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Sunday 14 January 2018

GS: Correction but not end of the bullish market

The growth of stock markets, which leads them to new historical records, creates a risk of correction, but not for the end of the bullish market. At least such is the opinion of experts from Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
US indexes rose to new records, driven by optimism among investors, that tax reforms taken by the Trump administration will drive US companies' profits to their best growth for many years.
The GS reminded that MSCI World Index and MSCI Emerging Market Index are in their longest winning series, with no adjustment of 5 and 10%. Despite the danger of corrections, with a similar magnitude, however, we are unlikely to witness a bearish market.
For the bearish market, investors receive a top-level adjustment of more than 10%. The traditional bearish market, however, includes a decline of more than 15% of the peaks. In other words, according to analysts of the US Investment Bank, at this stage there are no symptoms of a drop of more than 10%.
The Fed and the rise in interest rates on the reserve are cited as the most likely cause of a potential correction of US indices.
In addition, almost all of the world's leading stock indices are in overpriced territory. In practice, almost no major index is in over-sold territory.
The GS are far more pessimistic in their ratings with respect to bonds. According to bank experts, bond markets are far more threatened by the potential policy of raising interest rates from the reserve.


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