreciation of green money and has continued its decline since the last two days. On Wednesday the raw material lost 2.5% of its value.
Earlier this morning, the Brent was traded at $71.90 a barrel and US crude at $68.4.
Oil prices are influenced by the effects of continuing tensions in world trade, but market participants are worried about any slowdown in economic growth around the world.

A Simple Gold Trading System (3)

What does gold look like today and what signal does it give, based on trading system requirements?

As we can see from the chart above, gold is currently trading below its 10-month moving average. That is, the trend for precious metal can be predetermined as a downward trend, and investors who want to buy gold are well worth waiting for the metal to return above that average. And this is most likely to happen when gold rises above the psychological limit of $1,300 per ounce.
In other words, be patient and wait for a confirmation that the downward trend in gold is exhausted.

A Simple Gold Trading System (2)

What was the result of this system?

Backtests of the system since 1971 show that it has earned investors an income of 16.8% a year when gold was bought (its price was above its 10-month moving average) and income of 2.9% when it was sold (the price was below the 10-month moving average).
For comparison, following the simple buy-and-go strategy for gold for the period under review has yielded an average annual return for investors of 8%.
In short, investors were definitely supposed to be in gold when they had a "purchases" signal.
Summarized, the system results look like this:
Between 2001 and 2012, the system has given frequent "buy" signals.
Between 2012 and 2015 dominated "sell" signals.
In 2016, the system gave signals for purchases in the first half of the year and a signal for sale from mid-October.

A Simple Gold Trading System (1)

The simple things are the ones you have to stick to when trading in the financial markets - this is advice given to investors by not one and two great investors, including the genius Warren Buffett.
In this line of thought, I will now introduce you a simple gold trading strategy that you can use as a second opinion when investing in the noble metal.
In fact, at this moment of uncertainty, more and more investors are looking at gold. Relations between the US and China are strained, and the official start of the "trade war" was also given in the beginning of the month.

What is the strategy?

The strategy is represented by experts from the Daily Wealth and includes long positions in gold if its price is over its 10-month moving average and shortening if the price of gold is below it. It just sounds simple, right? Yes... So we have met the requirement for simplicity.

US indices ended yesterday on green territory

Yesterday, the US indices ended in positive territory, with the biggest gain of 0.5% being the Dow Jones blue chip index. The broad S&P 500 added 0.4% to its value. With least gains ended the technological Nasdaq, adding only 3 points to its value. Otherwise, the index following the performance of the smaller companies - Russell 2000, ended in a negative territory.
Oil lost $0.5 of its value, and noble metals returned almost everything earned within the day. Earlier this morning gold is traded at levels of $1,250 per ounce and silver is below the psychological limit of $16.00 per ounce. Now is the question whether we will see a test of the bottom at $15.60 an ounce and will it remain in force?

Gold is pushed up from its bottom

At the beginning of the week, platinum fell momentarily below the psychological limit of $800 per ounce. But there was a fast return, and early this morning, the "white metal" was trading at 840 dollars per ounce.
Gold also recovered substantially from its decline on Monday when it reached the lowest value of $1 236 per ounce. Earlier today, precious metal was traded at levels of $1 254 per ounce.
The big loser is silver, although the metal was also the one that dropped at least during the precious metal fall at the beginning of the week.
Silver has returned at levels of trade above the psychological limit of 16 dollars per ounce, but faces difficulties for further growth. Serious resistance is at the level of $16.10 per ounce.
Down below, silver should not fall below the bottom of November last year at $15.60 an ounce. If this happens, the prospects for the appreciation of the metal will fall seriously. On the other hand, witnessing the acceleration of silver growth can only be achieved with a sustained return of more than 16.20 dollars per ounce.

Gold gets cheaper after the dollar rises

Gold declined after the dollar appreciated against other major currencies as a result of the surprisingly good results of the historic meeting between Trump and Kim Chen Un.
The spot price of gold fell 0.2 percent to $1,297 per ounce, and the precious metal futures with delivery in August lost 0.1 percent to $1,301.50 per ounce.
The dollar has been a major driver of the movement in the price of gold and other precious metals lately. The reduction in geopolitical tensions, however, has an additional impact on the direction of the shiny metal, according to Daniel Hines, an analyst at ANZ.
The price of gold is at serious resistance at levels of 1300-1305, as well as support from Asian buyers when it approaches $ 1,290 per ounce.
For other metals, silver fell 0.3 percent to $ 16.83 and platinum was traded at about $ 903 per ounce.

The gold and platinum fall

Despite the observed return of the dollar against other major currencies, gold and platinum fell. The yellow metal dropped to $1,290, where it now finds strong support.
However, according to technical analysts, if gold falls below $1,290, we can see a further decline in the price of precious metal to $1,280 and further to $1,270.
Platinum has returned below the psychological limit of $900, and now the point is, will the level of support remain at $890 unpierced.
If the metal returns over $900 and moves away above the level, which is likely to be a strong drag area, we can see a further appreciation of the metal.
But to a large extent, the movement of precious metals will continue to be predetermined by geopolitical factors such as trade relations between the US and China, as well as the direction of the dollar's movement relative to other major currencies.

Gold may strengthening

Quotes of gold traded quite actively in the course of trading on Tuesday, but at the end of the day almost did not change compared to the opening price of the session at around 1292 dollars per troy ounce.
For the gold market, it is very important that the price seems to be fixed below the support level of $1,300 per ounce. A record increase in the yield of US bonds over the past seven years and the strengthening of the dollar index to a five-month high continue to exert strong pressure on gold quotes. In addition, there are a strong US stock market, as well as expectations for further tightening of monetary policy in the US. Some investors expect three more interest rate hikes this year. The first of these should take place at the next Fed meeting in June, and according to some forecasts, the probability of this event is almost 100%.
Another factor testifying to the strengthening of gold remains a possible truce between China and the United States regarding possible trade wars. However, the geopolitical component still remains a factor of gold support, thanks to the possible introduction of US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela, after Nicolas Maduro was elected for a president for another term.

John Paulson and Ray Dalio believe in gold

Billionaire investor and hedge fund manager John Paulson, as well as Ray Dalio, founder of the world's largest hedge fund, remain faithful to gold. Even in the light of the yesterday's decline in the noble metal and the expectations for an accelerated rise in interest rates by the Fed.
As of March 31, the New York based Paulson Fund - Paulson & Co. has had 4.32 million shares in the largest stock-exchange SPDR Gold Shares. This, compared with 4.36 million shares of the fund in December.
Meanwhile, the Bridgewater Associates Fund also retains its stake in SPDR and iShares Gold Trust, the second largest gold-based index fund.
Gold appreciated by 1.7% in the first three months of this year, after the dollar fell for the fifth consecutive quarter. This helps the metals withstand the downward pressure on the Fed's interest rate hike.
In March, Paulson's gold fund, as well as its other funds, began to return capital to investors after their assets were down $9 billion from $38 billion in 2011.
Otherwise yesterday, gold marked a significant decline, returning below the psychological limit of $1,300 per ounce. Early this morning, the spot price of gold is at levels of about $1,294 per ounce.

Misalignment of raw materials, despite the weaker dollar

Despite the weaker dollar, commodities denominated in the US currency ended last week in a mixed fashion as investors narrowed their positions in gold and oil on the last day of the week.
Copper finished slightly on Friday in positive territory due to the weakness of the US dollar. A sharp drop in the price of aluminum has limited the growth of copper.
July's copper futures ended at 3.1115, or woth an increase of 0.05%. The price was supported in the past week by declining copper stocks, which, according to technical analysts, could take the price to 3.1215.
Gold closed slightly down on Friday, but still managed to record its first weekly increase of four weeks. The metal market was backed last week by the dollar depreciation and lower interest rates on US government bonds.
Among the investors, there is speculation that the Fed will not be as aggressive in its policy of raising interest rates.
Gold futures with delivery in June lost $1.6, or 0.12% to $1 320.7 per ounce.
The announcement of a meeting between the United States and North Korea, which will take place in Singapore, also leads to a reduction in geopolitical tensions and, accordingly, weighs on the price of gold.
Meanwhile, the price of oil has fallen from its highest levels for the past three and a half years, but continues to trade relatively close to them. US crude oil fell 0.63 cents, or 0.9%, while brent fell by 0.35 cents, or 0.45%.

Gold interrupted its three-day growth

Gold fell yesterday, interrupting its three-day growth after the dollar index returned to its highest levels since 2018. Poor employment data in the US has done little to change the direction of the dollar to strong growth.
We can not fail to note that the reason for the strong dollar is largely rooted in the weakness of other currencies. After extremely bad data on the growth of the British economy, the results of low inflation in the euro area have also become reality.
Or at the moment, investors are on the subject where the data is weaker. And the US economy looks far stronger than others, even in the light of a rise in interest rates and expected new Fed actions.
The spot price of gold fell 0.1 percent to $1,313 per ounce after the metal reached its highest level since April 30 at $1,318.85 per ounce. Gold futures with delivery in June declined by 0.1% to $1,314 per ounce.

Wells Fargo: Gold and silver in a bearish super-cycle

Bad news for investors in metals - like gold and silver. According to the Wells Fargo Investment Bank, gold and silver are in a super bearish cycle, which may last another five years.
And while analysts from the bank would not recommend an investment in either metal, in better position they think is the silver because it has a relatively higher upside potential, on a fundamental point of view.
The analysts from the bank are expecting a five-year cycle of bears, or something similar to the price of metals. This means a limited growth in metal prices and a lot of lateral movement in their price.
From the financial institution, they forecast a range in the price of gold between 1 050 and 1 400 dollars, while for gold - between 13 and 22 dollars.
For comparison, the price of gold ended on Friday at a rate of $1,323 per ounce, while the price of silver at $16.40.
Gold peaked in 2011, reaching a level of $1,900 per ounce, while the price of silver rose to the highest levels of $50 per ounce.
Gold is traded at levels of about 76 times, comparing to silver, at an historically average level of 37 times. Or the metal looks quite overrated compared to silver.

Gold is down

Quotes of gold were down on the trading session on Wednesday, reached a new local maximum at around $1318.75, after which they recovered to the level of $1323 per troy ounce by the end of the day. Strengthening of the US dollar against most other assets was the main reason for the decline in gold. However, quotes are still traded in the range 1300 - 1350, and any attempts to go beyond the corridor quickly fail.
Reduction of the price of gold within the range is also connected with the fall of geopolitical tension without the development of the conflict between the US, Syria and Russia, and also thanks to the statements of Donald Trump about possible agreements with China to end the trade war.
In my forecast for today I expect a further decline in gold quotations to support levels of 1320, 1318 and 1315 dollars per troy ounce.

How did the attacks in Syria influenced markets?

The markets opened after a weekend marked by military strikes in Syria. How did the markets react? Almost nohow...
Oil lost about 1% of its value, and gold and silver almost did not react, contrary to the expectations of many investors, that they would appreciate.
The yen, traditionally considered as a rescue island, in moments of crisis or geopolitical tension, is not traded in any significant change in its levels.
If we had to be objective, the biggest increase over the weekend were crypto-currencies. And this is increasingly asking the question - will the crypto-currencies turn into the "new gold"?
Otherwise, gold is traded at levels of $1 346 per ounce, and its rise continues to decline from a level of $1,360. The silver is at 16.65 dollars per ounce, and the brent is exchanged at 72.25 dollars. Early in the morning, the valuable raw material had fallen below the psychological limit of $72 a barrel.

Gold is guided by the dollar, but it is bullish

By the last decade of March, the value of gold recovered and returned to the target range of $1,350- $1,400 per troy ounce. On Monday, March 26, the precious metal was trading at $1,346.20 and slightly declining, but observing the behavior of the foreign exchange market, gold has a chance to continue the rising channel.
The main driver for the precious metal is the behavior of the US dollar. If the greenback continues to fall, gold will rush to the highs of last winter to levels $1364- $1365 per troy ounce. If for the greenback there are options to stabilize in the euro/dollar pair, gold will consolidate in a wide range of $1330- $1345. The nearest significant resistance levels are at $1354 and $1360, and support levels at $1,330 and $1305.

Gold still falling

Quotations of gold futures fell during Asian trade on Tuesday. At COMEX, the division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for April delivery are traded at a price of $1.321.70 per troy ounce. The support now is at $1.313.20 and resistance is at $1.329.80.
Futures on the USD index, showing the ratio of the US dollar to the basket of the six major currencies, rose by 0.06% and is trading at around $89.94. As for other commodities traded on COMEX, silver futures for delivery in May decreased by 0.01%, reaching $16.535 per troy ounce, while copper futures for delivery in May decreased by 0.03%, reaching the level of $3.120 per pound.

Draghi pushed the dollar up, dragged the gold down

Gold has fallen, and the dollar has risen since its three-week minimum against the euro after ECB chief Mario Draghi signaled that any normalization of monetary policy would be very "smooth" and "gradual".
The single currency recorded a significant decline over all major currencies, following Draggy's comments.
Draghi also said that inflation is still weak, which is likely to predict a slight change in ECB policy.
The spot price of gold fell 0.3 percent to $ 1 321.09 per ounce. It reached a one-week high of $ 1,340.42 an ounce on Wednesday before closing 0.6% down. Gold futures fell 0.4 percent to $ 1,321.80.
According to Georgette Boyle, an analyst at ABN Amro, the dollar will remain a key driver of the gold price. The only reason the gold price rose to $ 1,340 per ounce was the weakness of the US currency last week, the analyst said.

Gold fell on Wednesday

Gold also fell on Wednesday, due to fears of a trade war and the resignation of Trump's economic adviser. Since its rise from the previous days, as a result of political instability, the noble metal has fallen to trade levels from $ 1,325 per ounce.

This happened despite the observed decline in dollar levels compared to other major currencies. The euro, for example, rose to levels above 1.2400 this week, staying permanently above this limit, and seems likely to attack the next key level at 1.2500.