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Monday 30 July 2018

EUR/USD after the ECB meeting

The ECB meeting is already in the history. In general, it can be summed up that it did not produce anything more serious like news. The euro wondered where it would go against the dollar, but eventually chose to go down, falling below 1.1650. Earlier in the day, the single currency traded at levels of about 1.1700 after the good development from Trump and Juncker meeting.
Overall, the ECB decided to keep its base rate unchanged. Draghi also confirmed that 30 billion stimulus would gradually be reduced to reach zero by December 2018.
At the press conference, Draghi once again confirmed the plans of the financial institution to maintain the current interest rate by the summer of next year to ensure continued steady convergence of inflation over the medium term to levels near two percent.
Of course, the future decisions of ECB will continue to be predetermined by the outgoing macrodata. This was accepted by market participants as a signal that if the trade war resulted in a more serious slowdown in economic growth and inflation, the central bank could be much less aggressive about its interest rates.
In June, the ECB announced its plans to end its massive bond purchase program in December, hinting that interest rates are likely to remain at the current low levels until at least the summer of 2019. The ECB reaffirmed that any possible change to the current plan would depend on the current economic data.
According to technical analysts, the euro may try to retest the psychological limit of 1.1500 against the dollar, and the test will determine the further movement of the currency pair. Decline below this limit can be seen as a very negative signal and lead to further losses for the single currency towards 1.13-1.12. Otherwise, a failed breakthrough, as well as returning at trading levels above 1.1700, will require conditions to boost the euro's appreciation.


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