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Jerome Powell expects interest rates to rise further

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and President Donald Trump's nominee for Fed's head of office expects interest rates to continue rising from their current levels.
According to him, the FED's goal is to maintain a strong labor market and to move inflation to target levels. In this regard, FED expects the interest rates to rise further from their current values ​​and the size of the balance to gradually decrease.
Powell also said that the Fed's objectives would continue to maintain strong financial system, with financial and regulatory reforms being gradually made.
The key question facing Paul is most likely - how the Fed will continue to sustain and stimulate the third longest expansion in US history and how far the planned regulatory relief for the financial system will be stretched.
While Janet Yelan inherited a relatively weak state economy, still aware of the effects of the debt crisis, Powell will inherit a rather strong economy.
Powell also said that if he was appointed to the post, he would continue to support the growth and progress of the economy to full recovery.

T. Horwitz: Oil is going to be $40, more than over $60

The current rise in oil prices is more a consequence of trading fears of not losing growth as a result of what is happening in the Middle East than a result of OPEC policy, according to Todd Hovitz, chief strategist at Bubatracking.com, quoted by Bloomberg.
Oil premiums are very close to futures, which means that rising oil prices is more of a fear, the expert added.
OPEC and non-cartel countries supporting production cuts are expected to meet in Vienna on 30 November to discuss the continuation of the agreement.
According to Horwitz, the price of oil has little potential for rise from now on. US crude oil, at $58 a barrel, is expected to provide a strong incentive for shale producers to recover supply and are expected to put new downward pressure on oil prices.
There is a better chance for US crude to return to levels of about 40 dollars than to raise to over 60 dollars, the analyst said.

The dollar is the cheapest against the euro since September 25th

The US dollar declined to its lowest level since September 25 against the euro, registering a third consecutive weekly loss.
Concerns that the Fed may not respond to the increased market expectations in terms of the numbers of increases in interest rates have largely determined the depreciation of the US currency.
The US continues to face the dangers of low inflation, even though it operates in full employment.
The dollar index fell 0.39%, reaching the lowest value in two months, at 92.781 points. The index was down 0.9% in the past week.
The euro appreciated by 0.7% at the end of last week, reaching a level of 1.1927 dollars, compared to 1.1850 Thursday. This was the first breach of 1.19 by the end of September. The euro appreciated 1.1% last week.

Hedge funds use the highest leverage since 2015

US hedge funds take up more money to buy shares after the signals of increased dependence between the direction of the US economy and their chosen companies.
Leverage among managers speculating for growth or a decline in stock prices rose this month, near its highest levels of bullish market that began in 2009, according to data from Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
Increased use of borrowed money means that professional managers tend to take more risk after eight years of growth in markets. And while leverage brings greater losses if stock prices are declining, the downward movement this year was minimal.
The broad US state index S&P 500 has its longest series without a 3% correction or more in its history. Apparently hedge funds assume that this trend of good performance will continue.

Deutsche Bank: Watch out for the bitcoin

Deutsche Bank's traders warned their clients to avoid the bitcoin as an investment. Thus, the largest German bank was another major financial institution that indirectly declared war on the cryptocurrency.
Ulrich Stefan, chief investment strategist at the German bank, just would not recommend this to the daily investor, as he said  yesterday.
Stefan has argued that volatility or changes in bitcoin prices are too great, and the regulation of the instrument is too low. He added that German investors are not among the most active in cryptocurrencies so far, but the chimeras associated with the bitcoin are becoming more and more intense.
The bitcoin went beyond the psychological level of $8,000 for the first time during the weekend, and since then has traded permanently above that limit. Its latest trading levels are about $8,200. Increasingly, experts are expecting the cryptocurrency up to $10,000, or even more.
It should be borne in mind, however, that since the beginning of the year, the bitcoin has risen eight times. This has led to repeated warnings that the digital currency is a balloon, including renowned names in the financial world - like Jamie Dimon.
However, individual investors, as well as some hedge funds, are increasingly looking at the bitcoin.
The Swedish Central Bank, for example, is one of the organizations that look at the potential of block technology, its possible wider implementation.

Decline for US indices yesterday

US indices dropped yesterday, with technology and energy companies struggling to dominate the market. The technological index dropped by 0.37% and the energy added 0.44% to its value.
Oil prices rose 1.5% to support energy companies. This happened after the US oil reserves fell in line with market participants' expectations.
Undoubted impact on the market was Yellen's speech at the University of New York. Yelan has suggested that the number of increases in interest rates in the coming year may be lower than expected.
The broad US index S&P 500 rose by about 16% this year. Yesterday the index failed to close above the psychological limit of 2,600 points.
Investors and analysts, however, are raising their expectations for index performance next year, with expectations for a two-digit rise in the index.
Traded volumes were minimal before Thanksgiving today and early closing on Friday. The Volatility Index (VIX) declined for the fifth trading session in a row, being close to its lowest levels for 23 years.
Technological companies were driven by a fall in Hewlett Packard Enterprise's stock of 7.8%, or their biggest decline since 2015. This happened after company manager Meg Whitman announced that she would step down from her post in February next year.

MS: The Australian dollar may fall to 65 US cents

The Australian dollar may fall to its lowest level against the USD since the financial crisis, according to Morgan Stanley forecasts.
The Australian dollar may fall to 65 US cents in 2019, after the Australian central bank's interest rates are expected to fall below those in the US, according to Hans Redeker, an analyst at the bank.
As Australian interest rates fall below those of the US, the currency of the country will break its correlation with the other currencies of developing countries, says Redeker.
The weakness of the Australian currency will also be largely predetermined by competition coming from the currencies of developed countries that attract investor's interest as a source of security.
The additional interest rate of 10-year Australian bonds over that of 10-year US bonds was at 19 basis points yesterday after reaching the 16-year minimum of 15 basis points in June.
The last time the spread between the two interest rates was so small was in 2001, when the Australian dollar fell to 47.76 cents.

UBS: The dollar is heading for a difficult 2018

The US currency will most likely be disappointing next year against the euro, despite the expected continued interest rate hike by the Fed, according to experts from UBS.
The Fed is expected to raise the interest rate three times in the following year. Traditionally an increase in interest is assumed to be good for the US currency, so the forecast is a bit surprising.
Since the beginning of the year, the euro has risen by 11.5% against the dollar.
The financial institution's strategists believe that, fundamentally, the euro remains cheap and a better performance of European economies should channel a further appreciation of the single currency.
The bank expects the dollar to perform well against the Canadian dollar and the Japanese yen next year. The outlook for inflation in Canada remains weak, so the recent appreciation of the Canadian currency may have exhausted its strength.
Strengthening the power of the current Japanese Prime Minister will most likely trigger a further policy of incentives and low interest rates by the central bank. So, the weakness of the Japanese currency is likely to continue with full force, according to UBS.

Short sellers are returning to oil

Once bull bets on brent have reached a historic record and commodity futures have risen to two-year highs, hedge funds are beginning to believe that growth has peaked.
Bets on falling oil prices rose most since June. This, as tensions in the Middle East began to normalize and investors again began to reduce expectations for a unified OPEC position with regard to future production constraints.
Hedge funds have cut their net long positions in Brent by 1% to 537,557 contracts for the week to November 14. At the same time, short stakes have risen by 8.7%.
More and more experts say that oil may not have come out of its range, as OPEC countries are asking for. Or it is entirely possible that the price of oil will return to levels of about 60 dollars per barrel.

L. Fink: Anonymity is at the heart of bitcoin's success (2)

Fink has defined the bitcoin as a very speculative investment. More importantly, however, this is one tool people use for money laundering, according to the expert.
Bitcoin value fell 29 percent from its peak on Nov. 8, at $7,888, after canceling the planned "hard fork" on the cryptocurrency. The rallying of the bitcoin has led many people to begin to say that the bitcoin is a balloon.
Part of their loss, the bitcoin neutralized on Monday. Even despite its decline, the cryptocurrency has risen more than six times since the beginning of the year.
Fink however warned that most investors with long time horizons that hold "record amounts" off the market should rather focus their attention on more traditional assets such as stocks and bonds.
The bitcoin is small in the financial markets, Fink says. The focus is too much on the bitcoin, the expert added. The financier spoke that he did not understand why all this media attention to the bitcoin was.

L. Fink: Anonymity is at the heart of the bitcoin's success (1)

One of the most influential financiers in the world - Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock Inc., said o Monday that the anonymity lies in the basis of bitcoin's success.
The value of bitcoin fluctuated seriously in the last month, as it remains a "speculative investment," Fink said. In fact, Fink is one of the few Wall Street bankers who are not as negative about the cryptocurrency.
We can only recall Jamie Diamond's comments that the bitcoin is a fraud and a bubble that will not end well.
According to Fink, whose company manages assets worth $6 trillion, the reason for the exceptionally good performance of the bitcoin is its anonymity. Anonymity, coupled with the ability to cross borders. In the opinion of the financier, if the bitcoin is legalized, it will be known who is the counterpart, the question is how many people will use it if you need to identify yourself as a buyer or seller.

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A 20% drop in the weekend for the bitcoin

The increase in the cost of bitcoin cash happened in an environment of sharp drop fro the bitcoin. The oldest cryptocurrency lost nearly 20 percent of its peak at $7,900, trading at the minimum of about $6,300 in the weekend.
Trade was tense for the other cryptocurrencies. The ethereum traded stabely at levels of about $300, unable to find a way up until the ripple returned some of the earned and exchanged just over 20 cents a coin.
Now the question is how the news about futures on bitcoin will be reflected on the currency and the fact that GS are clearly preparing to become market makers on the position ...
Will the bitcoin continue to rise, and how much will it cost to pay? When will the ripple start to rise?
Early on Monday morning, the bitcoin cash was traded at levels of about $1,200 for a coin.

Bitcoin cash rose to $2,400 over the weekend - over 300% a week

The great news of the weekend was the extraordinary growth in bitcoin cash. The cryptocurrency began to increase in the past week after it became clear that another "difficult fork" in the bitcoin would not be held.
This renewed interest of investors in bitcoin cash as the only more serious alternative to prevail as a system of payment in bitcoin for faster processing of transactions.
Bitcoin cash rose to the highest value of nearly $2,400. For comparison, the cryptocurrency was traded at the beginning of the week at $600. Or, in just a week, it rose almost four times. About four times, it's the increase in the bitcoin cash for the last month.

GS: The bitcoin looks at $8,000

Since the JPM, and in particular the head of the financial institution, Jamie Diamond, called the bitcoin bubble, which would end bad for investors, obviously by their main competitor GS saw an exceptional investment opportunity.
According to a number of rumors, the investment bank is working to build an infrastructure for offering products on the bitcoin, which can make it the main player and market maker for cryptocurrency.
A growth to over $7,000 was caused by the news that CME is planning to put futures on the bitcoin. This will further strengthen the legal position of the bitcoin and may give GS more advantages.
Apparently the US investment bank is looking very seriously at this project. And this is evident from the last comments of analysts of the financial institution.
According to technical analyst Sheba Jaffari, the bitcoin has the potential to reach at least $7,941. To put it another way, the next limit to which cryptocurrency can start to look more confidently is $8,000.

Gold futures rose during Asian trading

Quotations of gold futures rose during Asian session on Wednesday.
At COMEX, a division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for December delivery are traded at a price of $1.277.93 per troy ounce, up by 0.17%. Gold found support at 1.265.90 dollars and resistance - at 1.285.10 dollars.
Futures on the USD index, showing the ratio of the US dollar to the basket of the six major currencies, decreased by 0.06% and is trading at around 94.75 dollars.
As for other commodities traded on COMEX, silver futures for December delivery rose by 0.40% to $17.007 per troy ounce, while copper futures for December delivery rose by 0.06% to reach the level of 3,089 dollars per pound.

WTI futures rose in price during Asian trade

Quotations for oil futures WTI rose during Asian trading on Wednesday.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI futures for December delivery are traded at a price of $57.03 per barrel, up 0.30%. WTI oil found support at $53.99 and resistance at $57.69.
Futures on the USD index, showing the ratio of the US dollar to the basket of the six major currencies, decreased by 0.06% and is trading at around 94.75 dollars.
As for other goods traded on ICE, futures for Brent crude for January delivery increased by 0.16%, reaching $63.59 per barrel, and the difference in price between Brent crude oil contracts and WTI crude oil was 6.56 dollars per barrel.

That's what may stop the US indices growth

US indexes continue with their records. The S&P 500 index last week saw its longest winning weekly series in four years, after eight consecutive weeks of growth.
A key market test, however, may become a reality when a group of stocks will present its results next week.
Namely, we need to look at the results of the trading sector in relation to the Black Friday. This may be the first sign of market-based cracking.
Stocks of retailers are already 9% down from the beginning of the year, driven by massive industrial pressures and weaker-than-expected results for companies in the sector.
Less-than-expected sales during the "Black Friday" may lead to purchase of put options on the part of investors to protect their portfolios from potential corrections that may happen very soon.
At the moment in the US markets, the situation looks like a party that will never end. But as we all know, every thing has its end.

Carney: Brexit will limit the expansionary policy of BoE

Last week, we witnessed an interesting phenomenon - the British Central Bank raised interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade, and the British currency collapsed against other major currencies.
Contrary to logic, as the interest rate rises the national currency, the depreciation of the pound is explained by the expectation that the ECB will not raise interest soon.
A testimony of this was given by Mark Carney's last statement. The head of the central bank said in a special interview that Bexit's uncertainty could actually hurt the British economy in the short term and thus curb the central bank's ability to further raise interest rates.
Carney also warned that Britain's most affected by the interest rate hike would be mortgage lending for the purchase of property. This is very likely to make property in the UK even more inaccessible.
Brexit is only 508 days away, but for most businesses their alarms are set for much earlier, according to market observers. About 10% of British businesses are already slowly starting to reposition their businesses and move their workforce outside of the UK.

Investors end the cash and this is terrible for the stock

More and more analysts warn that investors' cash deposits have fallen to their lowest levels in history. And this can be terribly bad news for the markets.
It can be interpreted in two directions - first, all are long in the market, or it is the perfect moment for correction. And second, there is no one to support the market with new purchases, with a potential adjustment.
Until now, the share purchase strategy for any 2 to 3% adjustment worked perfectly because investors had enough free funds. What will happen, however, with the next 3% adjustment and who will support the market then?
We can not fail to note the fact that the S&P 500 index has recorded a record long series without a 3% adjustment.
In other words, a new problem emerges in the stock markets - in connection with the lack of cash. Money market assets are at a record low of 17%, while equity investment stocks are also at a record low of 3.3%, according to INTL FCStone.

Apple exceeded expectations

Yesterday, the world's largest market capitalization company, Apple, outperformed analysts' average expectations. It happened only a day after the iconic smartphone iPhone X began selling in Australia with long queues.
Apple shares rose by 4%.
The company predicted first-quarter earnings of between $84 billion and $87 billion, which was in the upper range of average expectations of $84.18 billion.
Apple's market capitalization is already at about $868 billion, and is confidently moving toward the $1 trillion psychological limit. This would be the first company in history with such capitalization.
There are still many questions about the new X Series smartphone and how it will affect the results.
According to experts, if the company fails to meet the enormous demand for the new smartphone by Christmas, consumers will postpone its purchase for May, and may then focus their funds elsewhere.
Apple announced that it had sold 46.7 million iPones in the fourth quarter ended September 30, or above average experts' expectations of 46.4 million. The average selling price, however, has fallen to 618, compared to the forecast of 638 dollars.
The net profit of the company rose to $10.71 billion, or $2.07 per share, from $9.01 billion, or $1.67 a share a year earlier. This was again above analysts' average expectations for a profit of $1.87 per share.

The US economy has added 261,000 jobs

The newly created jobs in the world's largest economy amounted to 261,000 in October. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell again to 4.1%, according to data from the National Labor Office.
This is the lowest unemployment rate since December 2000.
However, the data proved to be slightly below average analysts' expectations. At the same time, employment figures for August were revised upwards from 169,000 to 208,000.
The September data also revised up to an increase of 18,000, compared with an initial decline of 33,000.
Analysts' average expectations were for 313,000 new jobs in October and unemployment rate at 4.2%.
October's pay growth is also disappointing. It turned out to be zero versus 2.4% in the previous month. This greatly reduces inflation expectations in the coming months as well as a December interest rate hike.

T. Lee: Buy the bitcoin at $5,500

Tommy Lee, one of the most bullish analysts in the bitcoin, who predicts that the cryptocurrency will rise to $25,000 by 2022, warned investors to be careful.
The bitcoin has risen to a new historic peak at nearly $7,300, which is an increase of over 60% over the past nearly a month.
While growth is largely predetermined by factors such as the rumors that the CME Group will offer futures on the cryptocurrency, and that Amazon buys crypto-based domains, Lee warns that growth of such magnitude may not be particularly healthy.
The expert advised investors to buy the bitcoin at $5,500, keeping its target for the $25,000 price in 2022.
What does Lee want to say?
That it is quite possible to witness a depreciation of the bitcoin to levels of 5,000-5,500 dollars, which would represent a correction of over 30% of the current bitcoin levels.
It should also be noted that Coinbase has added more than 100,000 users in the last 24 hours following the announcement by CME.

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