President Donald Trump found time during his visit to Warsaw to comment on the recent US indexes.
In his speech, Trump noted that the recent rally in the stock markets makes "everyone else rich".
"And the United States is doing very well — very strong. We've taken off restrictions and people are really moving hard. So when I say that the stock market is at an all-time high, we've picked up in market value almost $4 trillion since November 8, which was the election. Four trillion dollars — it's a lot of money. Personally, I picked up nothing, but that's all right. Everyone else is getting rich. That's OK. I'm very happy," Trump said in his speech.
Trump, not once and twice, turns to historical record highs of US indices of previous weeks. According to him, the media do not pay enough attention to this to fact.
"Dow hit a new intraday all-time high! I wonder whether or not the Fake News Media will so report?", the US president said on Monday in his Twitter.
And while the Dow Jones industrial index was recording an intraday peak, it eventually ended at a record closing level of June 19. At the same time, the tecnological index Nasdaq is already around 200 points from its peak on June 8.
With regard to Trump, the administration of the president said that the new president had liquidated all his shares in June 2016.
According to Trump, USA have, at the moment, the lowest unemployment rate since 16 years.
Saturday, 8 July 2017
Fed members disunited
The report of the previous Fed meeting on monetary policy shows a serious disunity amongst the members of the Monetary Policy Committee about the rise in interest rates.
Details of the summit, on which FED voted to raise interest rates indicated that several members of the committee asked the balance of reserve bonds to start declining by the end of August. Others, however, have said that this is more appropriate to be done later this year.
And while most of the FOMC members believe that the observed slowdown in price increase is a temporary phenomenon and a consequence of seasonal and casual factors, some have expressed concern if this is not the beginning of a new trend.
Fed members also seem to be worried why the recent rise in interest rates has not led to a contraction in money supply, and why financial markets have continued to grow.
Details of the summit, on which FED voted to raise interest rates indicated that several members of the committee asked the balance of reserve bonds to start declining by the end of August. Others, however, have said that this is more appropriate to be done later this year.
And while most of the FOMC members believe that the observed slowdown in price increase is a temporary phenomenon and a consequence of seasonal and casual factors, some have expressed concern if this is not the beginning of a new trend.
Fed members also seem to be worried why the recent rise in interest rates has not led to a contraction in money supply, and why financial markets have continued to grow.
Friday, 7 July 2017
Marc Faber: Another financial crisis in my lifetime
Marc Faber, or the more famous under the nickname "Dr. Doom" analyst, has made another scary warning for investors. According to him, we will see another financial crisis within his life.
There are two possible options: either Faber expects to live long, or predicts that we may soon experience a new massive financial crisis.
One thing is certain, Faber is far more moderate in predicting massive crises then before. Normally, his forecasts were something like "be prepared next year for a new financial crisis".
Given the fact that he warned of this for three years, a time when the market has been steadily upward, apparently Faber has decided to change tactics.
Just a week ago, Fed leader Janet Yellen calmed down the market that we would not see a financial crisis similar to that of 2008 in our lives.
In an interview with CNBC, however, at the beginning of the week, Faber said: "I'm 71 and for sure in my lifetime, unless I have an accident tomorrow, I will see another financial crisis and a massive one".
Faber is particularly worried about the world's record debt levels.
"We have a colossal credit bubble in the world. Can it expand? Yes, but it cannot expand forever. One day there will be a limit and one day there will be another huge crisis because the debt level today is higher than it was in 2007", adds Faber.
Mr. Catastrophe warns of a serious decline in US indices and believes he has a "bubble everywhere".
Faber added that he was less bearish than what he was, and that's worrying.
Faber recommends international then the US stock markets.
There are two possible options: either Faber expects to live long, or predicts that we may soon experience a new massive financial crisis.
One thing is certain, Faber is far more moderate in predicting massive crises then before. Normally, his forecasts were something like "be prepared next year for a new financial crisis".
Given the fact that he warned of this for three years, a time when the market has been steadily upward, apparently Faber has decided to change tactics.
Just a week ago, Fed leader Janet Yellen calmed down the market that we would not see a financial crisis similar to that of 2008 in our lives.
In an interview with CNBC, however, at the beginning of the week, Faber said: "I'm 71 and for sure in my lifetime, unless I have an accident tomorrow, I will see another financial crisis and a massive one".
Faber is particularly worried about the world's record debt levels.
"We have a colossal credit bubble in the world. Can it expand? Yes, but it cannot expand forever. One day there will be a limit and one day there will be another huge crisis because the debt level today is higher than it was in 2007", adds Faber.
Mr. Catastrophe warns of a serious decline in US indices and believes he has a "bubble everywhere".
Faber added that he was less bearish than what he was, and that's worrying.
Faber recommends international then the US stock markets.
Ron Paul: 25% correction of the markets and 50% growth for gold is not excluded
In an interview with CNBC, Ron Paul, a former GOP president, said the US economy is probably not as strong as everyone expects and the situation could become "ugly" by October.
According to him, if the market drops by 25% and gold is rising by 50%, it would not be a shock.
Such a scenario would take the broad US S&P 500 index to a level of $1,819 and gold to $1,867 per ounce relative to current levels.
Paul is known for his bearish expectations and open-ended critic of the Trump administration. He also often criticizes the Fed for maintaining interest rates at too low levels for too long.
This, of course, is not the first time that Paul predicts an adjustment. He did the same on June 28 2016, or just a year ago. Since then, the S&P 500 index has risen by 21% and Dow has added 24%. Technological Nasdaq is traded with an increase of 34%.
Paul, however, continues to hold on to his thesis.
According to him, if the market drops by 25% and gold is rising by 50%, it would not be a shock.
Such a scenario would take the broad US S&P 500 index to a level of $1,819 and gold to $1,867 per ounce relative to current levels.
Paul is known for his bearish expectations and open-ended critic of the Trump administration. He also often criticizes the Fed for maintaining interest rates at too low levels for too long.
This, of course, is not the first time that Paul predicts an adjustment. He did the same on June 28 2016, or just a year ago. Since then, the S&P 500 index has risen by 21% and Dow has added 24%. Technological Nasdaq is traded with an increase of 34%.
Paul, however, continues to hold on to his thesis.
Thursday, 6 July 2017
GS: The bitcoin can collapse before it raises to $4,000
The period since the beginning of the year was good for the crypto-currencies. The bitcoin has risen from nearly $1,000 to $3,000 before ending the second quarter at $2,500. Or, it registered an increase of 168% in the first half of the year.
The strong rise in bitcoin levels has created serious controversy between Wall Street analysts and the technology world, whether the virtual currency is a "bubble".
Goldman Sachs, the state-owned investment bank, said the bitcoin could adjust seriously before rising to a new record high.
In a letter to clients of the financial institution, Sheba Jaffari, head of the US Banking Technical Analysis Unit, said the bitcoin had not exhausted its decline, which could take it to levels at least $1 857, which is a decrease of 25% of its current levels.
However, enthusiasts should not be bothered by the correction, but rather look at it as a good opportunity to buy bitcoins.
Because the correction, according to Jaffari, will be followed by a new strong appreciation of the crypto-currency, which would bring it to at least 3,212 dollars, with a potential for $ 3,915.
The strong rise in bitcoin levels has created serious controversy between Wall Street analysts and the technology world, whether the virtual currency is a "bubble".
Goldman Sachs, the state-owned investment bank, said the bitcoin could adjust seriously before rising to a new record high.
In a letter to clients of the financial institution, Sheba Jaffari, head of the US Banking Technical Analysis Unit, said the bitcoin had not exhausted its decline, which could take it to levels at least $1 857, which is a decrease of 25% of its current levels.
However, enthusiasts should not be bothered by the correction, but rather look at it as a good opportunity to buy bitcoins.
Because the correction, according to Jaffari, will be followed by a new strong appreciation of the crypto-currency, which would bring it to at least 3,212 dollars, with a potential for $ 3,915.
Sunday, 2 July 2017
Oil with the worst performance for the first half of the year since 1998
The weakness of the dollar and weaker production in the US have triggered a rise in oil prices over the week. However, this did not prevented the raw material from registering its worst performance for the first half of 1998.
Brent finished the first six months of the year, at levels of nearly $49 a barrel, and US crude at $46.30 a barrel.
Thus, since the beginning of the year, the Brent has lost 15% of its value, and US crude oil - nearly 18%. This is also their biggest decline for the first six months since 19 years, statistics show.
The start of the sharp decline in oil has happened surprisingly after the decision by the OPEC countries to continue their production cuts by March next year.
The effect of the decision, however, was largely offset by the data that producers such as Nigeria and Libya virtually increased their production in May of this year.
In addition, data for a faster-than-expected growth in US production also had a negative impact on oil prices. Increased production is also present with other non-OPEC producers - including Brazil and Canada.
Brent finished the first six months of the year, at levels of nearly $49 a barrel, and US crude at $46.30 a barrel.
Thus, since the beginning of the year, the Brent has lost 15% of its value, and US crude oil - nearly 18%. This is also their biggest decline for the first six months since 19 years, statistics show.
The start of the sharp decline in oil has happened surprisingly after the decision by the OPEC countries to continue their production cuts by March next year.
The effect of the decision, however, was largely offset by the data that producers such as Nigeria and Libya virtually increased their production in May of this year.
In addition, data for a faster-than-expected growth in US production also had a negative impact on oil prices. Increased production is also present with other non-OPEC producers - including Brazil and Canada.
The dollar with the worst quarter for years
The president Donald Trump goes firmly to his goal - the US dollar has finished its worst quarter for years.
According to Trump, any weakness of the dollar is a major goal of his administration. The president's logic is that the weak US currency will stimulate companies and, accordingly, the country's economy.
Green money rose to a peak of 14 years in December, but since then it has become cheaper as a result of expectations for measures by the new administration.
In the second quarter, the dollar index, measuring the performance of the US currency against other major currencies, fell by 4.6%. This was its worst quarter since the third quarter of 2010.
The disappointing data on the US economy, coupled with good European data, helped to guide the dollar in the direction desired by Trump.
In addition, central banks around the world have expressed the view that it is time to change the course of their current stimulus policies. Including in Europe. This gave an extra boost to the euro.
The only weak link, at this stage, remains Japan. There the incentives are expected to last longer than in the rest of the world.
According to Trump, any weakness of the dollar is a major goal of his administration. The president's logic is that the weak US currency will stimulate companies and, accordingly, the country's economy.
Green money rose to a peak of 14 years in December, but since then it has become cheaper as a result of expectations for measures by the new administration.
In the second quarter, the dollar index, measuring the performance of the US currency against other major currencies, fell by 4.6%. This was its worst quarter since the third quarter of 2010.
The disappointing data on the US economy, coupled with good European data, helped to guide the dollar in the direction desired by Trump.
In addition, central banks around the world have expressed the view that it is time to change the course of their current stimulus policies. Including in Europe. This gave an extra boost to the euro.
The only weak link, at this stage, remains Japan. There the incentives are expected to last longer than in the rest of the world.
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