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Tuesday 10 October 2017

El-Erian: Only an external shock like North Korea can stop the stock rise

Allianz chief economist Mohamed El-Erian said he is concerned about what is happening with North Korea and potential mistakes by the Fed on monetary policy.
Investors felt comfortable in recent years that central banks supported them. But will this change?
Promises of "synchronized economic recovery" are not as strong as guaranteeing high asset prices, El-Erian said.
According to him, we need to see a series of significant events, or a bigger shock that would pull the market out of the rails. It is not easy to remove the market from its tracks.
Regarding the potential shocks that worry El-Erian, he pointed North Korea to do something very stupid, followed by such a reaction on the part of the United States.
El-Érian also worries about a possible error in the monetary policy of the leading central banks around the world, given their lenient policy since 2008.
Buying any correction is already a strategy that makes sense given the historical performance of the indexes. The question, however, is how long this strategy will work. And it will work until it stops working...

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