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Thursday 7 July 2016

Fed's minutes did not brought new ideas

The reports, published yesterday from the June's meeting of the Fed did not brought new ideas on the market. The general conclusion is the following - the uncertainty after the British referendum is maintained, failing data on the labor market in the last month are likely to be a single event, but the attention to statistics in the coming months will be very significant.
Tomorrow will be published labor market data for June, and, according to the consensus forecast, the statistics will be released in a moderately positive manner. Consensus at the moment suggests that there have been generated about 175 thousand new jobs in June, the unemployment rate during this period increased from 4.7% to 4.8% (which is not a problem, after an unexpected decline by 0.2% last month), dynamics wages remained at the level of the previous reporting period. Such statistics would be an evidence that the US economy is relatively healthy, and the labor market is feeling ok.
Tomorrow's statistics will be important for the US dollar in the currency market. The dollar index significantly added value after the publication of results of the referendum, and then within a few days demonstrates consolidation. If the labor market statistics will be positive, the dollar index may try to form another boost up, and the breakthrough of local maximums at 96.90-97 area may give a signal for growth to 98-98.50 area.


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