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Tuesday 13 February 2018

Inflation expectations in the US have fallen

Inflation expectations in the US declined over the past month, according to a report by the New York Fed, published yesterday. Financial markets traditionally look at these reports as evidence of what inflation will be.
The survey of consumer expectations indicates a further gradual rise in interest rates. However, inflation is expected to be 2.71% next year compared to 2.82 the previous month.
The three-year value of expectations was 2.79% in January, which was also down from 2.89% previously. Both values ​​last month were the highest in a long time.
Data largely contradicts the government's January wage increase report, which raised inflationary expectations of the market as well as expectations for interest rate hikes from the Fed.
The Fed raised interest rates three times in the past year, despite the fall in inflation. At the same time, the reserve is expected to do so three more times this year.
In addition, the Fed is expected to begin gradually reducing its record balance, which will also exert an upward pressure on interest rates.



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