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Friday 9 September 2016

By the end of the year ECB may extend the program of quantitative easing

Thursday was very eventful for the major currency pair. Immediately after the September meeting of the European Central Bank, the euro/dollar rose sharply and touched a two-week high at 1.1316, but quickly came back under the 1.13.
ECB left the interest rate at zero, the deposit rate at -0.4% and the monthly purchase of assets amount to 80 billion euro. In his comments after the meeting, Mario Draghi said that QE will continue until the designated period (March of the following year) or longer, if adjustments of inflation are required. The consumer price index, on the assessment of the ECB, is steadily improving. Eurozone GDP in the third quarter will be equal to growth in April-June this year, and in general, the ECB expected growth of the region's GDP by 1.7% by the end of 2016.
Investors appear to be reasoned as follows: while the statistics for the euro area at most part is positive, the European regulator will not increase or extend QE. However, such a possibility is present for further meetings. March 2017 is not so far away as it seems. For half a year significant improvement in the European economic system could not happen, and the ECB is not one of those, who would make desperate attempts to align the boat at the last minute. Typically, Mario Draghi warnes markets in advance about the bank's readiness to act. It is possible that in November and December, the ECB would inform the capital markets of the intention to expand or extend the QE. In the meantime, let the euro fans rejoice.

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