50 Cent bets on VIX again

Do you remember the mysterious trader "50 Cent"? The guy who, for nearly a year, has consistently bet on put options on the VIX volatility index and, though for a long time shadowed, ultimately made a profit of tens of millions of dollars?
This might be a good example of how patience and persistence of trading, coupled with a good commercial strategy, reward the player.
Well, it looks like the mysterious trader is back to its favorite instrument again.
After profiting about $183 million and long absent, or rather awaiting, from the volatility index market, the trader made its bet again.
It was placed on Tuesday with the purchase of 50,000 call options with $28 bet on the volatility index at a level of 0.50 and 0-51 cents. On Wednesday morning, a similar deal was made again, but this time for 0.49 cents.
Of course, there are some doubts about whether the bet is made by the original "50 cent" and not by an immitator. So it's good to have one mind on S&P 500.

Currency volatility is surprisingly low (2)

It's not like news to lead to some major trend in the dollar or the euro, according to Maer, an analyst at Deutsche Bank. There is no perception among market participants that the news currently produced will lead to a complete change in the game, said the expert.
As an example, the ruble can be given. In the light of US sanctions, the 1-month volatility of the dollar-ruble currency pair is at a two-year high. However, this is an isolated case, against the backdrop of what is happening with other major currency pairs, experts say.
Even the Chinese president's comments for "an eye for an eye" play would trigger a serious trade war failed to scare investors. Traditionally during trade wars, the dollar is cheaper. However, this does not seem to be the case at the moment.

Currency volatility is surprisingly low (1)

The Russian ruble is cheaper, the Turkish lira is close to a record low against the dollar, and there is speculation about the devaluation of the yuan by the Chinese government. Hardly, however, you will find out all these things if you look at the volatility of currency markets.
The $5.1 trillion dollar market price measure per day is extremely weak, despite the political instability and expectations of a trade war between the US and China.
Deutsche Bank's exchange rate volatility index for the next one and three months is close to a three-month minimum.
The reason - beyond the ruble and the pound, the widely traded couples, such as the euro-dollar and the dollar-yen, have to break through their ranges of trade to see more serious movements and consequently greater volatility, according to market observers.
The lack of more serious news that would point the dollar in one direction and pull it out of its consolidation are among the main reasons for low volatility. In other words, at the moment of struggle, between bulls and bears, no one manages to last forever. This leads to the dollar and other major currency pairs moving to range.

High volatility in the markets will continue in the foreseeable future

The European economy against the backdrop of strong post-crisis economic growth continues to demonstrate a slowdown in inflationary pressures, as well as a noticeable decline in business activity, consumer and business confidence.
Published Tuesday data on the import price index in Germany indicate that after a fairly significant surge last year, and then the same decline in the current rate continued to fall and, according to the information provided, for the first time since November 2016 moved to negative territory.
It was assumed that the price index for imports in Germany in annual terms will fall in February by 0.3% against the increase of the previous year by 0.7%, but it fell by 0.6%. The monthly value of the indicator also showed negative dynamics in February, having decreased by 0.6% with a 0.3% decline forecast and a 0.6% increase in January.
As for the British pound, it is also possible to speak about its probable local decline, if the arrangements for the UK's exit from the European Union slow down. While the expectation of an early resolution of Brexit supports an undervalued pound, and still high inflation stimulates hopes that the Bank of England will raise interest rates already at the May meeting.
In general, observing the world markets and for the currency one in particular, we can state the fact that uncertainty remains, which does not allow investors to concentrate and trade both for raising and lowering. We continue to believe that high volatility in the markets will continue.