Wednesday, 28 June 2017

Trading Tools: Pivot Points Indicator by ActivTrades

My favorite broker ActivTrades provides its customers with the very useful add-on: Pivot Points Indicator is a sophisticated indicator designed to help traders make well-targeted trading decisions.
Professional traders often use pivot points as an indicator of the forecast of market movements. The company ActivTrades developed its famous indicator with 3 levels of support and resistance for the MetaTrader 4 and MetaTrader 5 platforms.
 The lines on the chart represent reversal points (orange) and support and resistance levels (blue, brown and green). If the price is higher than the reversal point, the market is usually considered to be "bullish", and at a price below the turning point the market is usually called "bearish". Support and resistance levels help determine the potential levels of the current market trend reversal.

For more information and to request, click here.

Tuesday, 27 June 2017

The bitcoin begins the week with a fall

The start of the week was not particularly positive for the bitcoin. Crypto currency dropped by 4.4% to $2,480 on the first day of the new week. This was the lowest value of the bitcoin for the last week.
Bitcoin sales on Monday became reality in the absence of substantial news. But this may have something to do with the flash crash at the ethereum last week, when the currency fell momentarily from $296 to $0.10.
The reluctance of the stock exchange, where this happened, is that investor losses as a result of a crash will be restored.
Since Wednesday last week, the bitcoin has already dropped by 9.5%. Its loss from the top, at about $3,000, is about 20%.
The weakness of the currency is to a large extent predetermined by China's three largest exchanges, where cash withdrawals became reality for the first time since April.
The bitcoin was named "bubble" by the intrepreneur Mark Kuban, and Goldman Sachs said we can see a currency adjustment of up to$ 1,915 on the basis of technical analysis.
Another serious question mark before the bitcoin is whether the two state index funds based on it will receive approval after the initial refusal to be licensed. This decision is currently being appealed before a higher court.

Monday, 26 June 2017

Those affected by flash crash with the ethereum will be compensated

There is much talk about what happened with the ethereum at the end of last week. As a result of an instant crash at the price of the virtual currency, which became a reality at 12:30 pm on June 21, the price of the ethereum fell momentarily from $296 to $0.10.
The good news is that the GDAX exchange, where the flash crisis with the ethereum happened, will recover the losses of all investors as a result of the momentary decline, whose positions have been closed due to a margin call.
From GDAX claim that they will establish a process of crediting the accounts of customers who have experienced a margin call or whose loss-limiting orders have been triggered as a result of the downward depreciation of the ethereum.
At the same time, they will leave the positions of those who bought the ethereum at low prices as a result of waiting orders.
What is the conclusion?
The momentary price depression definitely did not affect many investors, and there were not many those who benefited. Otherwise, hardly on the stock exchange they could afford to cover the losses at all.
Apparently GDAX has calculated that the value of the loss is tolerable because their initial comments were that customers would not be compensated.
Since the beginning of the year, the ethereum has risen by 3,700%.

Friday, 23 June 2017

Laszlo Birinyi: S & P 500 at 2,500 points to September

Laszlo Birinyi, one of the most stable bulls in the eight-year rally of US indices raised its forecast for the broad US index S&P 500. According to him the index will rise to a level of 2 500 points to September.
73-year-old president of Birinyi Associates Inc. said his company would buy call index-based options to benefit from the potential increase, according to a letter sent to customers on Monday.
Early in the year, Birinyi predicted that the broad index would rise to 2 450 points by June. The index overtakes this level this week, rising to the highest value of 2 453 points.
The expert's opinion is largely counter to the expectations of the majority of Wall Street analysts that the rise in US indices is likely to stop.
According to Birinyi, however, strong demand for shares at times of sell-offs is a bullish sign.
Birinyi is expected to buy call options on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF with payment is in September and a $250 strike at a price of $2.29, says the letter to customers.
The forecast is in fact an expectation of a 5% growth for the index, compared to its average for the past 50 days.

Thursday, 22 June 2017

Doug Kass: We are ready for a serious correction

The big investor Doug Kass, expressed his opinion on the market, in a unique way.
"At the risk of sounding stupid (and mistaken), I do not like the market and its movement," said Kass in a statement.
A serious imbalance in closing markets last week, coupled with a forthcoming holiday and early month, triggered a late recovery of US indices and new records, Kass commented.
In case of serious instability of the FANG group companies, I position myself aggressively for a market correction - something that few investors and experts even think possible.
Last week, Kass raised serious questions about the letters "A" and "N" in the so-called FANG group. That is to the shares of Amazon and Netflix. The first reached new historical records at levels already above $1,000 at the beginning of the new week.
Surviving the previous technological boom and shortening technology companies during the "Internet bubble," in the late 1990s, Cass definitely believed he had "watched this movie before".
Analyzing the current situation causes Kass to believe that all investors, with the exception of "older fools," may be misled by the current trend of forming a "speculative bubble."
Kass believes that companies such as Facebook and Alphabet, given their prospects of good future growth, can not be considered expensive, although they would be limited to buying them at their current levels.
The expert predicts a 30% increase in profits before taxes and fees over the next few years. For Google, the forecast is for a 15% growth per year. What is more important, according to Kass, is that both companies generate stable cash inflows.
With regard to Amazon and Netflix, however, ratings are quite another. Kass said he would have avoided both companies.

Wednesday, 21 June 2017

Bernard Arnault: A bubble is formed that will burst

Bernard Arnault, the executive director of the multinational luxury goods company LVMH, has warned the world economy, which has to scare all investors seriously.
He thinks that the economic climate in the current situation is terrible in the medium term.  The billionaire made this statement in interview for the CNBC financial magazine on June 15th.
Arnault substantiates his opinion with high stock prices, low interest rates, and the volume of money that flows globally.
In his opinion, a bubble is being formed that will explode one day.
Arnault did not specify the time he expects the difficulties to happen, but said it could be soon because the last crisis was in 2008, and similar crises happen traditionally every 10 years.
In terms of his long-term horizon, however, the billionaire is optimistic, referring to advances in technology, which will ultimately help the world economy recover.

The oil officially entered the bearish market. Next target - $30

Oil has officially entered the bearish market after its fall yesterday. Poll Siana from Bank of America Merrill Lynch, commented in an interview with CNBC that based on graphics, oil may be headed for a level of $30 a barrel. These are levels unprecedented since April last year.
According to the technical analyst, the depreciation of oil can in practice serve as a rally for the bond markets. There is a backward movement between bond prices and oil, so if this dependence continues, the depreciation of oil can lead to a rise in bond prices.
In addition, stocks may also be in trouble if the price of oil falls. While there is no direct correlation between the potential oil depreciation and index levels, such a decrease could potentially exacerbate a possible correction for the indices.
Not very positive is the situation for oil and on the basis of a fundament. In fact, demand for oil may drop in the summer.
Since the beginning of the year, the price of oil has fallen by 19%, mainly due to increased US stocks and OPEC's inability to limit supply.
US crude oil traded at levels of 43.50 earlier this morning.

Tuesday, 20 June 2017

Gold is cheaper in a background of a rising dollar and record indices

New records for US indices did not particularly affect gold. Investors dropped the metal, demanding higher returns and a "high security" environment.
There is another fact about the calm of the market. The continuing decline in the volatility index of the Chicago stock exchange.
Otherwise, gold futures with delivery in August lost $9.8 in value, or 0.8% to $1,246.70. It was the seventh consecutive closure of a negative territory for gold, from the last nine sessions.
The Fed's policy of normalizing interest rates also had a negative impact on gold.
In addition, US indices reached new record highs yesterday and the US dollar appreciated.

Saturday, 17 June 2017

The Fed's comments sent the gold down

The Fed's comments, which directed investors to another interest rate hike by the end of this year, have seriously damaged the price of gold. Gold registered on Thursday its lowest closing since May 25.
The dollar appreciated against the rest of the major currencies, and with that, the price of gold diminished.
The noble metal lost at one point on Thursday over 1.5% of its value and traded at levels of $1,260 per ounce. Earlier on Friday, the metal continued its decline and traded at $1,252 per ounce.
Traditionally, metals are declining when the Fed resorts to a rise in interest rates. It was precisely such an action that took place on Wednesday, raising the short-term interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.25% on an annual basis.
According to some analysts, the Fed may raise interest rates at least twice more by the end of the year.

DB: Sell in the summer, the next 5% move is more likely to be downwards

Wondering what to trade in the summer? The largest German financial institution - Deutsche Bank has an idea. And it is - sell in the summer, because according to analysts of the bank, the next 5% movement for the US indices will be down.
The rise of the indices is so far justified, but from the bank believe it has reached its limits in the short term and the market may be tense in connection with potential dramatic decisions by Congress.
State legislators will most likely present significant changes to tax legislation that will lead to simplification of the system. Still, it is not clear when such changes will come into force. It is very likely that they will not materialize after August.
Deutsche Bank also said it was reducing its stock expectations. In line with their expectations for the direction of the S&P 500, from the bank practically reduce their tactical exposure to US stocks from 70 to 60%.

Friday, 16 June 2017

Oil below $45 a barrel

Oil fell back on Wednesday as a result of negative inputs from the IEA. After publishing moderately optimistic forecasts of "balancing" the market in recent months, the International Energy Agency has expressed concerns that this may take longer because of the accumulated record stocks.
The report comes the same week in which OPEC published its monthly report on the state of the market. It caused serious sales of the raw material as a result of the data that the cartel has increased its production last month. The OPEC report also concludes that the market is recovering at a "slower pace" than expected.
The reason for the depreciation of "black gold" in recent weeks is the growing US state producer and US oil stocks, the weaker demand for gasoline.
At a level of 292 million barrels, oil reserves in the US are significantly above the average for the past five years.

Will the correction of bitcoin continue?

The bitcoin and the other crypto-currencies marked a significant decline yesterday. After the cost of the bitcoin reached a historic record of $3,000 at the weekend, it recorded a substantial correction to levels of just under $2,300 yesterday. Or a drop of over 20% within two days.
And while the currency returns some of the lost and is traded today at $2,400, its decline has once again reminded investors that the direction of markets or assets is not just upward.
In fact, investors trading with a margin of 5 times and buying a stake at $3,000 in fact may have lost their funds now, in just three days.
Even if we witness a serious return and above the peak of $3,000, it is completely possible that the virtual currency correction is not over. Practice shows that adjustments usually last for several weeks and that the next bad news or a negative commentary from a leading financial institutions could increase the depreciation.

Wednesday, 14 June 2017

ActivTrades: Inside news

My favorite broker ActivTrades provides its clients market analysis every day allowing traders and investors to make informed decisions and improve their trading performance
In today’s article, Activtrades analyst Carlo De Casa gives a very good fundamental and technical view about the pound development.

You can find the analysis following this link.

Saturday, 10 June 2017

More accelerated eurozone growth than expected

The economy of the eurozone registered a faster growth than forecast in the past quarter, show data released on Thursday.
Quarterly growth rose to 0.6% in the first quarter, down from previous 0.5% growth forecast. On an annual basis, the eurozone gained 1.9%.
Household spending rose by 0.3% in the first three months of the year, on a quarterly basis, contributing to 0.2 percentage points of the economy's rise.
Investments have risen by 1.3% or contributed to another 0.3 percentage point of growth.
The data becomes reality before the ECB meeting and Mario Draghi's statement on the future policy of the central bank on interest rates.
Still, the bank left the policy unchanged.

Friday, 9 June 2017

Gross: US markets have not been so risky since 2008

Risks to US markets are the highest since the financial crisis in 2008, according to the former "King of Bonds" - Bill Gross. Gross is currently managing the bond fund Janus Henderson Global Unconstrained Bond Fund, which has assets of $2 billion.
"Instead of buying low and selling high, you are buying high and squeezing your thumbs," Gross said before Bloomberg Financial News yesterday.
Politics of ultra-low interest on the part of central banks around the world artificially raise the cost of financial assets, the genial investor thinks.
The US economy is expected to grow 2.2% this year and 2.3% next year. Trump's administration promised to boost the economy's growth to 3%.
Despite high asset prices, however, Gross feels forced to invest in the market in some closed-end funds. As an example, he provides the Duff & Phelps Global Utility Income and Nuveen Preferred Income Opportunities.
Gross commented that he holds about 2 to 3% of his assets in index funds for profitability and diversification.
The Gross Fund has earned investors 3.1% for the year to 6 June, exceeding 22% of its competitors. The Fund's total return is 5.4% since Gross took over its management in October of 2014.
The big liquidity in the system is the factor that determines the strong appreciation of the fund assets, Gross said. In a world of negative interest, investors desperately need some return that seeks risky investments.
Low volatility requires low risks, says Gross.

The pound may fall to 1.20

The Big News of the Day - Early parliamentary elections in the UK. Experts say the big election victim may be the pound. It may fall to 1.20, a level unseen since January, if the election does not elicit a clear winner.
It can be summed up that Theresa May's idea of ​​calling early elections even in the light of potential loss is not determined by investors as the better way for the pound.
Analysts also comment that the prospects for "tough EU exit talks" could boost the downward pressure on the pound in the medium term.
It has now become clear that May's party leads in the election but will not be able to win a stable majority.
In the absence of a clear winner, uncertainty is expected to increase significantly. For this scenario, expert estimates range in the widest range from the lowest expectations for 1.20 to 1.2350 average.

Thursday, 8 June 2017

Gold continues to rise steadily

Gold futures continued to grow as investors kept their strong demand for rescue assets.
Metal futures with delivery in August added $12.1, or 0.9% to a level of $1,294.80 per ounce. This was the highest metal price since April 18th.
Why Investors Buy Gold?
Purchases take place shortly before the early parliamentary elections in the UK on 8 June.
In addition, the former FBI head is in the process of hearing, which could seriously raise investor concerns about Donald Trump's controversial actions.
We can not fail to mention the forthcoming ECB interest rate meeting as well as the increased tensions in the Middle East with regard to the allegations of Qatar that it supports terrorist organizations.
Interestingly, the rise in rescue assets comes at a time when the fear index continues to trade at levels close to the lowest for the past 30 years.
Or investors who believe that gold may continue to rise as a result of increasing uncertainty can safely look at the VIX index.

Oil with the largest decline since March

Oil decrease in price of 5% yesterday after surprise growth in oil and petroleum inventories yesterday was the biggest since March.
Data showed the biggest increase in diesel and petrol reserves in the world's largest economy since 2008 last week. The surge in inventories by 15.5 million, surprised investors seriously.
Adding to this is the reduced fuel demand of 505,000 barrels a day and the oil situation is not particularly positive.
The Middle East crisis linked to Qatar has failed to lead to a sustained rise in oil prices.
US crude oil ended yesterday at a level of $46 a barrel, trading early this morning, nearly 15 cents higher.
There are more and more marketers who say that $40 in the short term are much more likely than $50 a barrel.
As we can see, OPEC's production constraints have failed to stabilize the price of oil and lead to its steady rise.

Friday, 2 June 2017

Williams: The Fed aims to keep the markets stable

The state economy is close, or the Fed targeted level of full employment and stable prices, said Fed San Francisco head John Williams. Williams also added that the central bank's goal is to ensure the peace of the financial markets, with a gradual return to the normal interest rate policy.
According to the financial expert, the volatility is the last wanted thing to feed.
Employment in the US is at full employment, and inflation is expected to reach 2% target by the Fed by the end of next year. In such an environment, the Fed will most likely continue with its policy of normalizing interest rates. If the reserve does not do that, it risks the US economy "overheating seriously," Williams added.
The Fed raised the interest rate in March for the third time since the end of the financial crisis. Investors expect to witness two more interest rises by the end of this year, one of which is likely next month.
According to Williams, it is normal for the Fed to resort to a reduction in its balance sheet.