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Tuesday, 8 May 2018

Dimon: Get ready for 4% interest rate on 10-year bonds and volatility

Bad news for investors on US stock markets. And they come, not by anybody, but by Jamie Dimon, the head of JPMorgan Chase&Co.
According to Dimon, the growth of the US economy and inflation may be fast enough to make the Fed raise rates more than expected.
It would not be a surprise if we witnessed an increase in interest rates on 10-year US bonds to levels of 4%, said Dimon.
According to him, the accelerated rise in federal interest rates could push interest rates on 10-year US government bonds up. We can easily see 4% interest rates even, and I think people need to start preparing for that, said Dimon, during a special interview at Bloomberg Television.
While interest rates rise as a result of the good health of the US economy, it will be a return to normal. However, interest rate hikes, coupled with a reduction in global bond repurchase programs, may cause more volatility, given that exit from monetary stimulus is unplanned territory.
So far, we have not had asset redemption programs or exit these programs, the expert added.
JPMorgan Chief Executive Officer also hopes the tensions between the US and China will not hurt the financial expansion plan for China.


Monday, 7 May 2018

Inflation in the Eurozone is slowing, the chances of ending the incentives - too

Inflation in the eurozone surprisingly slowed over the past month, according to last week's data, which reduced the chances of a timely exit from the program of incentives and rising interest rates.
Consumer prices rose 1.2% in April, according to Eurostat, which was below their 1.3% growth in the past month. At the same time, the result is sustained under the 2% target of the ECB.
The Core Consumer Price Index slowed down to 0.7%, or its lowest level in a year.
The results were considered very negative by market participants who continued to sell the euro against the dollar. The single currency is permanently traded below 1.2000 and it is extremely difficult for it to return over this treshold again.


Thursday, 3 May 2018

Next stop for the bitcoin - $10,000?

The bitcoin rose 4.8% last week, neutralizing its decline of 4.1%. The crypto currency, however, continues to face difficulties in registering two consecutive days of rise.
In spite of the fall of the bitcoin in the recent week, however, the currency gained 6.3% last week. And more importantly, it managed to get back at trading levels of over $9,000.
Now, according to analysts, the crypto currency can continue to grow to a level of $10,000.
The highest daily rate was $9,500 and the lowest equivalent value was $8,750.
The good news for investors is that the crypto currency retraced from 23.6% fibonacci correction, which was at $8,996 to recover to $9,342.9.
Bitcoin bulls expect the good times for the crypto currency to continue, heading for the $10,000 psychological limit.


Wednesday, 2 May 2018

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One simple reason explains the narrow range of US indices

US stocks have been "stuck" in a narrow range in recent weeks, and the key reason behind this is very simple - there is no leader to follow.
This happens relatively rarely in the stock - lacking unambiguous leaders to keep the whole market up. Compared to the past year when these were technological shares, this year's situation is completely different.
Markets experience relatively similar periods of lack of leadership, said Michael Wilson, market strategist at Morgan Stanley.
Since the beginning of the year, the S&P 500 has declined by 0.21%, while the blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.6%. At the same time, the Nasdaq technology is up 2.5%.
The sectors are mainly traded downward, with only three of the 11 major sectors on the positive territory for the year.
The best-performing sector is the consumer cycle, adding 5.5% to its value this year. This, however, is predetermined by the strong performance of several names. For example, Amazon.com, which accounts for around 20% of the sector, has increased its market capitalization by nearly 34% this year.
Shares of Netflix Inc. - the fifth largest component in the sector, rose by more than 63% since the beginning of the year. Other names, like Home Depot HD and Walt Disney, have been in negative territory since the beginning of the year.
For the market as a whole, the lack of a sector to lead growth is also a "worrying signal" by itself.
Analysts comment that such periods occur in times of transition from a growing market to a market that has found its peak or is about to find it. The situation is further compounded by interest rates on 10-year US bonds, which rose by more than 3%, and by expectations of main interest rates hike.
There are some signs that the energy sector may become a market leader. It has grown by 9.5% since the beginning of the month, which is the best performance among the 11 major sectors of the broad US index.



Tuesday, 1 May 2018

Wells Fargo: Gold and silver in a bearish super-cycle

Bad news for investors in metals - like gold and silver. According to the Wells Fargo Investment Bank, gold and silver are in a super bearish cycle, which may last another five years.
And while analysts from the bank would not recommend an investment in either metal, in better position they think is the silver because it has a relatively higher upside potential, on a fundamental point of view.
The analysts from the bank are expecting a five-year cycle of bears, or something similar to the price of metals. This means a limited growth in metal prices and a lot of lateral movement in their price.
From the financial institution, they forecast a range in the price of gold between 1 050 and 1 400 dollars, while for gold - between 13 and 22 dollars.
For comparison, the price of gold ended on Friday at a rate of $1,323 per ounce, while the price of silver at $16.40.
Gold peaked in 2011, reaching a level of $1,900 per ounce, while the price of silver rose to the highest levels of $50 per ounce.
Gold is traded at levels of about 76 times, comparing to silver, at an historically average level of 37 times. Or the metal looks quite overrated compared to silver.


The UK economy with the weakest growth in five years

The first quarter was extremely negative for the British economy. Throughout it, it has seen its slightest rise in five years, data showed on Monday.
This led to strong fall for the pound against all major currencies.
The UK economy has risen by 0.1%, or at least since the fourth quarter of 2012. The result was well below the average expectations of growth.
The slowdown in construction costs was to a large extent the basis of poor performance. The unconditionally low temperatures and snow in the country since last month have largely contributed to this.
Our initial forecasts for the British economy show that Britain's economy has been rising at its weakest pace in over five years, with a weaker presence in the industry, said Rob Kent-Smith, official government official. And while the snow was partly responsible for this, especially in the construction sector, it was partially offset by increased electricity and online sales, the expert added.
The pound fell sharply against the dollar, losing 0.8 percent of its value to $1.3805 on Monday, or its lowest value since March 9. Investors raised their bets that the British Central Bank would not be able to raise interest rates soon.