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Friday 29 July 2016

All eyes are on the yen

Today will be the meeting of the Bank of Japan, which will take place against the background of fierce speculation not only about what the regulator will announce, but also about whether it will have at least some value.
Uncertainty increases, because it is not clear what will include incentives program announced by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and how much is really new costs it implies.
We do not know what will do the Bank of Japan, it may be best to refrain from adjusting existing QQE program and instead to declare change of approach, coupled with fiscal stimulus, and leave the details for later.
This will keep the yen's rise, at least until the next meeting, and the ball will go to Abe's field. Conspiracy theorists are likely to believe that the Bank of Japan and Abe had already agreed on everything, but they want to make it appear as if each acts on his own.

The USD/JPY is likely waiting for sharp moves in either direction before the meeting. Bulls should pay attention to the Ichimoku cloud, which sends a bullish signal, and if the Bank of Japan will take the test for "pigeon" attitude, I am waiting for strong growth over the next sessions of the outside of the cloud.
Even if the pair rushes down, the recent growth has weakened clearly the downward trend, and on the way to 100.00 support is still a lot of levels, starting with 103.50 and then - 102.50/00.


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