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Tuesday 10 April 2018

Currency volatility is surprisingly low (1)

The Russian ruble is cheaper, the Turkish lira is close to a record low against the dollar, and there is speculation about the devaluation of the yuan by the Chinese government. Hardly, however, you will find out all these things if you look at the volatility of currency markets.
The $5.1 trillion dollar market price measure per day is extremely weak, despite the political instability and expectations of a trade war between the US and China.
Deutsche Bank's exchange rate volatility index for the next one and three months is close to a three-month minimum.
The reason - beyond the ruble and the pound, the widely traded couples, such as the euro-dollar and the dollar-yen, have to break through their ranges of trade to see more serious movements and consequently greater volatility, according to market observers.
The lack of more serious news that would point the dollar in one direction and pull it out of its consolidation are among the main reasons for low volatility. In other words, at the moment of struggle, between bulls and bears, no one manages to last forever. This leads to the dollar and other major currency pairs moving to range.


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