DB: Sell in the summer, the next 5% move is more likely to be downwards

Wondering what to trade in the summer? The largest German financial institution - Deutsche Bank has an idea. And it is - sell in the summer, because according to analysts of the bank, the next 5% movement for the US indices will be down.
The rise of the indices is so far justified, but from the bank believe it has reached its limits in the short term and the market may be tense in connection with potential dramatic decisions by Congress.
State legislators will most likely present significant changes to tax legislation that will lead to simplification of the system. Still, it is not clear when such changes will come into force. It is very likely that they will not materialize after August.
Deutsche Bank also said it was reducing its stock expectations. In line with their expectations for the direction of the S&P 500, from the bank practically reduce their tactical exposure to US stocks from 70 to 60%.

Deutsche Bank: The defeat of Marine Le Pen could send EUR/USD to 1.08

In case of victory of Emmanuel Macron on the presidential elections in France (the first round is on April 23, and the second - on May 7), EUR/USD could rise to 1.08 dollars, the bank analysts said. Furthermore, they believe that:
- Low volatility talk about market confidence in the fact that Le Pen would win;
- despite recent bellicose statements of the administration of Donald Trump on currency manipulators, neither the US nor China want excessive weakening of the yuan;
- breakthrough of US 10-year bonds below 2.25% could spark a new wave of liquidation of short positions;
- in general, the yield on US bonds look quite low relative to the general economic picture and it seems the market underestimated the warlike attitude of the Federal Reserve.

Deutsche Bank: It's time to sell the most overvalued currency in the world

Currency strategists at Deutsche Bank, who already have in their portfolio short positions in Australian dollar against the Canadian, think it's time to consider selling AUD against the US Dollar.
Changes in the technical picture confirms the inability of the bulls to take advantage of this initiative, while improving the economic prospects of the United States after the victory of Trump and negative signals from data from Australia showed that the fundamental picture favors lowering. At Deutsche Bank paying attention to the weakening of wage growth in Australia and the general deterioration of the situation on the labor market in the country, which in the opinion of the analysts of the bank will cause the Reserve Bank of Australia to lower interest rates again in the first half of 2017.
In addition, DB doubt the recent rally in commodity assets as the bank's strategists do not believe that the movement reflects the real situation in the economy and therefore do not believe in its stability.
DB's analysts do not expect a noticeable improvement of the situation with the trade balance in Australia and also remind about the risks of China, which continue to maintain a policy of gradual devaluation of the yuan. From the bank also advise not to forget that with the arrival of Donald Trump at the White House it could be expecteda  deterioration in the trade disputes between the US and China.
At the bank believe that in given circumstances from the Australian currency can be expected a resumption of downward momentum, as the Australian dollar could be called the most overvalued currency in the world.

The euro moved up against the dollar by reducing the fears around Deutsche Bank

Euro compensated the fall against the dollar on Friday, after the European currency slipped to US to a minimum of nine weeks due to reduced fears about the state of the German Deutsche Bank (DE: DBKGn).
In addition, the ensuing peace of investors put pressure on the robust yen and the Swiss franc.
Traded in the US Deutsche Bank shares rose by 12.2 percent to 15.36 GMT, after falling to a record low the day before. The root cause of the bank crisis - a fine by the US Department of Justice, the amount of which may reach $14 billion, which the Bank disputes.
Assumptions about reducing fine supported the euro after the currency fell to $1.1153 in early trading session in the US. By reducing anxiety about the Deutsche Bank the dollar peaked in nine days to reliable franc at 0.9752.