Wednesday, 27 December 2017

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Volatile crypto

The US investment bank, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., is preparing a trading desk to become a market maker for cryptocurrencies trading, according to sources.
Such an action would not be a big surprise, given the comments coming from the bank and related to cryptocurrencies, over the past few months.
According to the same sources, GS aims to enter the business with a bitcoin by the end of June next year.
Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies prices continue with their incredible volatility. The bitcoin lost nearly 15 percent of its value last week, the bitcoin cache also hit serious losses after it added 40 percent to its value and reached levels over $3,700 for a coin.
To a new historic record rose and the ripple, which overtook the psychological limit of $1, reaching levels of about $ 1.10.
With about 10%, the price of the lightcoin has fallen. It traded before Christmas at levels of about 280 dollars per coin. Pressure on the cryptocurrency appeared after the news that the lightcoin founder had sold all his coins.

Tuesday, 26 December 2017

The Japanese central bank kept interest rates unchanged

The Japanese central bank kept interest rates unchanged. Members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted 8 to one for this decision.
The central bank also said the economy is growing moderately. And while the inflation rate remains below the Bank's targets, there has been substantial progress in price growth. Central bankers are of the opinion that this trend in inflation will remain.
The central bank's inflation target is at a 2% unreachable level at this stage.
The Japanese economy is growing moderately, the financial institution said in a press release at the end of a two-day meeting at which interest rates were kept at a negative value of minus 0.1%.
Consumer price growth stood at 0.8% in October on an annual basis, following an increase of 0.7% in September. The world's third largest economy is expected to grow 2.5% in the three months to September on an annual basis.
The decision of the Japanese bank did not surprise the market. The dollar continued to trade without any significant change over the Japanese yen after the decision at levels of about 113.42 yen per dollar.

Merry Christmas!

May this Christmas be bright, blessed and full of love.
I wish you peace, health, wealth and joy.

Have great holidays!

Wednesday, 20 December 2017

Will the Australian Dollar fall below $0.70?

Two of Australia's largest asset managers are arguing about whether the Australian currency will break the psychological limit of 70 US cents.
The Australian dollar will fall below this level by the middle of next year if Australian government bond interest rates fall below the US bond yields, according to analysts from QIC Ltd., managig assets worth $63 billion.
On the other hand, according to analysts from AMP Capital Investors Ltd., managing assets worth $137 billion, the Australian dollar will hold above the 70-cent psychological limit due to the strong growth of the Chinese economy, Australia's main trading partner.
The Australian dollar declined by about 6 per cent on its highest value in September after the two-year Australian bond premium fell for the past month against the US for the first time since 2000.
In addition, mixed economic data in the country is expected to cause the Australian central bank to refrain from raising interest rates, which are currently at a record low of 1.5%.
For the last time, the Australian dollar traded below 70 cents to the US in February of 2016.

Fluctuating dollar following the announcement of the tax cuts in the US

The dollar appreciated against most currencies on Tuesday, thanks to optimistic data from US building permits, but profits were limited by doubts about the overall impact of the country's main tax revision plan. The Republican Chamber of Deputies approved a large-scale tax bill on Tuesday, then the bill passed through the Senate and was approved. The majority in the US Senate is Republican, and this has made it easier to accept the project.
Green money rose against the yen, and against the euro depreciated after parliament approved the bill.
At the beginning of the session, the dollar appreciated as US housing data reported a 13-month high in November, while data on single-family houses struck a 10-year high. At the end of the session, green money was 0.28% higher against the yen to 112.85 yen. The euro grew slightly against the euro, with the single currency closing the session at 1.18399, which is 0.51% higher than on Monday.

Tuesday, 19 December 2017

Oil - where in 2018?

Brent's price is expected to be at an average of $60 a barrel next year and US crude oil at $55 a barrel. At least according to the analysts' average expectations.
Experts predict a drop in oil prices. By comparison, the Brent is currently traded at about $64 a barrel, and US crude oil is close to $58 a barrel.
A major engine in the price of oil in the coming year is expected to continue to be the US industry and more specifically the direction of the key manufacturers.
The production constraints, which came in the direction of OPEC and Russia, largely predetermined the appreciation of oil on international commodity markets. However, it is quite possible to change the following year.
Net short positions rose for the ninth consecutive week and reached record levels. That is, most of the major oil operators are likely to insure their future production against a potential oil price depression.
Much of the US oil producer has futures contracts for the end of the third quarter last year at an average price of $48.95 a barrel.
Of course, there is a danger of further rising oil prices, given the record short positions in futures, warn some market observers.
The US Energy Ministry predicts a production increase of up to 10 million barrels per day next year, which would be record in US manufacturing history. If this figure is reached, it is entirely possible for the price of "black gold" to be logically put to serious testing.

Monday, 18 December 2017

JPM: The S&P 500 targets 3,000 in 2018

Tax reforms will continue to support the growth of US markets. This is the opinion of financial experts from the US financial institution JPM.
The US bank analyst team expects the US indices to perform well. For this, Trump's tax reform may help, which, is extremely close to acceptance.
Stable growth, weak monetary policy, low interest rates and taxes will be among the factors that will lead to a rise in US indices next year. The goal of the broad US S&P 500 is expected to reach the psychological limit of 3,000 points in the next year.
Of course, there are analysts who are not as positive about the future of the indices. According to some, next year, though good for investors in general, may be related to risks.

US indices ended in new records

US indices reached new historical records, awaiting the introduction of tax reform next week.
The S&P 500 indice, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq 100 Stock Index closed at historic records after it became clear that the final tax reforms will be presented late Friday, and a vote for their approval is expected next week.
Russell 2000 Index's Index for Small Businesses saw the ninth consecutive growth for the last 10 sessions, precisely following the expected reforms.
Still, there are some uncertainties about the final version of the tax reforms and whether they will not undergo any changes.
The S&P 500 rose 0.9 percent to a level of 2,675.63 points or the highest closing level in its history. The Nasdaq 100 added 1.2% and Nasdaq Composite added 1.2% to its value.

Wednesday, 13 December 2017

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Tuesday, 12 December 2017

Jamie Dimon: I'm open to cryptocurrencies... But regulated!

The bitcoin is everywhere in the news and in the media. Apparently this puts a serious strain on Jamie Dimon, who, apart from being terribly wrong in his forecast for the bitcoin (at least for now, claiming it is a balloon that will end up much worse than tulip mania) when it was 6000 dollars, said he would have fired each of his company, which traded with cryptocurrencies.
Goldman Sachs, which are expected to be one of the major market makers of the bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, have benefited from this.
Dimon, said he was still skeptical about his bitcoin and its future, but he had definitely softened his tone.
Dimon's last comments are definitely far more different than before. About a month ago, he said that if you're stupid enough to buy it, you'll pay the price for it one day, when the price of the cryptocurrenciy was about $5,800.
Since then, the bitcoin has risen to more than $19,000, last trading at just over $15,000.
Although Dimon said in September that the bitcoin was a scam, he did not even deny that the cryptocurrency could safely rise to $100,000 before it reached its peak.

The Brent with the highest price since 2015

Brent has risen to its highest levels since 2015 today, after an unplanned closure to repair a North Sea pipeline. This has resulted in serious supply difficulties and has helped to raise the cost of raw material.
The Brent with delivery in the next month traded at $64.73 a barrel early this morning.
Raw material has begun to rise before the meeting of OPEC, which reached agreement to extend production constraints by the end of next year. The decision was also backed by Russia.
However, this time, unlike the previous one, OPEC's decision did not lead to a sharp depreciation of the price of "black gold."
More and more analysts are starting to talk about a price of 70 or even $80 a barrel next year. The good performance of the global economy and the possible depreciation of the dollar may be the factors that will predict similar high prices.
Brent peaked yesterday, at $64.93 a barrel, or its highest price since June 2015.
US crude oil was traded at $57.98 a barrel.

Monday, 11 December 2017

Credit Suisse: It's time to buy technology companies

News related to US tax reform has led to a serious downsizing of technology companies. And according to Jonathan Golub, an analyst at Credit Suisse, the time for purchases may have occurred.
Information becomes more and more about tax cuts, and investors now have more clarity. This led the US indices to new records, with investors shifting from technology to industrial and financial companies.
Last week we saw growth in consumer, financial and industrial companies and a decline in technology ones.
Technological companies generally outperformed the market this year, and will probably continue to do so next year, says Goleb.
Golub also pointed out that technology companies are traded at a slightly higher ratio than other companies. The cost-benefit ratio for technology companies is 19.8, while the S&P 500's is currently 18.2.

Gold with its biggest weekly decline since May

Gold prices stabilized on Friday, but recorded its biggest weekly decline since May, after better-than-expected US employment data. The data strengthened investors' expectations that we will see an increase in interest rates in December.
This, in turn, has led to an appreciation of the dollar, to which the price of gold is very sensitive.
Over the past week, gold has overcome the lower limit of the range that has been trading since July. This helps to increase the decrease of the metal.
The spot price of gold ended late last week with a minimum increase of 0.1% to 1 247.50 dollars per ounce. This was close to the lowest value of $1 243.71 per ounce, or its lowest level since July 26. The metal lost 2.5% of its value this week, which was the third consecutive price depreciation.

Thursday, 7 December 2017

What can happen if Trump is removed (2)?

An initial reaction in such a scenario would be the suspension of the so-called Trump Rally, which has taken the US indices to new historical records, according to Peter Kenny, chief strategist at the Global Markets Advisory Group. The expert commented that the investors really felt comfortable about what to expect from Trump as president.
Fundamentally, the US economy remains in good shape in an environment of low inflation and steady growth. Meanwhile, Trump's nomination for Jerome Powell's fed leader has won the admiration of market players.
It is possible, after the initial shock to the market, with a potential removal of Trump, that markets quickly find support, Kenny said. Pens, is likely to continue with Trump's planned tax policies, as well as the nominated Powell.
Or, according to a number of experts, such political uncertainty can be short-lived and quickly overcome. And if you follow Buffett's advice - to buy when everyone is afraid, a deeper adjustment of the indices, could provide good opportunities for investors to enter the market.

Wednesday, 6 December 2017

What can happen if Trump is removed (1)?

Financial markets have experienced a difficult Friday last week. The leading US indices dropped momentarily after it became clear that Michael Flynn admitted he had lied in the testimony given to the FBI and could provide new evidence of inappropriate relations between President Trump and Russia.
What could happen?
The chances for President Trump to step down from his post are rising. This could be the worst scenario for investors because it would lead to serious political uncertainty at a time when stock prices rose seriously in anticipation of Trump's tax reform. The latter, however, is delayed and there are serious chances not to become a reality since the beginning of next year, as were the real expectations of investors.
There is a real opportunity for Washington to turn to its biggest crisis since the Watergate scandal in the early 1970s. At the same time, when Trump is removed, he is expected to be replaced by current Vice President Mike Pens, who would become premature the 46th US president.
And while this still seems like a fairly unlikely scenario, more and more investors are beginning to wonder, what would President Pens mean for the US stock markets?

Tuesday, 5 December 2017

Oil with a slight increase in expectations of US stocks report

Oil prices rose slightly today due to expectations of a decline in oil stocks in the United States and after the OPEC deal last week to extend production constraints.
The Brent with delivery next month added nearly one percent to its value, to a level of $63 a barrel.
US crude oil is traded in the morning at $57.40 a barrel or with no significant change from yesterday's levels.
Last week, OPEC countries agreed to continue their production restrictions at 1.8 million barrels by the end of next year. This, however, was not followed by much reaction to the price of oil.
According to Goldman Sachs analysts, Saudi Arabia and Russia have shown a strong will to continue the production constraints by lowering their forecasts for the price of Brent and US crude oil to 62 and 57.5 dollars respectively.

Monday, 4 December 2017

GS: The bitcoin is a raw material

The bitcoin is more like gold than the US dollar, according to Jeff Curry, head of the Goldman Sachs State Investment Bank unit, in a special interview for Bloomberg TV.
The bitcoin does not have the same amount of liquidity as gold, which is the main difference with the metal.
According to Curry, the price of the bitcoin is determined by the market and is not supported by a government, public or private company, just like gold.
Of course, the bitcoin is much more volatile than gold, and Curry explains that liquidity is the main reason for that. There are $8.3 trillion amount of gold worldwide, while the market capitalization of the bitcoin is close to $165 billion, making it much less liquid and more volatile.
Curry's comments come true after the cost of the bitcoin reached levels of more than $11,000, and then fell only a day later to less than $10,000. They come at a time when Goldman Sachs chief Lloyd Blenkheim said he is still considering the possibility of a bitcoin.
The meteoric appreciation of the bitcoin raised public interest in cryptocurrency to record levels.

Demand for gold rose after the political events in the US

Political developments in the US since the end of last week have prompted investors to raise demand for "rescue assets".
The gold has taken advantage of the situation and has appreciated. The noble metal added 1% of its value to levels above $1,290 per ounce.
More and more experts are beginning to talk about testing a psychological limit of $1,300. The last level has been limiting the growth of the metal over the past few months. If level will overcome, however, we can very quickly see a further appreciation for the yellow metal to $1,350, and later to $1,400.
The rise became a fact after former Donald Trump's security advisor Michael Flynn said he was ready to testify about unlawful ties between Trump and Russia.
The report raised fears that Trump may soon not be the president of the United States, leading to serious political and economic shocks.

Wednesday, 29 November 2017

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Jerome Powell expects interest rates to rise further

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and President Donald Trump's nominee for Fed's head of office expects interest rates to continue rising from their current levels.
According to him, the FED's goal is to maintain a strong labor market and to move inflation to target levels. In this regard, FED expects the interest rates to rise further from their current values ​​and the size of the balance to gradually decrease.
Powell also said that the Fed's objectives would continue to maintain strong financial system, with financial and regulatory reforms being gradually made.
The key question facing Paul is most likely - how the Fed will continue to sustain and stimulate the third longest expansion in US history and how far the planned regulatory relief for the financial system will be stretched.
While Janet Yelan inherited a relatively weak state economy, still aware of the effects of the debt crisis, Powell will inherit a rather strong economy.
Powell also said that if he was appointed to the post, he would continue to support the growth and progress of the economy to full recovery.

Tuesday, 28 November 2017

T. Horwitz: Oil is going to be $40, more than over $60

The current rise in oil prices is more a consequence of trading fears of not losing growth as a result of what is happening in the Middle East than a result of OPEC policy, according to Todd Hovitz, chief strategist at Bubatracking.com, quoted by Bloomberg.
Oil premiums are very close to futures, which means that rising oil prices is more of a fear, the expert added.
OPEC and non-cartel countries supporting production cuts are expected to meet in Vienna on 30 November to discuss the continuation of the agreement.
According to Horwitz, the price of oil has little potential for rise from now on. US crude oil, at $58 a barrel, is expected to provide a strong incentive for shale producers to recover supply and are expected to put new downward pressure on oil prices.
There is a better chance for US crude to return to levels of about 40 dollars than to raise to over 60 dollars, the analyst said.

Monday, 27 November 2017

The dollar is the cheapest against the euro since September 25th

The US dollar declined to its lowest level since September 25 against the euro, registering a third consecutive weekly loss.
Concerns that the Fed may not respond to the increased market expectations in terms of the numbers of increases in interest rates have largely determined the depreciation of the US currency.
The US continues to face the dangers of low inflation, even though it operates in full employment.
The dollar index fell 0.39%, reaching the lowest value in two months, at 92.781 points. The index was down 0.9% in the past week.
The euro appreciated by 0.7% at the end of last week, reaching a level of 1.1927 dollars, compared to 1.1850 Thursday. This was the first breach of 1.19 by the end of September. The euro appreciated 1.1% last week.

Hedge funds use the highest leverage since 2015

US hedge funds take up more money to buy shares after the signals of increased dependence between the direction of the US economy and their chosen companies.
Leverage among managers speculating for growth or a decline in stock prices rose this month, near its highest levels of bullish market that began in 2009, according to data from Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
Increased use of borrowed money means that professional managers tend to take more risk after eight years of growth in markets. And while leverage brings greater losses if stock prices are declining, the downward movement this year was minimal.
The broad US state index S&P 500 has its longest series without a 3% correction or more in its history. Apparently hedge funds assume that this trend of good performance will continue.

Thursday, 23 November 2017

Deutsche Bank: Watch out for the bitcoin

Deutsche Bank's traders warned their clients to avoid the bitcoin as an investment. Thus, the largest German bank was another major financial institution that indirectly declared war on the cryptocurrency.
Ulrich Stefan, chief investment strategist at the German bank, just would not recommend this to the daily investor, as he said  yesterday.
Stefan has argued that volatility or changes in bitcoin prices are too great, and the regulation of the instrument is too low. He added that German investors are not among the most active in cryptocurrencies so far, but the chimeras associated with the bitcoin are becoming more and more intense.
The bitcoin went beyond the psychological level of $8,000 for the first time during the weekend, and since then has traded permanently above that limit. Its latest trading levels are about $8,200. Increasingly, experts are expecting the cryptocurrency up to $10,000, or even more.
It should be borne in mind, however, that since the beginning of the year, the bitcoin has risen eight times. This has led to repeated warnings that the digital currency is a balloon, including renowned names in the financial world - like Jamie Dimon.
However, individual investors, as well as some hedge funds, are increasingly looking at the bitcoin.
The Swedish Central Bank, for example, is one of the organizations that look at the potential of block technology, its possible wider implementation.

Decline for US indices yesterday

US indices dropped yesterday, with technology and energy companies struggling to dominate the market. The technological index dropped by 0.37% and the energy added 0.44% to its value.
Oil prices rose 1.5% to support energy companies. This happened after the US oil reserves fell in line with market participants' expectations.
Undoubted impact on the market was Yellen's speech at the University of New York. Yelan has suggested that the number of increases in interest rates in the coming year may be lower than expected.
The broad US index S&P 500 rose by about 16% this year. Yesterday the index failed to close above the psychological limit of 2,600 points.
Investors and analysts, however, are raising their expectations for index performance next year, with expectations for a two-digit rise in the index.
Traded volumes were minimal before Thanksgiving today and early closing on Friday. The Volatility Index (VIX) declined for the fifth trading session in a row, being close to its lowest levels for 23 years.
Technological companies were driven by a fall in Hewlett Packard Enterprise's stock of 7.8%, or their biggest decline since 2015. This happened after company manager Meg Whitman announced that she would step down from her post in February next year.

Wednesday, 22 November 2017

MS: The Australian dollar may fall to 65 US cents

The Australian dollar may fall to its lowest level against the USD since the financial crisis, according to Morgan Stanley forecasts.
The Australian dollar may fall to 65 US cents in 2019, after the Australian central bank's interest rates are expected to fall below those in the US, according to Hans Redeker, an analyst at the bank.
As Australian interest rates fall below those of the US, the currency of the country will break its correlation with the other currencies of developing countries, says Redeker.
The weakness of the Australian currency will also be largely predetermined by competition coming from the currencies of developed countries that attract investor's interest as a source of security.
The additional interest rate of 10-year Australian bonds over that of 10-year US bonds was at 19 basis points yesterday after reaching the 16-year minimum of 15 basis points in June.
The last time the spread between the two interest rates was so small was in 2001, when the Australian dollar fell to 47.76 cents.

UBS: The dollar is heading for a difficult 2018

The US currency will most likely be disappointing next year against the euro, despite the expected continued interest rate hike by the Fed, according to experts from UBS.
The Fed is expected to raise the interest rate three times in the following year. Traditionally an increase in interest is assumed to be good for the US currency, so the forecast is a bit surprising.
Since the beginning of the year, the euro has risen by 11.5% against the dollar.
The financial institution's strategists believe that, fundamentally, the euro remains cheap and a better performance of European economies should channel a further appreciation of the single currency.
The bank expects the dollar to perform well against the Canadian dollar and the Japanese yen next year. The outlook for inflation in Canada remains weak, so the recent appreciation of the Canadian currency may have exhausted its strength.
Strengthening the power of the current Japanese Prime Minister will most likely trigger a further policy of incentives and low interest rates by the central bank. So, the weakness of the Japanese currency is likely to continue with full force, according to UBS.

Tuesday, 21 November 2017

Short sellers are returning to oil

Once bull bets on brent have reached a historic record and commodity futures have risen to two-year highs, hedge funds are beginning to believe that growth has peaked.
Bets on falling oil prices rose most since June. This, as tensions in the Middle East began to normalize and investors again began to reduce expectations for a unified OPEC position with regard to future production constraints.
Hedge funds have cut their net long positions in Brent by 1% to 537,557 contracts for the week to November 14. At the same time, short stakes have risen by 8.7%.
More and more experts say that oil may not have come out of its range, as OPEC countries are asking for. Or it is entirely possible that the price of oil will return to levels of about 60 dollars per barrel.

Friday, 17 November 2017

L. Fink: Anonymity is at the heart of bitcoin's success (2)

Fink has defined the bitcoin as a very speculative investment. More importantly, however, this is one tool people use for money laundering, according to the expert.
Bitcoin value fell 29 percent from its peak on Nov. 8, at $7,888, after canceling the planned "hard fork" on the cryptocurrency. The rallying of the bitcoin has led many people to begin to say that the bitcoin is a balloon.
Part of their loss, the bitcoin neutralized on Monday. Even despite its decline, the cryptocurrency has risen more than six times since the beginning of the year.
Fink however warned that most investors with long time horizons that hold "record amounts" off the market should rather focus their attention on more traditional assets such as stocks and bonds.
The bitcoin is small in the financial markets, Fink says. The focus is too much on the bitcoin, the expert added. The financier spoke that he did not understand why all this media attention to the bitcoin was.

Thursday, 16 November 2017

L. Fink: Anonymity is at the heart of the bitcoin's success (1)

One of the most influential financiers in the world - Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock Inc., said o Monday that the anonymity lies in the basis of bitcoin's success.
The value of bitcoin fluctuated seriously in the last month, as it remains a "speculative investment," Fink said. In fact, Fink is one of the few Wall Street bankers who are not as negative about the cryptocurrency.
We can only recall Jamie Diamond's comments that the bitcoin is a fraud and a bubble that will not end well.
According to Fink, whose company manages assets worth $6 trillion, the reason for the exceptionally good performance of the bitcoin is its anonymity. Anonymity, coupled with the ability to cross borders. In the opinion of the financier, if the bitcoin is legalized, it will be known who is the counterpart, the question is how many people will use it if you need to identify yourself as a buyer or seller.

Wednesday, 15 November 2017

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Tuesday, 14 November 2017

A 20% drop in the weekend for the bitcoin

The increase in the cost of bitcoin cash happened in an environment of sharp drop fro the bitcoin. The oldest cryptocurrency lost nearly 20 percent of its peak at $7,900, trading at the minimum of about $6,300 in the weekend.
Trade was tense for the other cryptocurrencies. The ethereum traded stabely at levels of about $300, unable to find a way up until the ripple returned some of the earned and exchanged just over 20 cents a coin.
Now the question is how the news about futures on bitcoin will be reflected on the currency and the fact that GS are clearly preparing to become market makers on the position ...
Will the bitcoin continue to rise, and how much will it cost to pay? When will the ripple start to rise?
Early on Monday morning, the bitcoin cash was traded at levels of about $1,200 for a coin.

Monday, 13 November 2017

Bitcoin cash rose to $2,400 over the weekend - over 300% a week

The great news of the weekend was the extraordinary growth in bitcoin cash. The cryptocurrency began to increase in the past week after it became clear that another "difficult fork" in the bitcoin would not be held.
This renewed interest of investors in bitcoin cash as the only more serious alternative to prevail as a system of payment in bitcoin for faster processing of transactions.
Bitcoin cash rose to the highest value of nearly $2,400. For comparison, the cryptocurrency was traded at the beginning of the week at $600. Or, in just a week, it rose almost four times. About four times, it's the increase in the bitcoin cash for the last month.

Thursday, 9 November 2017

GS: The bitcoin looks at $8,000

Since the JPM, and in particular the head of the financial institution, Jamie Diamond, called the bitcoin bubble, which would end bad for investors, obviously by their main competitor GS saw an exceptional investment opportunity.
According to a number of rumors, the investment bank is working to build an infrastructure for offering products on the bitcoin, which can make it the main player and market maker for cryptocurrency.
A growth to over $7,000 was caused by the news that CME is planning to put futures on the bitcoin. This will further strengthen the legal position of the bitcoin and may give GS more advantages.
Apparently the US investment bank is looking very seriously at this project. And this is evident from the last comments of analysts of the financial institution.
According to technical analyst Sheba Jaffari, the bitcoin has the potential to reach at least $7,941. To put it another way, the next limit to which cryptocurrency can start to look more confidently is $8,000.

Wednesday, 8 November 2017

Gold futures rose during Asian trading

Quotations of gold futures rose during Asian session on Wednesday.
At COMEX, a division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for December delivery are traded at a price of $1.277.93 per troy ounce, up by 0.17%. Gold found support at 1.265.90 dollars and resistance - at 1.285.10 dollars.
Futures on the USD index, showing the ratio of the US dollar to the basket of the six major currencies, decreased by 0.06% and is trading at around 94.75 dollars.
As for other commodities traded on COMEX, silver futures for December delivery rose by 0.40% to $17.007 per troy ounce, while copper futures for December delivery rose by 0.06% to reach the level of 3,089 dollars per pound.

WTI futures rose in price during Asian trade

Quotations for oil futures WTI rose during Asian trading on Wednesday.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI futures for December delivery are traded at a price of $57.03 per barrel, up 0.30%. WTI oil found support at $53.99 and resistance at $57.69.
Futures on the USD index, showing the ratio of the US dollar to the basket of the six major currencies, decreased by 0.06% and is trading at around 94.75 dollars.
As for other goods traded on ICE, futures for Brent crude for January delivery increased by 0.16%, reaching $63.59 per barrel, and the difference in price between Brent crude oil contracts and WTI crude oil was 6.56 dollars per barrel.

Tuesday, 7 November 2017

That's what may stop the US indices growth

US indexes continue with their records. The S&P 500 index last week saw its longest winning weekly series in four years, after eight consecutive weeks of growth.
A key market test, however, may become a reality when a group of stocks will present its results next week.
Namely, we need to look at the results of the trading sector in relation to the Black Friday. This may be the first sign of market-based cracking.
Stocks of retailers are already 9% down from the beginning of the year, driven by massive industrial pressures and weaker-than-expected results for companies in the sector.
Less-than-expected sales during the "Black Friday" may lead to purchase of put options on the part of investors to protect their portfolios from potential corrections that may happen very soon.
At the moment in the US markets, the situation looks like a party that will never end. But as we all know, every thing has its end.

Monday, 6 November 2017

Carney: Brexit will limit the expansionary policy of BoE

Last week, we witnessed an interesting phenomenon - the British Central Bank raised interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade, and the British currency collapsed against other major currencies.
Contrary to logic, as the interest rate rises the national currency, the depreciation of the pound is explained by the expectation that the ECB will not raise interest soon.
A testimony of this was given by Mark Carney's last statement. The head of the central bank said in a special interview that Bexit's uncertainty could actually hurt the British economy in the short term and thus curb the central bank's ability to further raise interest rates.
Carney also warned that Britain's most affected by the interest rate hike would be mortgage lending for the purchase of property. This is very likely to make property in the UK even more inaccessible.
Brexit is only 508 days away, but for most businesses their alarms are set for much earlier, according to market observers. About 10% of British businesses are already slowly starting to reposition their businesses and move their workforce outside of the UK.

Saturday, 4 November 2017

Investors end the cash and this is terrible for the stock

More and more analysts warn that investors' cash deposits have fallen to their lowest levels in history. And this can be terribly bad news for the markets.
It can be interpreted in two directions - first, all are long in the market, or it is the perfect moment for correction. And second, there is no one to support the market with new purchases, with a potential adjustment.
Until now, the share purchase strategy for any 2 to 3% adjustment worked perfectly because investors had enough free funds. What will happen, however, with the next 3% adjustment and who will support the market then?
We can not fail to note the fact that the S&P 500 index has recorded a record long series without a 3% adjustment.
In other words, a new problem emerges in the stock markets - in connection with the lack of cash. Money market assets are at a record low of 17%, while equity investment stocks are also at a record low of 3.3%, according to INTL FCStone.

Apple exceeded expectations

Yesterday, the world's largest market capitalization company, Apple, outperformed analysts' average expectations. It happened only a day after the iconic smartphone iPhone X began selling in Australia with long queues.
Apple shares rose by 4%.
The company predicted first-quarter earnings of between $84 billion and $87 billion, which was in the upper range of average expectations of $84.18 billion.
Apple's market capitalization is already at about $868 billion, and is confidently moving toward the $1 trillion psychological limit. This would be the first company in history with such capitalization.
There are still many questions about the new X Series smartphone and how it will affect the results.
According to experts, if the company fails to meet the enormous demand for the new smartphone by Christmas, consumers will postpone its purchase for May, and may then focus their funds elsewhere.
Apple announced that it had sold 46.7 million iPones in the fourth quarter ended September 30, or above average experts' expectations of 46.4 million. The average selling price, however, has fallen to 618, compared to the forecast of 638 dollars.
The net profit of the company rose to $10.71 billion, or $2.07 per share, from $9.01 billion, or $1.67 a share a year earlier. This was again above analysts' average expectations for a profit of $1.87 per share.

Friday, 3 November 2017

The US economy has added 261,000 jobs

The newly created jobs in the world's largest economy amounted to 261,000 in October. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell again to 4.1%, according to data from the National Labor Office.
This is the lowest unemployment rate since December 2000.
However, the data proved to be slightly below average analysts' expectations. At the same time, employment figures for August were revised upwards from 169,000 to 208,000.
The September data also revised up to an increase of 18,000, compared with an initial decline of 33,000.
Analysts' average expectations were for 313,000 new jobs in October and unemployment rate at 4.2%.
October's pay growth is also disappointing. It turned out to be zero versus 2.4% in the previous month. This greatly reduces inflation expectations in the coming months as well as a December interest rate hike.

T. Lee: Buy the bitcoin at $5,500

Tommy Lee, one of the most bullish analysts in the bitcoin, who predicts that the cryptocurrency will rise to $25,000 by 2022, warned investors to be careful.
The bitcoin has risen to a new historic peak at nearly $7,300, which is an increase of over 60% over the past nearly a month.
While growth is largely predetermined by factors such as the rumors that the CME Group will offer futures on the cryptocurrency, and that Amazon buys crypto-based domains, Lee warns that growth of such magnitude may not be particularly healthy.
The expert advised investors to buy the bitcoin at $5,500, keeping its target for the $25,000 price in 2022.
What does Lee want to say?
That it is quite possible to witness a depreciation of the bitcoin to levels of 5,000-5,500 dollars, which would represent a correction of over 30% of the current bitcoin levels.
It should also be noted that Coinbase has added more than 100,000 users in the last 24 hours following the announcement by CME.

Wednesday, 1 November 2017

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Thursday, 26 October 2017

JPM: There are no cheap assets at the moment

Richard Madigan, Chief Investment Officer of the Private Banking Unit of the Investment Bank J.P. Morgan has bad news for investors. And it is - no asset seems cheap at the moment.
Madagan, which manages assets of $290 billion of private customers, and a total of more than $1 trillion in general, believes that the main challenge for investors today is the diversification of expensive markets and how to manage the higher customer expectations.
Yesterday, the stock saw a certain return after the record highs, which is seen as the first symptom of risk exposures among investors, and according to some experts, may be a precursor to a more serious adjustment.
The strategy among investors to buy on any index drop was the most profitable in the past three to five years, but the question is when will it stop working properly?
Some experts, such as GS, have made comments last week that the US economy and markets may be close to their peak. A similar thesis was taken up by other market observers.
Still, the foundation for the economy and companies remains strong, concludes Madigan. So, the biggest challenge for the manager right now is still the proper management of investor expectations. And the latter are quite high.

Oil rally may be short-term?

Another good week for oil after the OPEC Secretary predicted global oil consumption growth to over 100 million barrels per day by 2020. Mohamed Barkindo's statement was widely welcomed by oil investors.
Investors are now beginning to ask - is the oil rally justified and how far could the price of black gold go?
The market knows that OPEC's positive comments and forecasts often are rapidly being overcomed. Especially in cases where net long positions of investors rise to high levels, as currently the case is.
Investors are aware that any forecasts coming from OPEC should be taken with a great portion of mistrust. In the end, they come from a party that is interested in a high oil price and can be manipulated.
Some experts start to worry that the price of oil has risen too much and too fast. Not only the planned repairs of US refineries expected to bring downward pressure on raw material prices, but also the number of shale growers is rising as a result of the rise in oil prices.
Oil demand from China may also fall below expectations, which is another factor to lower the price of oil.
On the other hand, the unprecedented warming of relations between Russia and Opec may be a factor that will continue to support the cost of the raw material. What will happen from now on is yet to be seen.

Wednesday, 25 October 2017

Gold continues to lose positions

Gold fell yesterday after investors were eagerly awaiting the announcement of the new Fed leader who would feed the dollar. At the same time, US indices are trading very close to their record highs.
President Trump told the media on Monday that he was "very, very close" to his choice of a new Fed leader.
The spot price of gold fell by 0.5% to $1 276 per ounce after falling to $ 1,271.86 an ounce a day earlier.
Gold futures with delivery in December fell by 0.2 percent to $1 278.9 per ounce.
The spot price of gold lost 6 percent of its one-year high on September 8, at a level of $1,357.54 per ounce. Expectations are that the Fed will raise rates in December for the third time this year.
Gold also does not receive support in the direction of geopolitical uncertainty. Recently, there is nothing new about North Korea, or the situation seems quite relaxed.

Tuesday, 24 October 2017

GS: S&P 500 at 2 400 points by the end of the year

The US economy is growing at a healthy pace, which has already brought the US indexes to new record highs, commented GS chief financial analyst David Kostin. He acknowledged that a synchronized rise in economic activity around the world was a major reason for the appreciation of the stock.
Now, however, Kostin warns investors to be careful. He pointed to the ISM Manufacturing Index, which is at a 13-month high of 60.8 points in September. Indicator value is above 50 points, signaling growth.
In other words, according to Kostin, the current ISM index values ​​could signal a peak in the economy.
And as we know, expectations are being traded in the markets. When expectations begin to slow down, markets are also following.
Kostin predicts the blue chip index S&P 500 to drop to 2 400 points by the end of the year. Despite these expectations, he likes growth-oriented stocks.